Arizona Governor- Race of the Day

 96 Days Until Election Day

Arizona Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

Before we head to the Grand Canyon State, I must take a moment to recognize something. This blog began 20 years ago today. I pretty much started it on a whim. I may have been bored at work at the time. Back then, all sorts of people had Blogger accounts. Today, almost nobody does. Nonetheless, this has been an outlet for me all these years to talk (mostly to myself) about all sorts of things and as long as the Blogger platform exists, (which I doubt will be forever), there is a whole lot of my thoughts to be found. I just wish I could say that I felt the same away about politics as I did 20 years ago, Back then, I was as stalwart a Republican that could be found, and now I am a former Republican. Nonetheless, I am still not a Democrat, even as I find myself rooting for them to win (most) races only because I am so upset with today's Republicans. In any event, the political state of our nation has not been to my satisfaction ever since the Democrats had a big 2006 midterm years. The only relative joy I found since then was really when Donald Trump lost in 2020. However, America persists, with its best days hopefully ahead, and so do I....

 

Arizona used to be a very Republican state, home of Barry Goldwater, John McCain, and others well-known in the party. Today, the party is mostly dominated by conspiracy theorists and election deniers, which is why Democrats have won almost all major statewide races in the Trump era, at least when he himself was not on the ballot. This year, with so many former Republicans (like myself) voting for Democrats (which is perhaps harder for me bother to do in Illinois), a Democrat seems poised to win another term as Governor.

 

Four years ago, then Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, defeated Kari Lake, a one-time Democrat and prominent television news personality turned MAGA Trump ally by just about 17 thousand voters statewide. This was a big win for Democrats, but frankly, many were surprised Lake came as close as she did. In that election cycle, she had become an ultra-polarizing figure and I was generally wondering at the time if she was a performance artist or if she actually believed the things said. Hobbs ran a fairly cautious campaign and refused to debate Lake. It was for those reasons I was wavering at the time if Lake might actually win in what should have been a bad midterm year for Democrats. She lost though and has never conceded the election, following the lead of Donald Trump and claiming it was stolen from her. She persisted with that even into a 2024 U.S. Senate race which she lost by over three points.

 

Now, Hobbs is seeking reelection and did not face a challenge for re-nomination. While she has had some battles with a Republican legislature, her job performance numbers have been modestly high. She is not seek as the kind of politician who might have her eyes on the White House though, unlike Arizona's two Democrat U.S. Senators. 

 

Republicans looked ahead to 2026 thinking that a stronger candidate might be able to take out Hobbs. Initially, there was much attention on Karrin Taylor Robson, a businesswoman and former member of the State Board of Regents. She had lost a competitive primary to Lake for Governor in 2022. This time, she went out of her way to appeal to Donald Trump and she received a jolt of good luck when he endorsed her for Governor in late 2024. However, the endorsement did not wind up being "full and total.": A staunch Trump ally, Congressman Andy Biggs entered the race weeks later and in April of last year, Trump endorsed hm too. For a while, both candidates claimed, accurately, to have the Trump endorsement, but it appeared MAGA preferred Biggs, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, who was one of the most prominent voices in declaring that Trump was the rightful winner in 2020. By February, Robson decided that another primary campaign was not worth it and dropped out of the race, leaving Biggs as the sole Trump endorsed candidate, and one who was not considered to have the potential general election appeal that Robson might have had.

 

Biggs did not have the Republican field to himself though. Three other candidates ran, including Biggs' U.S. House colleague David Schweikert. A conservative, but somewhat iconoclastic Congressman, Schweikert had entered the House six years before Biggs, He had recently survived some tough reelection battles amid changing district lines and questions about his finances and ethics. In 2012, Schweikert had won a House primary running in the same district as his colleague Ben Quayle, but he posed no real threat to Biggs in the contest this year for Governor. Biggs, a member of the LDS Church and onetime State Senate President, had once won $10 million before entering politics in ther American Publishers Clearing House Sweepstakes won the July sweepstakes for a Gubernatorial nomination 74-14 over Schweikert.

 

It must be noted that this is the first election where Arizona will also have a Lt. Governor elected.The position currently does not exist and now both nominees must select somebody. As of now, both choices are pending. I think they will probably both pick someone of the opposite gender. Biggs selecting Karrin Taylor Robson may make sense, but it is unknown if she would even want the job. Hobbs has been said to have been trying to reach out to someone associated with the old McCain wing of the Republican Party, including perhaps the late Senator's son Jimmy, a military veteran who now sits on the state's Board of Regents. Jimmy McCain has been said to be interested in a political future and he and his mother Cindy are openly supporting the reelection of Hobbs. Apparently though, he has turned down a chance to run for Lt. Governor in Arizona as a Democrat.

 

Something else that may or may not a factor is that the person who won the leftist Green Party nomination for Governor is actually a MAGA supporter. Republicans will hope this somehow works to their benefit against the Democrat.

 

Arizona is a state where a competitive general election is a given.Trump won the battleground state by over points over Kamala Harris in 2024  Biggs does not generate heat perhaps the way Kari Lake did, but he is still a pretty hard-right candidate. He has though tried to learn from the recent failures of other Arizona Republican candidates by speaking of past political alliances with John McCain and trying to appeal to those who still like him. Kari Lake once all but told McCain Republicans to "get the hell out."

 

Polls have shown the incumbent Hobbs with a lead over Biggs, but with many undecided voters. This time around, she will have to debate her opponent. Neither one of them probably come across on television. The bottom line is that most voters do not seem angry enough at Hobbs to want to fire her. On the other hand, there is a lot of anti-Trump motivation in this mid-term election and once again, Arizona Republicans have nominated a slew of candidates, including Andy Biggs, who are not putting any distance between themselves and an unpopular President. The economy and immigration issues helped Trump stage a comeback there two years ago, but the same issues, including potential backlash among Latino Trump voters regarding the levels and tactics of mass deportation may hurt Republicans this time. 

 

For now, this race Leans towards Hobbs and the Democrats. Before all is said and done, it may even more into Likely territory. 

 

  

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

2 D, (1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 1 R (I Likely)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

8 D (6 holdover, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 9 R (8 holdover, 1 Likely)