Illinois Governor- Race of the Day

 80 Days Until Election Day

Illinois Governor

 

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Likely Democrat

 

In all of my years watching politics in my home state of Illinois, this is the least active Gubernatorial race I can remember in terms of news. Of course, that means I will still proceed to write entirely too much about the contest.

 

Two-term ncumbent JB Pritzker is looking to become the longest serving Governor of Illinois since Republican Jim Thompson served for 14 years. Already, Pritzker recently became the longest Democrat to ever hold the office, which is pretty incredible to consider that no other Governor of that party ever served a full eight years. He is well on his way to a third straight victory in the Land of Lincoln but it is fair to say that he is not looking to break any more records. Pritzker clearly has his eyes set on Washington D.C. and the deep pocketed billionaire especially wants to be President of the United States (although one can imagine he would probably not turn down a Cabinet post in a Democrat Administration if offered.)

 

Leading up to this year, there was much speculation as to if Pritzker would seek a third term. It had looked like he planned to but there were many who thought that it would be far easier to run for President without the burden of a complicated day job. Ultimately, he decided he wanted to hold on to the office, perhaps as a fall-back if nothing else, but will clearly continue to raise his national profile from the Governorship. He has become pretty powerful in Illinois. Past Governors of both parties were often overshadowed in the state by the Mayor of Chicago or the Speaker of the General Assembly. Both of those offices have been significantly weakened over the past few years though and of course part of the story will be regarding the often fraught relationship the Governor has with the unpopular African-American Mayor and the increasingly steeped in scandal African-American Speaker.

 

In other ways, Pritzker is a smaller man than he used to be and that is part of the story as he prepares for a possible Presidential bid. He was of course quite fat and Donald Trump has been known to make note of that. The Governor has undergone a considerable weight loss though (as has his wife.) I thought that maybe he had some surgery, but it appears he is taking weight loss drugs, although he has been reluctant to confirm that publicly. Trump still makes jokes about Pritzker's size, but these days, he looks more trim than the President. There was a brief issue in May where he had visited a Springfield hospital due to some sort of urology complication and his staff initially lied to the press about the visit.

 
The very wealthy heir to the Hyatt hotel fortune, who had his own career in the private sector was first elected Governor by a solid margin in 2018 over another wealthy Governor, a Republican considered a fluke victor four years earlier. Since Republican Jim Edgar left office in 1999, a series of Illinois Governors, of both parties, had been consumed with legal and political problems and a couple would wind up in prison. Pritzker though has been a far more powerful Governor with better poll numbers, if not totally beloved in the state. While Illinois has become increasingly a one party dominated state, there is also the reality that many residents here are quite upset or uncertain about the stability of the state and its future economically and socially. Jobs, the economy, crime, taxes, and illegal immigration have been real problems. Democrats have been running everything for a while now (even during a four year period of an unsuccessful Republican Governor) but the current Republican Party seems to be in no position to capitalize. 

 

In 2022, Pritzker won reelection by a 55-42 margin over then Republican State Senator Darren Bailey. Frankly, the margin should have been higher than it was. Also a very portly politician, Bailey is a farmer from southern Illinois who speaks with a country twang that sounds downright foreign in the Chicago area. That year, he came out of political obscurity to defeat several Republican opponents who either were considered more moderate than the staunchly conservative Bailey or who did not come from the geographic region that he did. Donald Trump saw some polls showing Bailey ahead of the primary field and offered an endorsement. That helped solidify a massive primary victory and a blow to whatever remained of the once vaunted Illinois GOP establishment. With the 2022 defeat of Governor Bruce Rauner and other very rich Illinois Republicans packing up and leaving the state, the financial and organizational apparatus of the state party has become very weak and is now dominated by a base of very conservative voters in a certain Downstate part of Illinois. This makes it difficult for anyone not favored there to win a primary, but also produces nominees who seem far less capable of competing in Chicagoland anywhere near to the extent that would be needed to win statewide.

 

Pritzker was able to overwhelm Bailey on the airwaves and paint him as a right-wing extremist. It certainly did not help that Bailey had continued to generate numerous gaffes and negative headlines, including after a mass shooting incident on July 4, and when he called Chicago a "hellhole." Pritzker's victory was never in doubt that the fact that he has twice won with 55 percent shows there is still a group of voters in the state who are not sold on the Democrat. This will probably be a topic of conversation in the national media next year if Pritzker runs for President. Many Democrats respect his staunch liberal stances but he is a billionaire in a party where many think billionaires should not even exist and he is a Jewish politician (along with others in the party who are likely to run for President) where there is also a flashpoint these days. If nothing else, we can say that a stronger Republican nominee in 2022 would have come even closer in the Gubernatorial race.

 

The same can be said again this cycle. We have a rematch on our hands and the margin will likely be just about the same, if not a somewhat stronger victory for Pritzker in a Trump midterm cycle. For one thing, Bailey's financial resources are going to be even more limited this year.  

After his loss four years ago, it was seen as doubtful that Bailey might run again for Governor. Instead, he launched a 2024 Congressional primary challenge to incumbent Congressman Mike Bost, by running to his right. Bailey had hoped and perhaps even assumed Trump would endorse him again, and he even made some trips to Mar A Lago, but the then Presidential candidate endorsed the incumbent instead and that pretty much ruined any hopes for Bailey. The margin only came down to two points though on Primary day, which came as a surprise to many. It definitely shows that at least in his home region, Bailey has lots of fans.

 

Now of of the State Senate, Bailey announced another run for Governor and it looked like it would be possible for him to once again win over divided opposition. His three Republican opponents were all from the Chicagoland area and campaigned on the rationale that Bailey would be unelectable in a general election. This time, Trump made no endorsement, but Bailey who took 57 percent against five opponents in the last primary with that endorsement, still won in March of this year with 53 percent against three opponents. His closest competitor was Ted Dabrowski a conservative news source online publisher who had a lot of conservatives from the Chicago area endorse him. That was not nearly enough though as he was held to just 29 percent. Pritzker did not face a primary challenge but was heavily involved in trying to sway some other races that day and was pretty successful in those efforts.

 

During the course of the primary campaign, there was briefly a question as to whether Bailey would stay in the race. He and his wife, who has been much a part of his political career, suffered an immeasurable family tragedy in October of last year when his son, daughter in law, and two young grandchildren were killed in a Montana helicopter crash. A 10 year old grandson was not onboard with the rest of his immediate family. The Baileys decided to continue with the campaign and regardless of politics, it is hard to not feel sympathy for them after such a loss.

 

In Illinois, candidates in the primaries run with their designated choice for Lt. Governor and are nominated as a ticket together. For the Democrats, Pritzker had to pick a new candidate since the incumbent Lt Governor Julianna Stratton decided to run for an open U.S. Senate seat. For several months, Stratton seemed to be struggling in that contest but Pritzker endorsed her early on and in the final weeks spent millions of dollars on Super PAC ads propping Stratton up and attacking her main primary rival. The African-American female Lt. Governor would win that race and is likely soon to be a Senator and pretty much has Pritzker to thank for all of that (I will talk about that race more in the next edition.) The Governor definitely hopes the efforts are appreciated by South Carolina primary voters, most of whom are black, in the months ahead. For this contest, he picked another African-American runningmate, and Christian Mitchell, a former State Representative who served in Pritzker's first term in the post of Deputy Governor will be the person who would become Illinois's first black Governor if Pritzker is elected this year and then leaves office before his term. Mitchell is also an active member of the Illinois National Guard, a unit that Trump has threatened to federalize due to crime in Chicago. Part of the story of Mitchell is that the former amateur has a reputation in political circles for having "sharp elbows" and has had some heated disputes, mostly with Democrats, during the time he was Deputy Governor.

 

Bailey also has a new runningmate this cycle. The African-American conservative female talk show host from Chicagoland he ran with last time endorsed Dabrowski in the primary. Now, the Republican Lt. Governor candidate is Aaron Del Mar, Filipino-American businessman (some of his early business ventures were of the risque variety.) He has held local office and has been for almost a decade now the Palatine Township Highway Commissioner in suburban Cook County, not exactly an influential post (and he was also the Republican Committeeman from there and for a time Cook County Republican Chairman.) Apparently, my family once knew some of his relatives during the time I was growing up. In 2022, Del Mar was the running-mate of another Gubernatorial candidate and even after that race ended he and Bailey had some harsh words for each other. This year, Del Mar considered running for Governor himself (which I find the concept pretty implausible) but instead made a pact with Bailey to join forces on a ticket and put bygones aside.

 

In this general election, Trump has still not issued any sort of endorsement for Bailey, and the candidate may prefer that. In some ways, Bailey has been trying to run a less divisive campaign this time around. He went before the Chicago City Council and apologized for his past comments about the city. He has even gone online to criticize those who have made fun of Pritzker's weight and made note of his own personal struggles. While very closely associated with the Evangelical community and anti-abortion politics, Bailey has said that as Governor he knows he would not be able to change the law in Illinois and would not attempt to do so. Since the overturning of Roe vs. Wade, Illinois has become sort of an abortion mecca in the Midwest, which Pritzker is proud of. In the past couple of weeks though, the Lt. Governor nominee Del Mar made some comments by appearing before a Pro-Life group and calling abortion a "sin before G-d." The Bailey campaign clarified that Del Mar was speaking purely in his personal capacity.

 

Let there be no doubt, Pritzker is going to defeat Bailey again. Why am I not calling this race Safe Democrat? Eventually, I might, but there is pretty much one specific issue that is not necessarily going to help make Bailey a more palatable option to some, but instead will cause voters to want to vote against Pritzker. That is if the Chicago Bears move to Indiana. Right now, the team is saying they are preparing to do so and the State of Indiana has gleefully passed legislation designed to lure the Bears slightly across state lines to Hammond. Until shovels are in the ground though, this is not a done deal and I am continuing to hope that the Bears wind up, as they had previously been planning to, building a new stadium in my hometown of Arlington Heights, Illinois, and thus keeping the team in Cook County.

 

This has been a very complicated and messy matter and Republicans of course are trying to pin it on Pritzker if the Bears leave Illinois. There is the matter of local school districts here in the suburbs who have not agreed to some tax matters that might not need to happen if the Bears are to build on the site of the former Arlington Park horse racing facility. The Bears ownership and team President have given off numerous mixed messages over the past couple of years and appear to be greedy in the way they want taxpapyers to subsidize a new stadium. While Indiana has been agreeable, Illinois thus far has not been able to pass a deal. This has mostly happened recently though because Brandon Johnson, the unpopular and likely one term and out Chicago Mayor has gone to lengths to prevent Arlington Heights from getting the stadium. Despite what Johnson has said, there is no realistic path to keep the Bears inside the actual City of Chicago. So, he would rather than go to Indiana than build in the Chicago suburbs. Pritzker will claim that he is standing up for the taxpayers of Illinois against millionaire owners of a sports team who are unwilling to cooperate, but it would still be a pretty significant loss for Pritzker as Governor (and his future ambitions) if the Bears leave Illinois. As I said, there is a lot of blame to go around, but I find it pretty hard to give Pritzker a complete pass. He has enormous political power in the state, especially among Democrats, and has gotten most of what he wanted through the legislature. With Democrats holding a supermajority in Springfield, I find it hard to believe he could not have found a way to twist more arms to get a deal done to finance the building of a new stadium in Illinois, at least not yet. So, this is still lingering and is probably going to cost Pritzker four or five points on the margins.

 

All things considered though, there is not much drama in this race. There is not much drama for anything in Illinois this November. I did vote in the Democrat primary this March (for reasons I will get more into in discussing the Senate race) but left the Gubernatorial portion blank. While I appreciate some of the ways Pritzker has taken on Donald Trump, I am not really a fan of the Governor. (I wrote someone in four years ago when Pritzker and Bailey first faced off.) Where I live, I do not anticipate a single competitive contest anywhere on my ballot at any level of government. All races will be won by the Democrat with or without my vote and I am certainly not willing to vote for any Trump Republicans. Pritzker is not taking any chances though and he certainly has the money to spend. He has been running ads on television since the primary ended. Recently, he put out a video in Spanish saying that Donald Trump is a racist and Darren Bailey wants to be just like him. The Republican took the bait by putting out a video response in which he accused the Governor of calling him a racist, which technically he sort of did and sort of did not do at the same time. Bailey's main point was that Pritzker was being too mean when there are more important issues facing voters. In a sense, he is right, but it's not going to matter. So much of our politics is about Trump and anybody who has worked so hard to stand with Donald Trump needs to be held accountable for that.

 
So, I have seriously considered not even voting this year, but that would feel wrong as an American. There is an Independent option on the ballot in my state this year for Governor. Colliu Corbett is a suburban Chicago based political consultant, who worked to elect Republicans. I do not know him personally, but he saw something I posted (I think about the Bears issue) on Twitter/X and was kind enough to follow me. His runningmate is Carolyn Schofield, a former McHenry County Board Member. In 2022, she ran for Lt. Governor on a ticket that finished back in the pack among Republicans. So essentially, they represent the lingering remnants of the Illinois GOP establishment I once devoted many years to supporting in state and local elections. Corbett is running as a moderate alternative to the far-right Bailey and the far-left Pritzker. These days, we need far more sensible, serious people willing to run as Independents. The Bailey campaign tried unsuccessfully to keep this ticket off the November ballot and amazingly sent out a fundraising email saying that Corbett could take "half of his votes." Well, half of Bailey's votes might not amount to a whole lot this year, but what does that say about Bailey's confidence in this campaign?

 

I know Corbett does not have a realistic chance of being competitive, but by being in the race (and by following me on Twitter), I guess I will do my civic duty this year after all and cast a ballot for him.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

7 D, (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 5 R (2 Safe, I Likely, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

13 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 3 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 13 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Tossup)