New Hampshire Governor- Race of the Day

 55 Days Until Election Day

New Hampshire Governor

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

Every two years, the Granite State elects a Governor. Only one other state can claim that. It has also been a pretty good political assumption that a new Governor will be given more leeway from the voters the first time they are up for reelection after just their first two years. In 2024, Republican Kelly Ayotte was elected Governor by 10 points, even as Donald Trump was losing the state to Kamala Harris by three points. These are major reasons why she should be considered a strong favorite to win a second term. At the same time though, national wave elections, for one side of the other, tend to be felt strongly in New Hampshire, radiating down to the hundreds of legislative districts that exist in the small state. If this is indeed a very bad cycle for Republicans, Ayotte will have to work even harder and this race could become a sleeper. For now though, the incumbent seems to be a good political fit.

Democrats have indeed won every major federal election in New Hampshire for the past several cycles, while the state has been more willing to elect a Republican as Governor. This year, there will be an open Senate seat that Democrats were counting on but may have to fight it out to the end, plus an open Congressional seat in a somewhat competitive district. 

Ayotte was the last Republican to win a Senate race in the state. In 2010, a strong wave year for the GOP,  she won an open Senate seat with 60 percent of the vote. A promising young political figure, who first gained notice as the legislature appointed Attorney General of New Hampshire, Ayotte looked primed for a long career on Capitol Hill. Things changed dramatically though in 2016, when with Donald Trump leading the Republican ticket, she lost her Senate seat to the state's sitting Democrat Governor 48-48, and by a total over a thousand votes. A conservative Independent candidate likely cost her the job, as Ayotte had struggled to deal with Trump and had alternated between a cautious endorsement and then rescinding it not long before the election after the infamous Access Hollywood tape came out. Many Trump voters skipped voting for the then Senator. Trump also lost New Hampshire narrowly, while the open Governorship was picked up by a Republican.

 

Out of office, Ayotte passed on opportunities to try a Senate comeback but focused on running for Governor in 2024. By this time, Trump's dominance of the Republican Party was complete and she was more willing to openly support him and focus on issues such as illegal immigration as she ran in a primary and won 63-34 over an opponent who had also moved in a more MAGA direction. Even as Trump lost New Hampshire for the third straight time, voters seemed happy with the record of the outgoing moderate Republican Governor and comfortably elected Ayotte to succeed him.

 

In that cycle, Democrat Cinde Warmington lost her primary for Governor 48-42 against another female candidate who was considered somewhat more centrist. Warmington held the job of Executive Councillor at the time, which is a sort of unique elected fourth branch of state government. The opioid addiction epidemic bad become a big issue in the state and the candidate was hurt by her past lobbying work for the industry.

Warmington ran again this year and New Hampshire Democrats must have felt it was her turn to take on Ayotte. Yesterday,  she was unopposed for the nomination. Joyce Craig, the 2024 Gubernatorial nominee who had defeated Warmington before losing to Ayotte refused to issue an endorsement however.  The third place candidate from that primary, a blue collar type guy, had tried to run again this cycle, then announced he would seek the Governorship as an Independent, but failed to make the general election ballot. Ayotte took 92 percent among Republicans yesterday against two minor opponents.

 

There seem to be genuine concerns among Democrats that Warmington is not raising enough money for this race. It is a possibility that the contest for Governor will fall in attention behind the state's federal elections. Democrats though are hoping that in any New England state, the Republican label this year will be a huge anchor. Polls are showing the incumbent ahead by a few points, but with enough undecided voters to prevent me from labeling this race as "Likely Republican." That could be where it is headed though.

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

12 D  (2 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 2Tossup)

  9 R  (2 Safe, I Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

18 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

17 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)