Massachusetts U.S. Senate- Race of the Day
66 Days Until Election Day
This year, two incumbent Republican Senators have failed to be re-nominated in primaries. Tuesday will tell if a Democrat from Massachusetts will join them. While the dynamics and many trends of this cycle could point to yes, I am betting no.
At the age of 81, Ed Markey is running for another six year Senate term. He has been in elected office for basically his entire adult life, winning his first race in 1972. Four years later, Markey won elected to Congress and served there for decades, and even as he rose in seniority and influence, continued to harbor a desire to move up to the Senate. Massachusetts Senators tend to stick around for a while though and Markey's chance did not come until 2013 when he won a special election to replace then Secretary of State John Kerry. Since then, Markey has had no trouble winning general elections but faced a primary in 2020 from Congressman Joe Kennedy III, the young scion of the most famous family among Democrats, especially in the Bay State. Markey looked like he could be in trouble, but liberal activists, including many young ones, rallied to his side, and the incumbent won by 10 points, perhaps seriously damaging the current day aura of the Kennedy name politically.
Clearly, lots of ambitious Democrats were hoping Markey would hang it up in 2026. The issue of age in politics has become more pressing, especially after so many Democrats regret that nobody tried to stop Joe Biden from seeking a second term in 2024 and what the end result of that situation brought about, besides Donald Trump merely being another very old President. With margins so tight in both the House and Senate, in very polarized times, there is a big risk for elderly Members either dying in office of having health challenges that limits their work or availability to cast crucial votes. With the very liberal Markey, who currently appears to be in good health, running again, it took away any real opportunity for someone on his left to challenge. One leftist candidate did run for a while, but later dropped out and backed Markey. However, Congressman Seth Moulton did run.
Just a couple of years older than the young Kennedy, Markey was always in Congress when Moulton was born in 1978. A Harvard graduate, he joined the Marine Corps and served multiple tours in Iraq, and says his difficult experiences there influenced him to run for office. He considered running in 2012 as an Independent against the besieged incumbent Democrat in his U.S. House district, then challenged him in a 2014 and won by 11 points. Secure in his district, Moulton sometimes clashed with party leaders in Congress as he advocated for new leadership. In 2019, the Congressman launched a long-shot bid for President, along with a huge cast of others that cycle, but his campaign only lasted a few months.
After the damaging 2024 loss for Democrats, Moulton appeared to be inching to the right. He criticized his party for the stance that many on the left had regarding transgender females aka biological boys, in girls sports. That was clearly a mainstream position he was espousing as the father of daughters himself, but a backlash developed against Moulton and his campaign manager ever quit. By this point, it looked like Moulton had enough of the lower chamber and was willing to gamble on a Senate bid. In doing so, he has seemed to be careful to not want to be seen as purely a more centrist alternative to Markey. He realizes that such a positioning would make it more difficult to win a primary, but in moving to the left on some matters, Moulton might have hurt his authenticity factor.
Clearly, the challenger in this race is hoping that concerns about Markey's age are at the forefront of voters' minds. There have been instances in U.S. House primaries where longtime incumbents have lost to other Democrats. In some of those, it was a candidate running to the left that won, but in at least one case, it appeared to purely be about age and the desire to elect someone "new" as a lot of Democrats are just thoroughly disappointed (while perhaps not understanding legislative or political realities) in responding to the Trump Administration. In this campaign, Markey has been saying that while he may not have a hugely different voting record than the incumbent, Markey has been largely ineffective in all his years in Washington and he is not grasping the issues of today on such things as AI in a way that is needed. In other words, he is old, and in some ways, Markey does appear to be an old school political relic.
Whomever wins on Tuesday will then face off against Republican John Deaton an attorney and Marine Corps veteran. Deaton is considered relatively moderate on social issues, but his big passion is seen as cryptocurrency. He was endorsed by the State Party at an April convention and is not being challenged in a primary, In 2024, Deaton easily won a three way Republican primary for the state's other Senate seat, but then lost in November 60-40.
I should also point out that the race this year features a few Independent candidates, including a former City Councilman and Republican Congressional nominee in 2008. The ballot will also have the name of Shiva Ayyadural, a computer scientist who claims to have invented email. He has been running for offices, including President, consistently over the past few cycles and also used to date actress Fran Drescher (who recently served in Ronald Reagan's old job as the SAG President) and the two said they were married at one point but were not legally married.
Despite the cast of characters, the Republican Deaton is not going to be a threat to win this race. He will likely to slightly worse against either Democrat than he did against Elizabeth Warren two years ago. The Senate seat will basically be decided next week. Being over 80 and being a longtime incumbent may not be a positive thing, especially among this year's Democrat electorate, but Markey does have a very consistent progressive identity and is once again backed by influential younger leaders in the party such as Alexandria Ocasio- Cortez. The incumbent also has the party establishment behind him, although the Governor, up for reelection herself, has not publicly stated a side.
Several weeks back, some polls showed this could be a competitive primary, but the latest ones are pointing to a coalescing behind Markey. In Massachusetts, among Democrats, it helps to be seen as far to the left as possible. I expect the incumbent to win once again on Tuesday and next year will be back on Capitol Hill to start his second half-century of service. Seth Mouton will be leaving Washington, but probably will get to be seen frequently as a talking head on cable news.
posted by Corey @ Saturday, August 29, 2026
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