Tennessee Governor- Race of the Day

31 Days Until Election Day

Tennessee Governor

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Likely Republican

 

It appears near certain that Tennessee will this year will join the majority of states by electing its first female Governor, Both major party nominees are women and the heavy favorite is the one who has also been the first female U.S. Senator in Volunteer State history.

 

Republican Governor Bill Lee is unable to seek a third term, so the office is open in a state Democrats have not won since 2006. In fact, every Gubernatorial election since has been a landslide in favor of the Republican candidate. For several reasons, this year's race may produce at least a somewhat closer result, but few actually believe that Democrat Jeri Green, a Memphis City Councilwoman can win a general election.

 

At attorney, Green won a five way primary in August with 69 percent of the vote, as she was clearly the established favorite of her party for this race. While Green is white, African-Americans, as is the case in several other southern states, now play an outsize role in deciding primaries for Democrats. The second place candidate was a black woman named Carnita Atwater, but she took just 18 percent. She had taken 22 percent while finishing third out of three in the 2022 Gubernatorial primary and the next year, was way back in the pack of the field for Memphis Mayor, in what is the few remaining areas of Democrat strength in Tennessee.

 

On the Republican side, a lot of ambitious politicians likely wanted to run for Governor, but most deferred when it was clear that the state's senior U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn wanted the job. One of those who had considered running was the state's other Senator Bill Hagerty, and that might have made for an unusual primary situation, but he instead decided to seek reelection.

 

The primary was far from a cakewalk for Blackburn, a former beauty pageant contestant and businesswoman, She won with just 44 percent while Congressman John Rose took 33 percent. A State Representative named Monty Fritts, who was a self identified Christian Nationalist, and who held a number of other far right views, took the remainder of the vote which was approximately 23 percent.. Donald Trump did not make a primary endorsement.

 

Some were likely surprised that Blackburn only defeated Rose by a total of about 11 points (and frankly the showing for Fritts should have been concerning on its own.)  Both Blackburn and Rose are quite conservative so there was not a whole lot of ideological differences between the two main candidates. Rose, a former appointed state Agriculture Commissioner, came to Congress in 2019 and is 61 years old.  (He also happens to be 24 years older than his wife whom he has known since she was a child and married when she turned 21.) Blackburn is 74 years old. She also held a post in state government, followed by four years in the State Senate and then election to Congress in 2002. In 2018, she easily captured an open Senate seat over a former Democrat Governor who had been popular, showing just how Republican Tennessee had become. Her candidacy seemed to cause an incumbent Republican Senator, disliked by Trump, to not run again knowing he would face an uphill primary against the very MAGA Blackburn.  Two years ago, Blackburn had little trouble winning reelection against a somewhat nationally known female opponent, even as it was clear she had an interest in running for Governor instead of serving a six year term in the Senate.

 

Throughout her political career, Blackburn has been thought of as an effective and telegenic politician, while perhaps not exactly an intellectual powerhouse. She has leaned heavily into cultural issues and has been an unyielding supporter of Trump during her time in the Senate. There have also been whispers, some louder than others, that the Senator has maybe lost a step or two at her age. Holding the office of Governor is definitely somewhat of a different job than being one out of 100 Senators. For all the talk about potential cognitive decline seen during Joe Biden's Presidency, and what people say about Trump now (including his frequent bouts of falling asleep on camera), some of this may also be an issue for Blackburn as she is firmly in her mid 70s. She refused to take part in any Republican primary debates and is taking the same stance in a general election. Blackburn has seemed to be reluctant to interact with the media at all. This June, while in Tennessee a local reporter tried to ask her some questions and she awkwardly avoided answering any saying she was on "federal time." There was no such restriction under law that would have prevented her from speaking about state issues or her campaign for Governor.

 

I happen to believe that if Blackburn debated her opponent Green (or anyone else for that matter), it would raise a lot of concerns for voters about her capacity to do the job. Tennessee is heavily Republican though, so even in the current political environment, she probably is not going to be denied this electoral win. The citizens will then have to deal with her performance as Governor, for better or worse. Green is a credible candidate for Democrats but is probably considered too far to the left. The state has had a lot of political turmoil in recent years regarding fights in the legislature over gun control, which resulted in the expulsion of African-American legislators (who then promptly won their seats back) and a recent redistricting, supported by Blackburn, which will seemingly make the Congressional delegation 9-0 in favor of Republicans. There is definitely a lot of motivation for black voters in the state to express themselves in a statewide race, but there is probably a limit as to how far that can go. This week, there was a botched execution of a woman in Tennessee, who remains alive. Blackburn has said the state should bring back the electric chair instead of relying on lethal injection. The whole story is very disturbing, but frankly she may have a point about Ol' Sparky. Green is a former public defender who wants a full moratorium on the death penalty.

 

All sorts of Independent candidates wind up qualifying for the Tennessee ballot and there will be options for protest votes. The only two really being watched though is businessman David Hatley, who presents himself as a mainstream conservative alternative and former college professor Laura Pinkston, who says she is a moderate. In theory, either or both of them could take votes of people who do not like the ideological extremes of both parties, but seemingly Blackburn would have the most to lose in this scenario. A poll sponsored by a group backing Green had Hatley in double digits with 10 percent and Pinkston with two percent, while still showing Blackburn ahead of the Democrat 45-36. 

 

Without any non-partisan polling showing a competitive race, it is hard to say that this really is one, although it would not shock me if that were to be the case this year. With Blackburn largely trying to stay out of public view in the campaign there just may not be too many opportunities to convince voters they should avoid picking the Republican, as most have been doing for a while. 

 

If as expected, Blackburn is elected Governor, she will get to pick her replacement for the U.S. Senate. A lot of people will want the job, but I have a feeling that the Trump Administration might look at this opening as a way to find a new spot to someone they want to either reward for losing a race somewhere or they just want out of the Executive Branch, even if they do not have any actual ties to Tennessee. Almost certainly, Blackburn will go along with whatever Trump wants. Keep an eye on Pete Hegseth.

 

  

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

19 D (2 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

13 R (2 Safe, 5 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

25 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

21 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 5 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)