Louisiana U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 72 Days Until Election Day

 

Louisiana U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Likely Republican

 

Decisions by elected officials definitely have consequences. When Senator Bill Cassidy joined a handful of his colleagues in voting to convict Donald Trump early in 2021 in his second Impeachment trial, he likely did not expect Trump would remain on the political scene or that Republican voters would remain supportive of him. Thus, Cassidy saw his political career come to an end the next time he was on the ballot, despite a concerted effort to try to get back in MAGA's good races.

 

While once a Democrat, as many Louisiana Republicans once were, Cassidy, a physician, was elected to the Louisiana Senate in 2006 and the U.S. House in 2008. In the strong Republican year of 2014, he took an incumbent Democrat Senator into a runoff and then as expected took the seat from her in that runoff. Cassidy's 2020 reelection was basically a non-event politically. Recently, Louisiana election laws have changed that put the voting more in line with other states (although some old rules apply this year in the districts that have been changed by Republicans to win more seats, as part of a widespread effort in red states) . There is no longer a statewide jungle primary where he would just need to advance into a top two for a runoff where maybe Democrats would be willing to support him against a MAGA Republican. He would have to find a way to advance into the final two of a May primary, just to try to hope to get into a June Republican runoff, where he would race even longer odds. As it is, he never got that far.

Cassidy said he voted to convict Trump as a matter of conscience and despite others who found themselves in the same position retiring or being defeated, decided to seek reelection in a red state. The Senator has maintained a largely conservative voting record but faced much scrutiny over his role as Chairman of the Senate Health Committee and the nomination by Trump of longtime Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr to be HHS Secretary. As a doctor, Cassidy voiced concerns over Kennedy's longstanding opposition to vaccines but said he received assurances on the matter and he voted for the confirmation. As to be expected, Cassidy was played and Kennedy has not acted the way he said, leaving the Senator both upset and helpless over the whole situation, which he could have prevented.

 

Needless to say, Trump was intent on seeing Cassidy lose in 2026 and several Republicans entered the field. Several of these candidates, who had either run for statewide office before or held local office, dropped out of the race, some for other contests, after Trump endorsed a candidate he recruited into the race. For whatever reason, he did not seem satisfied with any of the other Republicans who were challenging Cassidy at the time.

 

In 2020, when she was 39, her husband Luke Letlow a businessman and former Congressional staffer won a December runoff to win an open U.S. House seat in a Republican district. During the course of that campaign though, Luke Letlow contracted Covid, and died later that month at age 41 before he could ever be sworn in to Congress. His widow Julia was left to raise their two young children ( I learned today she got engaged at the White House late last year) and also decided to run in the special election for that House seat. She had never run for office before but has a Ph.D and a career in university administration including for a medical school. Easily winning that special election in 2021, Julia Letlow has been a reliable vote for Trump in Congress. Early in 2026, Trump posted his endorsement of her for the Senate, before she announced a candidacy, but it was clear at that point that it was something she had agreed to do.

 

Only one other major Republican remained in the race along with Cassidy and Letlow and all three had the title doctor and had jobs related to the medical field. Also a physician, John Fleming was elected as Louisiana State Treasurer in 2023. Before that, he had served eight years in Congress before finishing in fifth place in a 2016 jungle primary for a U.S. Senate seat. He then held a couple of relatively minor posts during Trump's first term. Fleming positioned himself as the true Trump conservative in the race and looked competitive in the polling. but there would only be two spots in the inevitable runoff. Letlow finished first on the Saturday primary with 44 percent and then Fleming took 28 percent over Cassidy who took 25 percent and was eliminated. Cassidy conceded that night, taking some shots at Trump along the way and did not take sides in the runoff. His supporters may have either stayed home or split their vote, but the heavily favored Letlow won the nomination over Fleming in late June by a 57-43 margin.

 

That same day, Democrats also held a runoff for their nomination, although whomever emerged would be a major underdog in reliably conservative Louisiana. All prominent Democrats in the state, including recent Governor John Bel Edwards did not appear to even seriously consider a run. A former Edwards aide Nick Albares did run with his ex boss's support but finished third in the primary with 26 percent and eliminated. Two African-American candidates advanced to the runoff in a state party where black voters play a major role and during a year in which many feel they have been disenfranchised over the loss of a Congressional district that was meant to elect a black Representative. In May, Jamie Davis, a farmer who had served on something called the Tensas Parish Police Jury and who was an unsuccessful candidate for a State House seat in 2023 took 47 percent. A data scientist and political consultant named Gary Crockett took 26 percent. The state party apparently was supporting Davis and he took 80 percent in the runoff.

 

This looks like a race that should be Safe Republican. Letlow certainly has a lot of edges, but in a midterm election like this for an open seat, after the incumbent lost a divisive nomination battle, there are a lot of things to consider. Davis appears to be a gregarious candidate and his background as a farmer and a populist pitch could appeal to some who have lately been voting Republican A poll released last month, while from a Democrat firm, showed the Republican only ahead 41-37 with 22 percent undecided. It will be interesting to see if anything comes out to show this race is truly competitive. Right now, it would be a huge shock if Letlow is not able to be promoted to the Senate by a double digit margin.

 

As for the outgoing Senator Cassidy, he has been doing a lot of interviews lately and with his political career behind him has been increasingly critical of Trump and other Administration members. He even got into a shouting match with the President at a closed door Senate conference meeting,. Still though, Cassidy was recently the deciding vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General. Old habits may die hard but regrets can live on. 

 

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

5 D (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

8 R (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

39 D (34 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

39 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)