Illinois U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 79 Days Until Election Day

 

Illinois U.S. Senate

Status: Democrat Open

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Likely Democrat

 

Yesterday, I wrote that the Illinois Gubernatorial race was receiving less attention than any I could remember. The race for U.S. Senate is now, in the post=primary stage, receiving even less. The Senate election held in 2022 also was barely a blip in the Chicago media market, but this is particularly unusual for it being an open seat race. Everyone expects the Democrats will hold on to this seat in what has become one of the most solidly blue states in the country Right now though, there has not been any general election polling. Considering the open nature of the seat and a competitive and contentious primary for Democrats, I cannot quite justify calling this race "Safe" for them, at least not yet. 

 

Dick Durbin has been around Illinois politics since the 1960s and first sought office 50 years ago. In 1982, he was elected to the U.S. House and in 1996 was elevated to the U.S. Senate. In four reelections, he was never truly challenged in a serious way, even as the Downstate politician was not necessarily a beloved figure in the Chicago media market. Now, Durbin is retiring after so many decades on Capitol Hill. One had the sense he would have been included to run for yet another term, even at the age of 81 for many months he kept coy about his intentions. His standing among younger party activists had begun to take a hit. Once with ambitions of becoming Majority Leader, the Illinoisan was held in check by Chuck Schumer, his former Capitol Hill roommate, though he had been his party's Whip for many years now. While Durbin had been reliably liberal his entire Senate tenure, he was viewed as having become too accommodating and not forceful enough. He had endorsed some Democrats for other offices that were not the favorites of the progressive wing and wound up on the losing side. Furthermore, Durbin started to show some modest signs of slowing down with age. The Senator, who was once his junior colleague Barack Obama's biggest political booster, would not endorse a primary candidate to replace him and it seems like if he had done so, that candidate's opponents would have used it against them as a sign of not being sufficiently on the side of change.

 

When Durbin announced his retirement in May of last year, a lot of ambitious Democrats seemed anxious to jump at a chance to win a nomination that would probably be paramount to a general election victory. One candidate who wanted to run and had released questionable polls showing her in a good position was Congresswoman Lauren Underwood. With other African-American women in the race or looking at it though, the young politician decided to stick with her House district. Most of the statewide officials in Illinois decided to run for reelection in 2026, thinking they would have better political options in the future.

 

A total of 10 Democrats would appear on the March ballot, but for the duration of the campaign, the race only really focused on three, all of whom were people of color, looking to join Asian-American Senator Tammy Duckworth from Illinois. Two Members of the U.S. House delegation ran as did the Lt. Goveror, and as it turned out, and as we are seeing especially among Democrats this cycle, is that service in state government seems to be rewarded than being a current Member of Congress, as so many Democrats are down on those their party has sent to Washington.

 

Almost immediately after Durbin's announcement, Lt. Governor Juliana Stratton got into the race. The position of Lt. Governor is not exactly a crucial one in Illinois, but Governor JB Pritzker, who is running for a third term this year, was quick to endorse her for this position. (Stratton is not related to the white Republican who was Governor of Illinois generations ago and had a government building in Springfield named after him.) This Stratton is an African-American female from Chicago's South Side. An attorney, she was recruited to challenge a State Representative in a 2016 primary, after he had run afoul of party bosses, With the backing of then President Obama, plus Michael Madigan, the all powerful Speaker of the Illinois House (who has since been convicted of crimes and is now in federal prison), Stratton won that seat. Less than two years later, Pritzker was looking for a runningmate to join him on a primary ticket. Stratton was a good speaker and offered gender and racial balance and thus, she is currently serving her seventh year as Lt. Governor without making too much news in her own right from that post. She decided she would rather be a U.S. Senator than hope that Pritzker would wind up as President or wait for a chance to run for Governor in her own right.

 

Congresswoman Robin Kelly was a somewhat late entry into the field. Also an African-American who represented parts of the South Side, she had been Chairman of Illinois Democrats for a wile, before Pritzker acted to replace her with someone more to his choosing. While Kelly had a lot of respect among Illinois Democrats, her Senate campaign never really took off, even as she tried to appeal to her party's base by taking some issues to the left of where she might have previously considered comfortable. Ultimately, she finished third with 18 percent.

 

Leading up to the final days of the primary, and perhaps even going into that evening, many expected the nominee to be Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi from the Chicago suburbs. He was the candidate I cast my primary ballot from, even as it continues to feel otherwordly for a one-time staunch Republican like myself to pull a D ballot. Frankly, Raja was the least worst of the options for Senate, so I voted for him and tried to get others to do the same. I was also motivated to vote on some county races, again for least worst options, and where I live, there is no reason to vote for Republicans, both because I despise what has happened to my former party, and because whomever is nominated by them has no chance to win anyway.

 

Krishnamoorthi, who came to America as a child, has such a long name, his political ads always just ask voters to "call me Raja", was a fundraising juggernaut. He raised tons of money for his campaign, much of which from national Indian-American sources, and was omnipresent on the television airwaves (and YouTube ads) for months. In retrospect, maybe too much. Raja (since that is what he wants people to call him) had tasted political defeat before. In 2010, he narrowly lost a primary for State Comptroller and in 2012, he lost a Congressional primary to Duckworth. When she moved on to the Senate in 2016, Raja won the battle to succeed her (Duckworth would endorse Stratton in this primary.) On Capitol Hill, Krishnamoorthi gained a reputation as a smart and serious lawmaker, but also quite politically ambitious and rarely one to turn down opportunities to appear on television. He also started raising money for a future statewide race quite early and some on his political staff said he was overly aggressive and harsh on them to get him dollars as part of that process, which contrasted with the nice guy image he put across publicly.

 

For months, polls showed Krishnamoorthi leading the Senate primary field. After all, his ads were frequent and people remembered his name. While he would certainly never be confused with a Republican, he was definitely the most moderate among the three major candidates and appeared to the one most willing to be able to work with Republicans. He also refused to take some positions that might be used against him in a general election or that he would have to walk away from as a Senator. While Stratton insisted that ICE must be abolished, Raja said that Trump's ICE needed to go, but that it could be reformed. When Stratton came out for a $25 per hour minimum wage, Raja sensibly said that such a thing would not be possible.

 

The Stratton campaign was widely criticized for being fairly invisible for much of the campaign but late in the game, Pritzker's SuperPAC started spending heavily on the airwaves in support of the Lt. Governor he endorsed for the primary, and that seemed to make a huge difference. The ads were very critical of Krishamoorthi as expected, trying to tie him somehow to Donald Trump claiming he had "MAGA donors." At the same time, the Stratton campaign put out a memorable and some though cringe worthy ad in which voters literally said "F Trump"  The tv ads featured bleeps while the internet version did not. Clearly, this was the kind of anti-Trump energy Democrats were looking for. Krishamoorthi responded by going negative on Stratton, trying to tie her to Madigan, and the campaign got ugly. Kelly was targeted in some ads too by Stratton, since she was seen as potentially taking votes away from the Lt. Governor. Eventually, Super PAC ads attacking all three candidates were everywhere. Late in the campaign, Stratton made some headlines when she declared that Jesse Jackson Sr. had decided to endorse her right before he died. His children claimed otherwise, and Stratton seemed to claim she was misinformed. There are a few other examples of the Stratton campaign not looking exactly ready for prime-time, but in a a low-profile Illinois general election, that hardly matters too much.

 

With the exception of one Buddhist Senator from Hawai'i, no person identifying with a religion other than Christian or Jewish  has been elected in America as Governor or Senate. There are some high-profile people looking to break through this year in other states, but Raja Krishnamoorthi would not find himself as America's first Hindu Senator. Stratton beat him in the primary 40-33. Even those like myself who thought she might have a chance to win, was surprised that it by more than a couple points. It is hard to argue that she would not be in this position without the organizational support and especially the money of the billionaire Pritzker. He chose her from the political backbenches to run on his ticket and then pushed her for Senate and spent heavily to help her come from behind and win a nomination. The Governor will hope especially that African-American female primary voters realize this when they are looking for a 2028 Presidential candidate to back.

 

Of course, there is also a Republican in this open seat race, although he might not have the money to run ads in Chicago. A six-way primary was won by Don Tracy with 40 percent of the vote. He probably had the most name recognition, but that is not saying much. Attorney Jeanine Evans finished second with 23 percent. Much earlier, more well known Republicans, such as Congressman Darin LaHood decided not to run for Senate or Governor, considering the political reality of Illinois.

Tracy is a lawyer and businessman from Downstate in his mid 70s and has been active in Illinois politics for a long time. He was considered a Democrat for many of those years and once ran unsuccessfully for the State Senate under that label. His sister in law, Jil Tracy, now a State Senator,  then a State Representative was the Lt. Governor candidate on an establishment supported 2014 primary ticket that lost narrowly, but would have won a general election that year. Four years before that, Don Tracy, finished a distant third in a Republican primary for Lt. Governor, the last cycle to feature a separate primary for that office. Tracy was appointed to a state government post under Republican Governor Bruce Rauner and then after the 2020 election became Chairman of the Illinois Republican Party. That is a pretty thankless task these days though and Tracy resigned before the 2024 general election. While the Illinois Republican establishment is nowhere what it used to be, those that remain did back Tracy in the Senate primary and that seemed to make the difference. If it were a more high-profile contest, someone would have run ads against him calling him a "RINO" and that could have caused him a lot of political difficulty.

 

The Republican nominee is not exactly smooth on the stump but is trying to position himself as a mainstream alternative to the very liberal Stratton. That will hold sway with some but probably not nearly enough in Illinois. Tracy is not claiming to be hardcore MAGA or anything like that, but he has supported Trump in the past, and thus will not get my vote. Since Stratton will win without my vote, I will not vote for her either. She is well too far to the left for my liking and I do not like some of her tactics in the primary or things she said about Israel during that race. I will have to consider write-in options. Nonetheless, unless there is a monumental development, Stratton will go on to become the second African-American woman elected to the Senate from Illinois.

 

More than likely, she will hold that job for more than a single term. Stratton will be a reliable vote for her party but the protege of JB Pritzker (whom she will clearly endorse for President) can hardly be expected to be any sort of political or legislative force on Capitol Hill, and those in the party who came to find Durbin underwhelming will probably say the same about her before too long. At least Raja Krishnamoorthi, whose career in elected office might now be over, would have been a reliable messenger for his party on the Sunday morning shows.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

5 D (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 4 R (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans)

Senate total predicted thus far:

39 D (34 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup) 35 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans)