Final Predictions Recap

1 Day Until Election Day

Every cycle I feel this way, but I really do think I will get more individual predictions wrong this time than usual. However, every time I look at my totals, I do really well.

 

It has been two weeks since I started looking at all the House seats and I am sure I could find several that could be changed one way or another in terms of the party winner or a classification such as Safe, Likely, Leans, or Tossup. I just do not really have the time to do all that now. I just know there are some districts in Alabama, Florida, Maine, and Montana in particular that I may be wrong on. I will stick with what I had though. These are my gut instincts and while I looked at the online betting markets for some races, it would be lazy merely to go with the favorites in every race just off of that.

 

The people will have their say tomorrow. Republicans, by virtue of their support for Donald Trump, deserve to lose soundly. If nothing else, gains by Democrats at the federal, state, and local levels will put guardrails on Trump. He is probably going to act even crazier though and the things he says late Tuesday and into Wednesday are just going to be insane. We should be prepared for just about anything, but our democratic institutions should hold and even Republican politicians are going to be forced to reckon with what the electorate voiced and will perhaps be more reluctant to roll over to Trump.

 

Democrats are going to have a good night, and they would be making a mistake to think that 2028 will be anywhere near as easy. There are a whole lot of Democrats, especially in the House, at at least one Senate candidate, who are either going to win or will probably win, that are going to be bad news for the country and their party. I have never claimed to be a Democrat, but as someone who wants to see Trumpism and his form of politics thrown in the ash-heap of history, I hope they do not continue to call into the same traps that the one Grand Old Party has. This will be a conversation about 2028 though and I will plan to add my thoughts on that weekly starting in January. 

 

Before that though, I will eventually post about the results of tomorrow's election once all the results are known, and tally up how I did. This will probably be in December.

 

Governors:

 

28 D (6 holdover, 5 Safe,  6 Likely, 9 Leans, 2 Tossup)

22 R (8 holdover, 1 Safe,  4 Likely, 7 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Democrat net gain of 4

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U.S. Senate

 

52 D (34 holdover, 8 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 5 Tossup) 

48 R (31 holdover, 5 Safe, 4 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Democrat net gain of 5

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U.S. House

 

 

240 D (141 Safe, 56 Likely, 28 Leans, 15 Tossup)

195 R ( 71  Safe, 80 Likely, 35 Leans,  9  Tossup)

 

DEMOCRAT NET GAIN OF 25 SEATS 

 

Past U.S. House prediction results:

 

2006: 416-19 (96%)
2008: 418-17 (96%)
2010: 414-21 (95%)
2012: 415-20 (95%)
2014: 426-9 (98%)

2016: 429-6 (99%)

2018: 419-15 (97%)

2020: 415-20 (95%)

2022: 420-15 (97%) 

2024: 422-13 (97%)

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Cumulative Result History:

 

2006: 482-22 (96%)
2008: 462-19 (96%)
2010: 482-27 (95%)
2012: 452-27 (94%)
2014: 494-13 (97%)
2016: 469-12 (98%) 

2018: 487-18 (96%)  

2020: 459-22 (95%) 

2022: 487-19 (96%)

2024: 465-15 (97%)