New Mexico U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 51 Days Until Election Day

New Mexico U.S. Senate

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

 

Outlook: Safe Democrat

 

Democrat Ben Ray Lujan faced a somewhat competitive contest in 2020 as he moved from the House to the Senate, but should have a far easier time six years later in winning a second term.

 

A distant relative of the outgoing Governor of New Mexico, also a former U.S. House colleague, Senator Lujan has been around politics all of his life, as his late father was one of the most influential political figures in the state. He served six terms in the House and appeared to be on the Leadership track before he won an open U.S. Senate seat, becoming one of the few Latinos in the upper chamber. In 2022, when he was still just 49, Lujan suffered a stroke. After several weeks of treatment, he seemed to make a full recovery.

 

On June 2, Lujan took 84 percent among Democrat in a primary. For a time, it looked like he would not even face a general election opponent, as Republicans had a hard time finding a candidate willing to run besides one who had been disqualified for ballot requirements. It appears unclear to me if Independent or third party candidates have qualified for the November ballot, but Republicans were able to nominate one via write-in.

 

A businessman and past unsuccessful candidate for lower offices with the appropriate name of Larry Marker received a required number of write-in votes in the Republican Primary (whether cast by marker or not) to make the ballot against the incumbent. That is not an insignificant achievement for Marker, but this year, in a state that has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002 and at a hefty financial disadvantage, there may not be much more to accomplish. Perhaps, now that he is actually on the ballot, he can change his name to Larry Vote Puncher. 

 

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

10 D (5 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

13 R (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

44 D (34 holdover, 5 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

44 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)