Idaho Governor- Race of the Day

 82 Days Until Election Day

Idaho Governor

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

 

Outlook: Safe Republican

 

For now, I am forecasting that incumbent Republican Governor Brad Little is "safe" in his run for a third term as Governor. However, he may not get 60 percent of the vote. There are a variety of third party and independent candidates who might receive a protest vote and hurt his margins. However, somebody running with a D next to their name in Idaho just does not too much of an opportunity to get close, even if it is a very bad year for Republicans.

 

A rancher, Little has held elective office since 2001 when he joined the State Senate. In 2009, he was appointed Lt. Governor, won two elections of his own to that office, and then in 2018 won a very competitive Republican primary for Governor in the very red state. The general election was largely a breeze, but many in the state probably preferred someone further to the right or more populist than Little. In his first term, he clashed with the more right-wing Lt. Governor, a position that is separately elected, but defeated her in the 2022 Republican primary 53-32. In the general election, the incumbent well outpaced his Democrat opponent 61-20, but a right-wing Independent took 17 percent.

In Idaho, Governors are not term limited and Little is running again, which probably brought about a sense of frustration among ambitious Republicans and disapproval of others in the state. The pattern remains clear though. Little was going to get a large chunk of the primary vote against him, but opponents were not prominent enough or well organized enough to defeat him in May. This time, Little took 59 percent against seven opponents. A former police officer and saloon owner was second with 29 percent. In 2022, Donald Trump had endorsed the incumbent's opponent, the sitting Lt. Governor, and it did not make a huge difference. This time around, Trump, now President again, sided with the incumbent, and that ended any real possibility of anybody mounting a primary challenge to Little.

 

Democrats held a four way all-female primary and nominated attorney Terri Pickens who easily won with 61 percent of the vote. In 2022, Pickens, who in that campaign also included her married name, was nominated for Lt. Governor and took 30 percent of the vote. In this current campaign, she will probably finish somewhat below that same level of support for a specific reason.

 

By any measure, Brad Little is conservative, but is considered too low-key or "establishment" to be a MAGA favorite. Idaho also has a contingent of right-leaning libertarian types. Many of these folks will look for someone else on the November ballot to vote for. One wildcard this year is that John Stegner, a former Republican and longtime former judge who served on the Idaho Supreme Court is running as an Independent. I do not claim to know all the dynamics of that candidacy but it appears that he might wind up with the most support among moderates in the state. At the same time, Idaho has a U.S. Senate contest in which is a former Democrat elected official is running as an Independent and where the official nominee of the Democrats recently dropped out giving a better shot at potentially unseating an incumbent. If that were at play here and Pickens were not still running as a Democrat, this may look like a somewhat different race.  The Stegner campaign is claiming that they would be winning a one-on one race with Governor Little. Well, perhaps, even with all the Democrats agreeing to support him, they would still need the Libertarian and the perennial Conservative candidate who is legally named "Pro-Life" to also be on the ballot.

 

I will be surprised if Stegner finishes anywhere other than third place, but his presence will take votes away from both major party nominees. In Idaho though, that just means that a Republican still has a large edge. I will keep an eye out for any full candidate polling which may lead me to change this away from "Safe" for Little.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

6 D, (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 5 R (2 Safe, I Likely, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

12 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 13 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Tossup)