Wyoming U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

18 Days Until Election Day

 

Wyoming U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (West) 

 

Outlook: Safe Republican

 

It is still fairly rare for any open Senate seat to be considered totally "safe" but that is something that is likely to increase in these very polarized times. Even in a year where Democrats are expecting to make massive gains, Wyoming is just too Republican for there to be any realistic competition an actual Democrat can put up in a federal race.

 

After just one term in the U.S. Senate, Republican Cynthia Lummis is retiring at age 72. Previously, she had represented the state in the U.S. House for eight years but then took some time away from politics, not long after a personal loss. She has been somewhat of the more libertarian leaning Republicans in Wyoming, but has hardly been too vocal of a Donald Trump critic.

 

This vacancy left an opportunity for many in the Republican Party, as the August primary would be tantamount to election. Outgoing Governor Mark Gordon did not choose to run and neither did anybody else who was well-known in the party after it was clear that Congresswoman Harriet Hageman was the choice of Donald Trump. She had been looking at a run for the open Governorship but with the somewhat surprising announcement by Lummis,the opportunity to stay in Washington D.C. proved to be greater. Other Republicans would jump into the statewide House primary to replace Hageman.

 

A politically connected attorney, Hageman was once a Donald Trump critic. She was in fact good friends with and a top campaign official for Congresswoman Liz Cheney. In 2018, Hageman ran for Governor with Cheney's support and finished third in a crowded primary with 21 percent of the vote. Cheney had been a top member of the Republican Leadership on Capitol Hill (as her father Dick Cheney once had been) and while she often clashed with MAGA folks on national security and foreign policy related matters, was a pretty reliable vote for Donald Trump. That changed after the 2020 election and the events of January 6, 2021. Cheney joined a select group of other Republicans in voting to impeach Trump and became a vocal critic of him. Eventually, the Congresswoman was stripped of her title as Republican Conference Chairman and she went on to serve on the Select Congressional Committee which investigated January 6. Trump swore revenge against Cheney and in 2022 the former President recruited Hageman to run in a primary against her former friend and ally. Hageman pledged full loyalty to Trump and throughout the campaign, it was clear that Cheney was in deep political trouble. Many others in her position would have just not even run for reelection, but Cheney stuck it out until the end and lost renomination in a landslide. While Liz Cheney remained proud of standing by her principles in support of democracy, Hageman was off to Congress. In 2024, Cheney, (to the ridiculous consternation of some on the left) became a top Republican supporter and surrogate for the Presidential candidacy of Kamala Harris against Trump. Cheney said that if Trump won, she would realize there was no longer a place for her in the party. That is what happened, although ironically enough, Trump went to war against Iran this year, saying it was something that should have been done years ago, even though in the last campaign, he campaigned against such a concept and claimed that "warmonger" Liz Cheney would try to get Harris to attack Iran.

 

Against four opponents this year, Hageman took 65 percent in the Senate primary. In second place was Sam Mead, a former local Mayor whose uncle had been Governor not long ago, continuing a long family history of politics in the state. That the 36 year old tech worker and rancher managed 28 percent, showed that at least some Republicans still aligned more with the Cheney wing of the party than that of Trump and Hageman. Nonetheless, in this race, Mead was the one who seemed to be opposed to military action against Iran.

 

Democrats nominated James Byrd, an African-American geophysicist who had served 10 years in the State House up until 2019. He took 79 percent against landscaper Billy Benavidez. The cowboy hat wearing Byrd is definitely running a more active campaign than the party's nominee for Governor, but this race for any Democrats is momentously uphill. While it is likely that nothing could have prevented the ascension of Hageman from the House to Senate, perhaps Wyoming Democrats would have had a better chance of making some noise by taking a page from their brethren in some other red states. Maybe they should have not fielded a candidate at all and tried to get behind Liz Cheney to run as an Independent.

 

 

Senate races predicted:

16 D (7 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

19 R (6 Safe, 4 Likely, 6 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted:

50 D (34 holdover, 7 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup) 

50 R (31 holdover, 6 Safe, 4 Likely, 6 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Democrat net gain of 3

 

However, the tie-breaking vote of JD Vance would allow Republicans to keep control. Democrats falling one seat short would feel like a huge let-down (looking at you Michigan!)

 

Nonetheless, in a couple of days, I will re-classify and re-predict all of the Senate races again, so we will see what happens..