Connecticut Governor- Race of the Day

 90 Days Until Election Day

 

Connecticut Governor

 

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Likely Democrat

 

In federal elections, Connecticut has been reliably Democrat seemingly for generations now, but Republicans have held out hope about winning the Governorship through several cycles. Indeed, starting in 1994, Republicans had won four in a row. Now, Democrats are looking to surpass that streak with five. The 2010 election narrowly decided though. So, were the next three, including the 2018 win of Ned Lamont by a margin of 49-46 in what should have been a strong year for Democrats. By this point, many in the Nutmeg State had grown weary of high taxes under Democrats.The state reverted more to national form in 2022 though with Lamont winning reelection by 13 points.

 

Now, after having caused months of speculation as to his intentions, Governor Lamont is seeking a third term in Hartford. In the short-term, his biggest issue may be the primary that is being held next Tuesday. A very wealthy former telecommunications executive, Lamont first achieved political fame via a primary challenge of his own. In 2006, backed by his party's left, he challenged incumbent Senator Joe Lieberman, who not long ago had been his party's Vice Presidential nominee. That campaign focused mostly on the Iraq War and Lieberman's perceived closeness with the Bush Administration. Lamont would go on to win that primary and looked like he was about to become a Senator. However, state law allowed Lieberman to run as an Independent in the general election and the more centrist Senator saved his job that way.

 

In 2010, Lamont lost a Gubernatorial primary to a more working class candidate who would go on to serve two terms as Governor, but he tried again in 2018 and won the first of terms. Now, as Lamont is seeking a third term, he is being challenged to his left.by State Representative Josh Elliott. In a May state party convention, the Governor's political clout allowed him to easily win the party endorsement, but support for Elliott was strong enough to get him on the primary ballot. In this day and age, a lot of voters, in both parties, may not like the idea of someone running for a third-term as Governor. It is very rare for a sitting Connecticut Governor to face a primary challenge, but few expect Elliott to be an actual threat to win the nomination. If it were to happen on Tuesday, there would be even more stories about the success of insurgent progressives, which Lamont used to be considered, against the party establishment, which he is now part of.

 

Republicans are not facing a primary on Tuesday, having already settled their intra-party business. Erin Stewart, the former Mayor of New Britain and considered a rising political star, dropped out of the race just before the state convention over allegations she had used a city credit card for her own personal use. By this time, another female Republican candidate, seen with crossover support potential, had already dropped out to run instead for Comptroller. Staying in the race and losing at the convention though was longtime activist Betsy McCaughey. She had a pretty interesting political history. In 1994 she was part of a huge upset when she was elected Lt. Governor of New York, along with George Pataki. Two had a major falling out though in office (which seems to happen all the time in New York between a male and a female holding those offices) and tried to run against Pataki as a Democrat in 1998, but was seen as a gadfly and lost the primary. Eventually McCaughey (who was married for a time to future Trump Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, himself a former Democrat) found her way to MAGA and neighboring Connecticut. 

 

The convention opted, probably wisely, to choose State Senator Ryan Fazio, whom if elected would become the nation's first Governor to have been born in 1990. That day is probably coming before too long, but it would a major upset if it happens this year in Connecticut. Fazio is a financial advisor, who holds some moderate positions on social issues, but his Republican label likely has him way behind the eight ball in Connecticut, especially this year.

 

This Tuesday will also formally select the candidates for Lt. Governor who will then join a ticket. Those are not contested. Lamont is running for the third time with sitting Lt. Governor Susan Bysiewicz who is having to wait, at least a while longer, for a chance to become Governor in her own right. She had been talked about for 20 years seemingly as a future contender for that job or the U.S. Senate but might have missed her best chances. The presumptive Republican nominee brings very little to the table for Fazio. The State Representative, who was competing as the running-mate of Erin Stewart, who had just dropped out, did not do well at the convention, and he did not attempt to go further. That left the nomination to Matt Corey, a bar owner and Navy veteran who has unsuccessfully sought office in Connecticut several times in recent cycles.

 

On August 11, Governor Lamont will probably finish around the high 50s against his primary opponent Elliott. His margin in November against the Republican Fazio should be similar.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

5 D, (1 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 2 R (1 Safe, I Likely)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

11 D (6 holdover, 1 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 10 R (8 holdover, 1 Safe, 1 Likely)