Mississippi U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

61 Days Until Election Day

Mississippi U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Likely Republican

 

Some Democrat partisans insist they have a real shot of flipping the Magnolia State this year. If that happens, it would likely signify one of the biggest wave elections in American history. I think Democrats are probably going to win a lot of big races in a couple of months, but considering the Republican nature of Mississippi, this would be one huge task.

 

Incumbent Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith seems to make among least of headlines among current Senators. The first woman to represent her state in Congress, she was a Democrat as recently as 2010. Then, while serving as a State Senator she switched parties to join what had become the dominant one in the state. After several years as the elected Agriculture Commissioner, she was appointed in 2018 to fill a U.S. Senate vacancy even though the Trump White House wanted someone else to be selected by the Governor. Hyde-Smith struggled to put away a special election and made some notable gaffes on the trail. She won a 2020 rematch by 10 points, still a fairly underwhelming showing for a Republican in a federal race in recent decades. Hyde-Smith took 81 percent in a Republican primary in March that did not receive much notice at all nationally. The vote against her seems to be a sign that she may still not have an overwhelmingly strong political profile at home.

 

Democrats are right to recognize that they have a very credible nominee to oppose the incumbent. Like many southern states, white voters have become increasingly rare in Democrat primaries and those contests are dominated by African-American candidates. Scott Colom who has served as a District Attorney in the state since 2016 took 73 percent against two opponent. The female second place finisher was a cousin of the historic Missisippi lynching victim Emmett Till and the third place finisher was a white man. One somewhat weird twist to this race was that attorney Ty Pinkins, who was upset with efforts of party leaders to try to recruit Colom into the race, ended his primary campaign and announced a bid as an Independent. The African-American Pinkins had represented Democrats in the 2023 Secretary of State race and then the next year as the U. S. Senate nominee. He took 37 percent that year against Mississippi's other Republican Senator. By splitting the general election vote, after even refusing to try to compete in a primary, Pinkins is acting in a way that would seem to benefit the Republicans.

Unlike some other states, Mississippi did not act to redraw their Congressional maps this cycle, but the belief is that they very well might for 2028 in an effort to see the state's one Democrat and one African-American U.S. House member have their district fall to Republicans. These sort of efforts could energize black voters in the state to turn out and vote against Donald Trump's party. That is probably the standard though all across the country this year among Democrats to begin with.

 

In 2022, Colom, who had been a state judge, was nominated by Joe Biden to the federal bench but that nomination was effectively blocked in the Senate by Hyde-Smith. Now, the two are electoral opponents. Right now, the polls show the Republican ahead but by a single digit margin. Those polls show that the difference is basically the same if it were a two person race or a three person one featuring Pinkins as an Independent. Whatever happens, Colom will probably do his future political or potential judicial career well by a strong showing.  It is worth keeping an eye on what transpires here but nobody should be of the mindset that this is a top-tier opportunity for Democrats. If Republicans lose here, that means they are suffering massive losses everywhere in America.

 

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

 7 D (3 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

11 R (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 2 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

41 D (34 holdover, 3 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

42 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 2 Leans, 3 Tossup)