Oregon Governor- Race of the Day

41 Days Until Election Day

 Oregon Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

A Republican has not won the Governorship of Oregon since one was reelected way back in 1982. The party out of power has since often thought they had a very good chance of winning and almost always, this race results in a single digit victory for Democrats, as urban voters in the Portland area surpass the heavily Republican vote that comes from the eastern part of the state.

Four years ago, three women competed and it looked like it might be a very interesting result for the open office. The candidacy of a moderate Independent, who had long been a Democrat fell off towards the end though as she received just nine percent. The victor, former State House Speaker Tina Kotek took 47 percent while Republican Christine Drazan, the former State House Minority Leader took 44 percent. With her 2022 victory, Kotek became one of the first two openly gay women to be elected Governor.

Four years later, both women, who were born with the name Christine, and who did battle in the legislature before their last campaign for Governor and facing off again. This time there is no major independent candidate, although a third party candidate of the Pacific Green Party could theoretically hurt the incumbent. Oregon is looked at as a pretty blue state as Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump by 14 points, but some recent polling is pointing at a very close result in this Gubernatorial re-match. Should Republicans be excited about the possibility of a Pacific Northwest pickup? They should probably try to curb their enthusiasm.

Clearly, a lot of Oregon voters have some problems with the generations of Democrat control in Salem. There is dissatisfaction involving the economy, crime, and qualify of life issues, such as some pretty bad outcomes when Oregon decriminalized most drugs in 2021 before repealing that law in 2024. Voters are also said to be worried about data centers and in this race, the Republican challenger has taken an even more restrictive position than the incumbent. This is in contrast to the recent laissez-faire attitude expressed by Donald Trump in the White House. It will be a challenge for Drazan to try to keep voters from placing their dissatisfaction on the status quo on Trump and a Republican Congress instead of Kotek and the Democrats running Oregon.

All sorts of candidates qualify for Oregon primaries and in May, Kotek took 84 percent against several opponents. Some voices and groups on the left though held off on endorsing the Governor who herself came from the progressive wing of the party.  Four years ago, Drazan, who was considered one of the more mainstream options, survived a jam packed Republican primary to win with just 23 percent. In this cycle, the Republican field was reduced to 14 candidates and Drazan won with 41 percent. Since her last race, she happened to be elected once again to the State House and seemed set to return as Minority Leader, but then accepted an appointment to the State Senate. Finishing behind Drazan with 33 percent was State Representative Ed Diehl. Trailing in third place with 17 percent was financial executive Chris Dudley, a former Portland Trailblazers player.  In the strongly Republican year of 2010, Dudley, who had once set an NBA record for missed consecutive free throws,  had been the GOP nominee for Governor and came within about a point of victory, after leading in many polls that cycle. By 2026 though, Oregon Republicans had apparently moved on from Dudley.

The conventional wisdom was that Drazan was the strongest possible Republican opponent for Kotek. The polls are clearly somewhat surprising to many, even though there has not been many of them. One Republican firm put Drazan ahead by four points among registered voters in June and survey from earlier this month, conducted on behalf of a pro-business group shows the Republican with a 45-43 lead while 13 percent said they were undecided.

Kotek is not in great political shape and voters seem to wish someone else were Governor. Nonetheless, she is going to try to talk about Donald Trump as much as possible, and within good reason. This will likely keep Drazan somewhat on the defensive, as is the case with many other Republican candidates around the country who want to appeal to voters in the middle, while not stopping the MAGA base from sitting out the vote. My hunch is that a lot of the undecided vote in the latest poll are liberals who even if they have to figuratively hold their nose, will wind up voting to reelect a Democrat.

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

17 D (2 Safe, 7 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

10 R (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

23 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 7 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

18 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)