Delaware U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 89 Days Until Election Day

Delaware U.S. Senate

 

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Safe Democrat

 

The First State always holds one of the nation's latest primaries and that will be the case again, as nominees will be chosen on September 15. In the race for U.S .Senate there are four Democrats on the ballot and two Republicans. It is beyond obvious that incumbent Senator Chris Coons will wind up representing the Democrats in November and Republican Mike Katz, will probably be the Republican nominee, although perhaps I could be misjudging that. Regardless, Coons will easily win a third full term.

 

Basically, the most interesting aspect of this low-profile race are all the party switches involves. Coons himself, who grew up in a wealthy and prominent family, grew up as a Republican and considered himself one. He eventually became a Democrat, and even jokingly referred to his transition in his college years to a "bearded Marxist", which many of the kids in the party can certainly relate to today. The county executive of Delaware's largest county, received a huge break in 2010, when running in a special election that was being held to fill the seat which had been held by then Vice President Joe Biden. A moderate Republican, who had been a political fixture in the state was expected to be his opponent and favored for the general election, but Mike Castle lost to Tea Party backed Christine O'Donnell, in a year where the Tea Party held a lot of power. After this primary upset, Coons found himself in a very strong position against a candidate who swore was "not a witch." There are perhaps parallels that can be made today to some Democrats that are winning primaries in what should be a huge year for their party, but who might prove to be unpalatable or seen as extreme in a general election.

 

Coons has since won reelection in 2014 and 2020 and is considered to be respected on both sides of the aisle. He was very close to his fellow Delawarean Joe Biden and was frequently on television defending him. Of course, this became extremely awkward for Coons, like many other Democrats, after Biden's disastrous 2024 debate which eventually drove him from the race. Many Delaware Senators have had very long stints on Capitol Hill though and Coons seems to be planning on the same.

 

Three candidates are running to oppose Coons in the primary, but are not much of a threat. One of them though is the man who was the 2024 Republican nominee for U.S .Senate. Corporate executive Eric Hansen took almost 40 percent two years ago in an open seat race, which was pretty much what he would have been expected to receive. Hansen was seen as a somewhat moderate Republican but since losing that race, he has apparently gone full anti-MAGA. He is now running for Senate as a Democrat, and appearing on the ballot as "E No-Trump" Hansen. That is really taking things to a different level. Had he run again as a Republican, he might have been in position to be nominated again. I do not fully understand why he is running against Coons instead of endorsing him if he has switched to being a Democrat, but maybe Hansen just really likes to run for office.

 

On the Republican side, Army Reserve Colonel John Shulli is running and seems to be embracing a fairly strong pro-Trump platform. The nomination will probably go to the candidate who is running with the official part endorsement in the state, and like Hansen (and for that matter Coons), is someone who has changed parties.  Mike Katz, a physician, served four years in the Delaware Senate as a Democrat. In 2012, he lost reelection to a Republican, a year after suffering serious injuries in a ski lift accident. In 2020, Katz announced a quixotic bid for President as a Democrat but did not receive much in the way of coverage. By 2024, he was an Independent and running for the open Senate seat. He took four percent in November.

Now, Katz is a Republican and received the endorsement of the party at an April gathering. The Republican bench in Delaware is not exactly deep these days. Throughout his political career, Katz has fashioned himself as a sort of "common-sense" centrist, but it is hard to really pin down what makes him any different as a Republican now as he was as a Democrat, besides just going along with the prevailing attitudes within the party.

 

Even with Joe Biden officially retired from politics, tiny Delaware is one of America's bluest states, and the wonkish Coons will not have any trouble this year winning another term.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

3 D (2 Safe, 1 Tossup), 2 R (2 Safe)

Senate total predicted thus far:

37 D (34 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Tossup) 33 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe)