Nebraska U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

58 Days Until Election Day

Nebraska U.S. Senate

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican 

 

I am hoping that Pete Ricketts, the junior Republican Senator from Nebraska has a happy and successful October. As for November? He is on his own there. You see, Ricketts is part of the family that owns the Chicago Cubs, whom I am of course a bigger fan of than any politician running for office this year. The Senator's brother Tom, who primarily handles the ownership duties is not politically vocal, while a sister Laura, is a prominent gay activist and big-time Democrat fundraiser. Their father started the TD Ameritrade business in Omaha, which made them all very rich. The Ricketts parents were once vocally opposed to Donald Trump from within the Republican Party, but those days are long gone.

 

Pete Ricketts eventually went to work for his father's business. In 2006, back when Democrats still regularly won statewide elections in Nebraska, he ran for the U.S. Senate and captured the GOP nomination over more politically experienced opponents. Ricketts was then wiped out 64-36 against a conservative leaning Democrat incumbent, who had also once been Governor. After returning to the private sector, he then ran for Governor in 2014 and benefited from his family's money during the course of that campaign. Ricketts won a seriously contested Republican primary with just 27 percent of the vote, but the general election was far easier as Nebraska had become a good deal redder politically. A second term win was also relatively easy, even as the Governor often clashed with members of his party in the unicameral State Senate. Ineligible to seek a third term, Ricketts began to once again aspire to join the U.S. Senate, which happens to be something that several previous Nebraska Governors later did. When sitting Republican Senator Ben Sasse resigned two years early to take an academic position, Ricketts was thought of as the likely choice if a Republican won the Governorship in 2022. That is indeed what happened. Sasse, who at times was a frequent critic of Trump, later ran into some issues in his Florida University post and resigned. Since late 2025, Sasse has courageously been battling advanced pancreatic cancer. The 54 year has already outlived the diagnosis he was given by a few months.  

 

Once Ricketts was appointed to fill the Senate vacancy by his Gubernatorial successor, he cruised to victory in both the 2024 primary and general election, even as MAGA types have remained suspicious of him and his establishment background. He has been a reliable supporter of Trump though both as Governor and as a Senator. Ricketts' wife however has remained a registered Democrat and has sometimes endorsed them in recent years. The Senator took 82 percent in this May's Republican primary.

 

As I discussed yesterday in regards to the surprisingly competitive Gubernatorial election, there seems to be a lot of people in Nebraska who have soured on Republicans, but might be less likely to want to vote for a Democrat. There is an Independent candidate running for Governor there and in other red states this general election, Independents are being supported by Democrats for strategic purposes. That is also once again the case in Nebraska.

 

Dan Osborn (who is not related to but perhaps owes some political name recognition to Tom Osborne, the Cornhuskers legendary football coach turned Republican Congressman), is a Navy veteran and industrial mechanic who went on to become a union President and led a 2021 strike at a cereal plant. The blue collar Osborn definitely does not come across as a typical politician, with his tattoos and not usually wearing suits. In 2024, the same year the appointed Ricketts was winning a special Senate election, Osborn ran against the state's other Republican incumbent in a much more watched race.

 

Running as an Independent in lieu of the Democrats fielding a candidate, which some in the party were uneasy with, Osborn looked competitive in the polls with Senator Deb Fischer. Many wondered if a huge upset was possible and talked about how Fischer had not really attended to political needs at home. The overall Republican lean of Nebraska was enough though for Fischer to defeat Osborn 53-47. I would surmise that had Osborn been on the ballot in 2024 with a D next to his name, he would have lost by at least a couple more points.

 

This cycle, after apparently considering bids for Governor or a U.S. House seat, Osborn decided to run as an Independent once again for Senate. The overall political environment for Republicans seemed likely to be in a worse position than it had been when Trump was on the ballot in 2024. Once again, Democrats decided their best path was to support Osborn, who seemed to align with them on most issues. There would be some significant complications though as a primary for Democrats emerged, against the wishes of party leaders, who preferred the party formally sit out this election. There would be all sorts of court challenges involved. The first candidate to get into the Democrat primary was pastor William Forbes, who while he sort of denied being a Republican, had a history of activism for Pro-Life causes and was a Trump supporter. He seemed to be running just to capture the ballot spot for Democrats and cause some in that party to vote for the party label itself. 

 

Democrats called for Forbes to drop out saying he was trying to "trick"voters. He would not do so and this led the party to back the primary candidacy of retired pharmacy technician Cindy Burbank, a legitimate Democrat, if not a legitimate candidate for Senate. It was clear that if Burbank won the nomination, she would drop out and support Osborn against Ricketts. The Nebraska Republican Party complained that she was not a real candidate and the Republican Secretary of State agreed and had her removed from the ballot. Burbank claimed she was serious about running for Senate and would only withdraw from the general election is there was not a "path to victory." In March, the State Supreme Court overruled the Secretary of State and she was placed back on the ballot. In May, Burbank easily defeated Forbes by 79 points. The nominee then promptly endorsed Osborn. In July, it was settled that her name would be removed from the November ballot. Furthermore, the Legal Marijuana NOW nominee, also a former labor union official exited the race and endorsed Osborn. I think that story was what confused with what I wrote yesterday about the party's candidate and the Gubernatorial race. I am sorry I got that part of the narrative wrong, but I cannot get everything right all the time! The bottom line is that all of this maneuvering has worked to the advantage of the Independent Osborn and against the Republican candidate.

 

Can Osborn improve on his competitive showing from two years ago? While I think it is definitely possible, and that in a large wave election he could even win, I have some increased doubts about him as a candidate. He is more known than he was two years ago and there is a risk that a maverick outsider only has the same kind of "magic" for a limited time. Republicans have since 2024 done all they can to paint Osborn as a leftist who was once an ally of Bernie Sanders. Osborn has continued to insist that he is an Independent who represents those fed up with both major parties. Much of his rhetoric though has tacked left as of late. For instance, he has stated that he opposes offensive military aid to Israel, although he continues to support defensive weapons (which differentiates him at least from the Democrat Senate nominee in Michigan.) At the same time, Osborn is trying to appeal to the kind of populist voters who have gravitated towards Trump over the past decade. During the course of this campaign, some old audio recordings from the 2021 strike came out in which Osborn complains about undocumented workers being hired to replace the striking union members and said ICE was called to deal with him This puts a candidate being backed by Democrats, for which abolishing or severely curtailing ICE is a mandatory political position in a very awkward spot. Osborn has stated he did not personally call ICE but merely sough guidance from local law enforcement. It seems like has is trying to have it both ways. Taking a more solid position against illegal immigrants and in favor of working-class Americans might win him more crossover support, but that would run the risk of alienating the Democrats he has backing him for the second straight cycle. There are also questions about how his associates may have used some underhanded tactics in trying to infiltrate the Marijuana Party and get them to dissolve for his own political benefit.

 

Right now, there is not a lot of recent non-partisan polling on this race. A few Democrat sponsored surveys show a dead heat between the incumbent Ricketts and Osborn. Back in May, one even had the challenger ahead by five points. I am mindful that the Republican somewhat outran the polls against Osborn in 2024. It could be that this is a very different year and that will not happen again, but sometimes voters prefer a known quality, which is what Ricketts is, even if not completely beloved, over someone more "risky." Right now, considering the statewide nature of Nebraska, I will give the incumbent at least a slight edge.

 

In the meantime, Go Cubs Go!

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

 7 D (3 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

13 R (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

41 D (34 holdover, 3 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

44 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)