Virginia U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

23 Days Until Election Day

Virginia U.S. Senate

 

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (South)

 

Outlook: Likely Democrat

 

One year ago, political junkies were focused on Virginia, as it held statewide elections. While many insisted that Republicans had a chance to hold on to at least a couple of the three constitutional offices they held, Democrats stripped away all of them. The Gubernatorial race wound up being a 16 point victory and a flawed nominee for Attorney General unseated a Republican incumbent. This sort of result was seen as perhaps foreshadowing what could be a very bad midterm for Donald Trump's party in 2026 and that has definitely seen to come even more in focus, even as there was much rancor regarding plans, sometimes overblown or overstated, that legislative Democrats were said to be trying to push through in the Old Dominion.

 

Virginia is a southern state and not long ago regularly yielded very good results for the GOP. As the state became more urbanized and more educated though, it moved to purple, much as it did when it moved away generations earlier from solid Democrat control. That trend has continued, even as Republicans did manage to have a strong 2021 in the state. Kamala Harris took 52 percent of the vote in 2024, indicating that even in a bad year for Democrats, Virginia would continue to be considered a fairly blue state. After all the supposed drama and competitiveness last year, it does not appear the Senate race is remotely in danger for the incumbent this year, as he holds a massive financial advantage and the race is not getting much attention. I could probably call this as "Safe Democrat" but there does not seem to be any polling and it is hard to say off the bat that any Democrat is totally safe in a southern state.

 

Mark Warner first sought office in 1996, when the wealthy entrepreneur launched a surprinsingly strong challenge to Republican Senator John Warner, to whom he was not related. (Before he passed away a few years, the moderate former Senator would wind up endorsing his former opponent for reelection in a couple of races) Mark Warner used this experience to win the Governorship in 2001 and served four years in a state where Governors are not allowed to immediately seek a second term. Many thought Warner might run for President in 2008 but surprised many when he did not. Instead, he ran for the Senate and easily beat the Republican who had succeeded him as Governor. Running for a second term in 2014, which was a rough midterm election for Democrats, Warner came to close to a shocking defeat that was not on anyone's radar, but held on with 49 percent of the vote. The incumbent did not draw a top-tier Republican opponent in 2020 and won 56 percent.

 

Now, as he approaches age 72, Warner is seeking a fourth term in the Senate. One of the wealthiest members of Congress, he would likely become the Chairman of the Intelligence Committee once again if Democrats win a majority. There had been attempts this cycle to challenge him from the left, but nobody made it on to an August primary ballot. The Senator and his wife suffered a personal loss this April when their 36 year old daughter died after battling health issues.

 

After their losses in the 2025 elections, no prominent Virginia Republican stepped forward to challenge Warner. This included former Governor Glenn Youngkin who might want to run for President, but might find it more realistic to run again for Governor in 2029, if he chooses to run for anything at all. A few candidates dropped out of the field before the primary including perceived frontrunner, State Senator Bryce Reeves. He explained his decision to leave the race was due to a family health matter.

 

In a three way Republican primary, retired Army Major General Bert Mizusawa won with about 52 percent of the vote. The son of a first generation Japanese-American, Mizusawa had placed a distant third in a 2010 Republican U.S. House primary and in 2018, the Trump foreign policy advisor ran for the Senate nomination but failed to qualify for the ballot. This year though, he defeated David Williams, a Marine Corps Reserves Colonel who took 27 percent and accountant Kim Farington who took 20 percent.

 

Mizusawa, with his military background as well as time working at the Pentagon should probably be considered a credible candidate, but his ties to Donald Trump are likely not helpful this year in a state that has so many federal workers. He could possibly do better than Warner's last opponent or another recent Virginia Republican Senate nominee, who was a very far-right figure, but not even the most optimistic of MAGA hat wearing acolytes really think they have a shot at flipping Virginia this year.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

16 D (7 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

17 R (4 Safe, 4 Likely, 6 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

50 D (34 holdover, 7 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup) 

48 R (31 holdover, 4 Safe, 4 Likely, 6 Leans, 3 Tossup)