Texas Governor- Race of the Day

28 Days Until Election Day

 

Texas Governor

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

If recent polls are to be believed, we may just be at the point where the Texas Gubernatorial election can be classified as a Tossup. I will see how I feel about that in a couple of weeks, but for now, I think the Republican still probably has a slight edge. This particular race in the Lone Star State has easily been taking a backseat to the premiere U.S. Senate election going on there, but the implications of that race may indeed be having an effect on the entire statewide ticket, and not in a good way for the dominant Texas Republican Party.

 

The political history is well-known. In dozens and dozens of statewide race since 1994, not one Democrat has won, despite some recent hopes for the party in high profile contests. The last Democrat to win anything was a veteran incumbent Lt. Governor, who was fairly conservative and backed by some Republicans. Since then, absolutely nothing. The last Governor elected from the party was Ann Richards in 1990 in an extremely high profile race. To the surprise of many, she was then beaten, pretty solidly, in her 1994 reelection effort by George W. Bush. Texas Republicans have not looked back since, even as the party has shifted in many ways since the Bush days.

 

The last three victories have belonged to Greg Abbott, who is now seeking his fourth term as Governor, which is pretty unheard of anywhere these days. Confined to a wheelchair since being injured as a young man, Abbott previously was Attorney General for three terms. Before that even, Abbott won his first statewide election in 1996, to the Supreme Court, after being appointed to the post by Governor Bush. Still in his late 60s, Abbott has been around for a very long time and it is certainly a question to consider whether voters might just be increasingly tired of him. In 2022, Abbott had his closest race yet, but still won 55-44 over Beto O'Rourke a once highly touted Democrat, who seemingly also had worn out his political welcome by this point.

 

Abbott has likely moved on from any Presidential ambition he once had and seemingly wants to remain Governor for a long time. If he wins this race, he will surpass his predecessor Rick Perry as the longest serving in state history. The current Governor has also changed politically from his days as a mainstream Bush style conservative. Since he first became Governor, he has adapted a more combative persona and has been a leader in the fight against illegal immigration, which was a major issue in his state, which due to a basically closed border may have now ceased in importance. The issue these days is far more about ICE enforcement and deportations. Abbott, who is marred to the first Latina First Lady in Texas history, easily defeated two women in his first Gubernatorial races, including a Latina in 2018.

 

Texas hold early primaries and in March of this year, Abbott took 82 percent against several opponents. The nearest competitor, a former Army Lt. Colonel won 11 percent. Believe it or not, there are Texas Republicans who think Abbott is not conservative enough, but this primary was not as competitive as the one he faced in 2022 and there was obviously no need for a May runoff, unlike the Senate race for Republicans.

 

The media focused attention on a few prominent Democrats who might have run, including most recent nominee O'Rourke, a former Congressman, who also was a U.S. Senate nominee. Firebrand Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett (who unwisely referred to Abbott as "Governor Hot Wheels") was mentioned along with another young politician, State Representative James Talarico. Both of them would wind up interested in running for another office.

 

Considering the losing streak of Texas Democrats, it seemed to be a good idea for them to look outside of the box. Businessman Andrew White, whose father had been a Democrat Governor in the 1980s announced a bid. In 2018, he had run for Governor and lost a competitive primary runoff, and likely would have been a stronger candidate that year against Abbott. This time, White said that he was basically an Independent, but needed to run as a Democrat out of political necessity. Democrats seemed to want to select someone who was actually prouder to be a member of the party and without seeing a path to the nomination, the more moderate White dropped his campaign and endorsed the frontrunner. At that point, I thought it was likely Democrats had thrown away their best chance of winning the Governorship. 

 

White still took five percent in the primary vote after ending his campaign, but that did not matter. The easy winner with 59 percent against several opponents was State Representative Gina Hinojosa, a Latina from South Texas, an area and ethnicity where Republicans had been making massive gains in the state during the Donald Trump years. Among the other primary candidates, former Congressman Chris Bell finished second with 10 percent. Having just serving a couple of years in Congress over a generation ago, Bell was the party's 2006 nominee for Governor but won just 30 percent, as he finished second in an unusual four way general election. Since then, Bell has made some failed attempts at a political comeback.

 

Actor Matthew McConaughey often gets mentioned these days as a potential candidate in his native Texas but he did not say "alright alright alright" to an Independent bid for Governor. The ballot will feature a Libertarian and there are several registered write-ins but it is primarily a contest between the incumbent and his challenger. Both Abbott and the Republican nominee for Senate (the next race to be covered where I will probably have to type until my fingers hurt) have refused invitations to debate their Democrat opponents. Debates used to be a standard part of elections, especially in Texas, and it is too bad that voters will not get the chance to see the nominees square off face to face.  It just means that television ads are going to play a bigger part than ever.

 

Since it became clear she would be the nominee Hinojosa was viewed as someone who would be a credible candidate but was probably going to be too underfunded and considered too liberal to be a true threat to Abbott. There are lots of questions though about Abbott's recent years as Governor in regards to the electrical grid, natural disasters, crime, and his immigration enforcement tactics, which had included shipping folks who arrived in Texas to blue states and cities elsewhere. He has long since been a favorite of many on the right, but it is hard for any politician, to not wear out his or her welcome after to many consecutive years in office, and Abbott certainly cannot claim to not have had a cooperate legislature to work with. The issue of mid-decade redistricting, enacted at the behest of Trump, was pushed through by Abbott last year though it is possible that Republicans will not find the results they were hoping for in U.S. House races this November.  The whole issue spread to other states this cycle and may wind up a political wash all around, but Democrats certainly are not lacking motivation to want to punish Abbott and throw him out of office.  

 

More than anything else though, the fact that the U.S. Senate nominee is the unpopular Attorney General Ken Paxton may be hurting Abbott in his bid for another term. For most of the year, the polls had shown Abbott with a high single digit lead over his challenger, but that has recently narrowed significantly in the latest polls. Paxton himself was recently caught on tape saying that the recent Republican midterm convention, held in Dallas, wound up hurting his campaign and that of all Republicans in the state. There should be little doubt that Abbott is doing better than his fellow Republican Paxton in the polls and will get more votes than him on Election Day, but a sudden political undercurrent hitting the state and taking out the nation's longest serving Governor cannot be overlooked anymore.

 

Texas Hispanics have always been considered more conservative than those in other states, but after George W. Bush's second Presidential campaign, they had been voting reliably Democrat. Under Trump though, starting in 2020 especially, those voters moved strongly to the Republican Party, likely due to cultural issues, crime, and concerns about the burden of illegal immigration. These Latino voters, especially in South Texas, have become a key part of the Republican coalition under Trump. Now, many might feel that they are not getting what they voted for and that aspects of the Administration in DC, fully backed by Abbott in Texas, have gone too far. I think those voters were quite naive, but that is a discussion for another day. This year, Texas Democrats have nominated an Hispanic woman from South Texas (along with a Senate candidate that seems to appeal to them too) and those who have been casting Republican votes may be switching back to Democrats and that will tell the tale. Of course, in order to win in Texas, Democrats will need strong support from African-Americans, and some believe that black voters may not be as motivated as Latinos to show up and vote in heavy numbers this cycle.

 

A couple of recent polls, which have also shown Paxton moving further behind his opponent, now show a virtual dead heat in the race for Governor, or with Hinojosa even up a point or two. To use a cliche, this is a major developing political story Texas going Blue in either race would probably be the story of the midterm. I think it happening in the Governor race would be the more surprising outcome though. 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

19 D (2 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

14 R (2 Safe, 5 Likely, 5 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

25 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

22 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 5 Likely, 5 Leans, 2 Tossup)