Wyoming Governor- Race of the Day

19 Days Until Election Day

Wyoming Governor

Status: Republican Open 

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

 

Outlook: Safe Republican

 

The drama might be over for Race of the Day but I will continue to the alphabetical finish line by talking about Wyoming, perhaps the most Republican of all states.

After two terms, Republican Governor Mark Gordon was ineligible to run again. At least that is what many think. There is apparently some confusion about just how rock-solid Wyoming's term limit rules are. This issue has been raised before and for months there was speculation that Gordon might seek to challenge the law that prevented him from running in 2026. He ultimately decided not to do so, setting up an open contest. I think perhaps somebody in the White House might have been interested if Gordon tried to fight those saying he could not run again and at least see what narrative might have developed.

Heading into this cycle, many people thought that Wyoming's lone U.S. House Member Harriet Hageman was interested in running for Governor, as she had before in 2018 when she finished in third place in the Republican primary won by Gordon. However, a different statewide opportunity suddenly presented herself and she took that path instead. In turn, Hageman leaving her House seat to run for Senate opened that up for ambitious Republicans also and a couple of potential Gubernatorial candidates, including one who holds statewide office ran for that Congressional spot. A couple of the other Republican constitutional officers took the easy path of seeking reelection.

Four Republicans did run for Governor, with three of them considered major contenders in the August primary. Early on, the Donald Trump endorsement went to Megan Degenfeld the young blonde statewide elected Superintendent of Public Instruction. Hageman and some conservative organizations endorsed her as well and it looked like Degenfeld could be in a very good position to become the next Governor. However, a committee of the Wyoming Republican Party took the unusual step and a controversial one to endorse a candidate before the primary. They did not affirm Trump's choice and endorsed retired Marine Corps Colonel Brent Bien. In 2022, he had challenged Governor Gordon in a primary and was defeated 62-30. in a race in which I assume he ran to the right of the incumbent. His supporters also launched a write-in effort for Bien in the general election and while that effort was part of a total of six percent for write off, it barely made a blip in Gordon's gigantic landslide over a Democrat.

All of this seemingly left an opening for State Senator Eric Barlow. The rancher and veterinarian had served 10 years in the State House, the last two as Speaker, before joining the State Senate in 2023. The bearded cowboy hat wearing Barlow seems to perhaps be a Republican more in the mold of the establishment sort which had produced Gordon as well as the previous Republican Governor. Still, considering Trump's strength  among party members of Wyoming, it was very impressive that Barlow beat the Trump backed Degenfelder 45-30. Barlow did not even participate in the process that the state party had to endorse a candidate. The state party backed Bien, who seems to have been the choice of MAGA types who did not even care that Trump picked the candidate who sort of physically resembles someone that could be his daughter Ivanka, took 24 percent. Perhaps Trump should have asked the soon to be out of office Degenfelder if she wanted to be the new White House Press Secretary. (Maybe something they might even still consider.) Apparently, not all Republicans in the state love that Barlow is their nominee for Governor. Businesswoman Rebecca Bextel, who had been a Republican activist and features Trump on her website, is running under the banner of the Constitution Party.

Speaking of websites, the nominee of Wyoming Democrats does not even have an official one in this internet age year of 2026. The only member of the party to run was restaurant owner Ken Casner. This is his third run for Governor. He had finished last in a 2002 primary and close to last in a 2018 bid. Even in a cycle that could be a political tsunami for Democrats, he will top out in this race at maybe 25 percent.

Predicted Gubernatorial Races:

20 D (2 Safe, 9 Likely, 6 Leans, 3 Tossup)

16 R (3 Safe, 5 Likely, 6 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Total predicted Governors:

26 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 9 Likely, 6 Leans, 3 Tossup)

24 R (8 holdover, 3 Safe, 6 Likely, 5 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Democrat net gain of 2

 

Updated predictions to be posted in a couple of days.