South Carolina U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 34 Days Until Election Day

South Carolina U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

There is nothing that would probably be considered a greater embarrassment to Donald Trump in this midterm election than seeing the Republican Party lose this seat in South Carolina. If the polls are to be believed, that is a possibility. Reality and recent political history though still makes it at least somewhat of a longshot.

 

Six years ago, during a Presidential cycle where Trump was on the ballot, three term incumbent Senator Lindsey Graham was thought of being in a very tight race. His opponent was raising a ton of money from Democrats across the country and the political world was watching. Graham won by 10 points. Throughout his career in politics, Lindsey Graham never lost an election on which he was on the ballot, despite earning the enmity of Democrats, and also many Republicans, despite being well-liked by those who actually knew him.

 

Graham went through a variety of political identities and some of it may be best left to the psychological community to analyze. He definitely used to be one my favorite Senators, as I shared his positions and worldview on most issues. During a quixotic 2016 Presidential campaign he clashed viciously with Trump. Then, after Trump became President, and Graham's longtime friend and colleague John McCain died, the South Carolinian moved much closer to Trump seeming to relish in friendship and access. On the night of January 6, 2021, Graham took to the Senate floor and seemed to break up with Trump. That did not last long at all. While the Senator continued to at times express disagreement with the Trump Administration, he often went out of his way to flatter his former rival. The two men talked frequently and played golf together. Trump's support likely prevented the bottom from falling in on Graham's career, and maybe that is what it was always all about. Many on the right had long been leery of Graham and the idea that he was in favor of "amnesty" for illegal immigrants, or that he was a "warmonger." There is no denying that Graham, an Air Force attorney who served honorably himself, was extremely hawkish on matters of foreign policy, which is anathema to everything some in MAGA believe in, though pretty inline with Trump's decision to go to war with Iran this year.

 

Graham had faced tough primaries before, but had always managed to win the Republican nomination without a runoff. This June, the same thing happened, as the Trump endorsed incumbent won renomination with 57 percent of the vote against five opponents. A couple of announced candidates withdrew, only pretty late in the game, in order to try to make things tougher for Graham avoiding a runoff, but that hope was not meant to be. Finishing in second place with 27 percent was businessman Mark Lynch who presented himself as a much more conservative alternative to the man who had been on Capitol Hill since 1995.

 

After the primary, Lynch did not offer a formal endorsement, but the general election was on between Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews, a telegenic pediatrician. She had run for Congress in 2022 and had taken 43 percent against incumbent Nancy Mace. In this year's primary, Andrews won 62 percent against two opponents. The second place candidate was Brandon Brown, a former collegiate official, who had also previously lost Congressional races. He took 30 percent, but it appeared that many of South Carolina's African-American Democrats went with Andrews believing she would be the best financed and most politically viable candidate against Graham. She did look like she could run a credible race, and there was always hope that enough people on the right would not show up for the incumbent, who was seen as more damaged politically than ever for a variety of reasons, but few expected she would beat him in conservative South Carolina.

 

In July, just after a month from the primary, as he was preparing to make one of his many appearances on Meet the Press, Senator Graham died suddenly of a heart condition at age 71. While the typical ghouls online from both ideological extremes said nasty things about him, many other Democrats and Republicans joined together to praise his service to the country. Graham will always be considered a complicated figure, in my view a tragic one, but one cannot doubt he loved his country.

 

Now, Republicans needed to quickly replace him both in the U.S. Senate and his spot on the ballot for the November election. Andrews, the nominee of Democrats, was left in a bit of a holding pattern until things were resolved. Term-limited Republican Governor Henry McMaster would make the appointment, but it was clear he would listen to whatever Donald Trump told him to do, and most believed Republican primary voters, who would quickly be sent back to the polls for one and maybe two more rounds of Senate nomination selection, would go along with his endorsement as well. 

 

Many ambitious Republicans wanted to run for this seat. An open seat in South Carolina for Senate does not come up often at all. It was thought that the Governor would pick a placeholder to go to Washington and vote the way Republican Leaders wanted, while others would fight it out in a flash primary. Lt Governor Pamela Evette, who had just lost in an embarrassing way a Gubernatorial runoff, even with McMaster's support (and Trump's reduced support from full to half), might have had a soft political landing but she was not chosen. Neither was Congressman Joe Wilson, the Dean of the state delegation, and the father of the Gubernatorial nominee, Attorney General Alan Wilson. After all, he wanted to remain in the House.

 

Trump surprised many by putting out a statement saying that he wanted Graham's sister to be named to the Senate. Darline Graham Nordone, who would soon drop the married name she had been using for clear political purposes, had been involved in her brother's campaigns but had never run for office. The story of how Lindsey raised his young sister after both of their parents had passed away was well known. His loss was clearly a deep and surprising personal tragedy for Mrs. Nordone and she deserved much sympathy, as the Senator did not have a family of his own beyond her and hers. It seemed a bit jarring but perhaps understandable that she would want to carry on his legacy during the final months of his term. In the past, widows have been named to replace deceased husbands, but it had been decades since that last happened, and it did not appear a sibling was ever named to replace another in such a way. Darline Graham had a career in public administration for the State of South Carolina and served in some leadership roles, but nothing was known about her particular views or why she actually wanted to be a Senator despite her stated desire to vote the way Donald Trump wanted her to vote. She was quickly sworn into office and had a very busy several days on home and on Capitol Hill before her brother was laid to rest.

 

The expectation though was that the new Senator Graham would be a temp and the actual politicians started jockeying. This included many who had just lost the primary for Governor including Congresswoman Nancy Mace and Congressman Ralph Norman. During this summer, there was still some uncertainty if the U.S. House map for the state was going to be changed for redistricting and perhaps a new primary held which would allow them to run again for the seats they gave up for Governor, That ultimately did not happen. Mace, after a poor showing in the Gubernatorial primary would not run for Senate, but Norman would, and Mace, who had praised the appointment of Darline Graham, would wind up endorsing Norman.

 

The new primary field also included Mark Lynch, who had finished second in the June primary and several others. Announcing a bid was Mark Sanford, who had served as Governor (and had an infamous extra-marital scandal) in between two stints in the U.S. House, where he had once been a close Graham ally. Sanford had turned down comeback bids before, including this year for Governor, but did briefly run in 2020 as an anti-Trump Republican against the incumbent, which of course barely caused a ripple. This was after he lost a 2020 primary for renomination in his Congressional district after Trump endorsed an opponent (who would go on to lose to a Democrat.)

 

Also announcing a bid and considered a strong possibility for a Presidential endorsement was Congressman Russell Fry. He had been recruited by Trump to run for Congress in 2022 against a Republican incumbent who voted to impeach him, and Fry easily won the nomination. He was running for reelection in 2026 but jumped into the Senate contest, perhaps with encouragement from some in Trump's orbit. There was an open question about what that would mean for his Congressional district. He could not serve in both offices obviously, though it appeared he would be able to run for both. Thus, if Fry became a Senator, his House seat, which he would be expected to win, would go vacant until a special election could be held. Perhaps he realized Republicans were on the verge of losing House control and did not care about getting out of there.

 

Developments were happening fast and then suddenly Trump posted that he wanted Darline Graham to run for the full term. He really seems to like the idea of nepotism and the concept of business or political "royalty." At this point, Graham had seemingly agreed to be a candidate. She went from probably never even thinking of running for office to being a sitting U.S. Senator and someone asking the voters to send her there for an additional six years, in virtually a mater of days. Many across the Republican Party at least privately expressed dismay about all of this, thinking that others were far more deserving of a full Senate term than someone whose only claim was being the sister of the person who had held the job before. I think Darline Graham is likely a very nice and intelligent person, but I cannot imagine she gave all of this the proper thought, especially while grieving.

 

On the campaign trail, the grandmotherly Graham was stilted and scripted, but she had the Trump endorsement going for her. She continued to say she would support his agenda down the line. For whatever reason, the political sycophancy was running in the family. While Lindsey Graham was known for his foreign policy views, his sister said she was more focused on cost of living and pocketbook issues. Clearly, someone told her about what polls were saying (even though Trump has been dismissing those concerns as a "hoax."

 

On August 11, the vote was held among Republicans and Graham, with Trump's endorsement, took first but with just 33 percent of the vote. The 73 year old Congressman Ralph Norman, a one-time conservative firebrand favorite, who hurt himself politically by endorsing Nikki Haley for President, advanced to the runoff with 25 percent. Fry took 20 and was free to try to explain his maneuvering while running again in his Congressional district, Sanford won 15 percent in what was likely his political swan song, and Lynch was way back with 6 percent.

 

Two weeks later, Graham and Norman would have voters show up again to determine the runoff. Trump definitely did not want Norman to win, considering the Nikki Haley relationship (and she was of course supporting him here as she did for Governor) but many in MAGA just did not like the idea of Darline Graham, or for that matter, any Graham, serving in the Senate. Fry did his duty to Trump and lined up behind her though for the runoff. The leadership on Capitol Hill were of course supporting the new incumbent Senator as well. Sanford and Lynch, plus some conservative grassroots organizations backed Norman.  The current Governor was behind Graham, whom he had appointed, but Alan Wilson, the new nominee for Governor stayed neutral.

 

A televised debate was held and there was a pretty cringe moment for Darline Graham. When asked about U.S. support for Taiwan, she said that while her brother was in the military and she supported it, national security was "not her thing" and seemed genuinely clueless about the major issue, all while a giant yellow legal pad was stretched down her podium. Frankly, Norman should have hit on this pretty hard politically but seemed to hold back. Graham was forced to admit that she did not know much about foreign policy or national security but it was not something the voters were thinking much about anyway. In many ways, she might have been right. Still, in the final days, the polls were extremely close, and it was uncertain whether Graham or Norman would advance. Trump showed up to do a rally though and his choice pulled through 52-48, hardly a strong showing, all things considered. Norman conceded the loss but has said some odd things since, including what seemed to be a call for voters to write him in on the November ballot. He has since stated his endorsement, but has questioned why Trump supported his former opponent and likely speaks for others.

 

Considering the political nature of South Carolina, Darline Graham is favored to embark on an extension of her time in the Senate. I did not think she would agree to debate Dr. Andrews, but apparently, one will occur on October 11 and I think that will likely get a lot of attention. The Democrat is pointing out that Graham is merely reading scripts "written in Washington D.C." and does not really have any views or qualifications of her own. That could be a powerful argument this year. Republicans are saying that Andrews is very far to the left and has said things and made videos that are too "woke" including one in which she criticized her fellow white women for voting for Trump. Andrews, who seems to be far more comfortable with television cameras and interviews, is focusing much on health care. Not long ago, Graham seemed to state that her experience with health care was that her hard-working, self-sufficient parents died young and that seemed to justify a position against government involvement in the matter. What she said really did not make much sense and could easily be classified as making her opponent's case for her. Andrews is very much stressing her pro-choice views in this race on the abortion issue, where the Grahams are identified with an anti-abortion position. Nationally, this might be a political plus for Andrews, but it is less clear that it can move swing voters in South Carolina, which of course does have a very strong Pro-Life base of support as well.

 

Some recent polls are showing a dead heat in South Carolina, which is pretty amazing on its face. Darline Graham, while a sympathetic character, is just not a strong candidate. There are many other South Carolina Republicans (though perhaps not ones like Mace or Norman) who would be faring a whole lot better right now. I still find it less likely than not that a Democrat can actually win a federal statewide race in South Carolina, but am willing to keep an eye on what develops. If there is indeed a political tsunami in the offering for the blue team, this one is very much in play. If Donald Trump decides to go to South Carolina for a big rally, that will be a sign of immense worry about the state and the need to get the MAGA base to show up. These days though, a Trump visit, might have his own unintended political consequences.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

14 D (7 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

15 R (3 Safe, 4 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

48 D (34 holdover, 7 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

46 R (31 holdover, 3 Safe, 4 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)