White House Race- June 15, 2024

In just twelve days, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are scheduled to meet on CNN for an early summer debate. We now know there will be podiums and microphones will be off except at the candidates' designated times for speaking. Will there really even be a debate though? The closer we get, the worse it would look for one candidate to pull out. It appears that the Biden campaign is planning to invest far more time and effort into debate prep and rehearsal than the Trump campaign. That will probably appear obvious when the clash gets underway, but the entire event may go south quickly because of something said that is crazy and unpredictable.

We do know that the debate will feature a convicted felon against the father of a convicted felon. Trump will do all he can to make it seem like whatever Hunter Biden did is the fault of Joe Biden, and that could put the incumbent President in an awkward position. This was yet another historic week in the history of the Presidency. It only took a few hours for a federal jury in Delaware to find Hunter Biden guilty of three gun related crimes. The younger Biden, who has seemingly gotten away with bad behavior because of his name and connections, is now the first child of a President ever to be convicted of a crime. His father is saying he will not pardon his son and will not commute any sentence. He better mean it, because if Joe Biden goes back on that promise, to intervene on behalf of his son, it will be a profoundly huge scandal and have a tremendous negative impact on peoples' view of government, which is already quite low these days. Hunter is not expected to be sentenced to prison for what he has been convicted of, but he still does have federal tax charges pending in California, and that could complicate the situation for him personally and for his father politically. The younger Biden, who is an attorney himself, and who had a very high powered team of lawyers, should definitely have tried to work out another plea deal instead of fighting the federal government. They thought they could beat this rap in court and failed miserably. Now, might be a good time for the young Biden's legal team to try to cut another deal. One thing is certain, despite all the supposed sympathy that Trump has been expressing towards Hunter's addiction issues, if he becomes President again, he might very well target the son of his rival for harsh punishment.

By and large, Democrats have applauded the guilty verdict and this entire situation must be extremely difficult for the Biden Family on a personal standpoint. However, there is political opportunity in such misery. It allows a contrast between the parties and leaders in regards to "respecting" the judicial process and the outcome of a jury. Had Biden been acquitted, supporters of Trump would have gone berserk in a way that cannot even be comprehended. They would have complained about a "two tiered system of justice" and government rigged against Republicans and in favor of Democrats. It would have been a gift to the the kind of campaign Donald Trump is trying to run.

MAGA world seemed discombobulated by this verdict and the realization that the Biden Justice Department led a successful felony prosecution against Biden's only living son. Many on the right are trying to say this is just a diversion and that Hunter should never have been charged because of Second Amendment reasons (which does make this entire situation and the scenarios involving appears quite intriguing) and that it is just distracting from more serious things done by the older Biden. Had the verdict gone another way, they would have definitely had a different, more focused narrative. I think they are actually quite upset not to be able to use that avenue of rage.

There is a bit of a similar story at play on the left though. While many on that side remain busy engaging in completely pointless and politically lame complaints about conservative Justices on the Supreme Court and their family members, there were some decisions handed down by SCOTUS this week. One of them, upheld the legality of a widely used abortion pill. This was a 9-0 decision, which seems pretty rare in our polarized times. The overall decision had to do with standing, and in fact, there may be future challenges to this particular pill, but one would think that those who call themselves pro-choice, would be immensely relieved by such a huge and unquestionable legal victory.

Many on the left seem upset about this legal action though. They wanted to be on the losing side, or to at least have the "right-wing" Justices on the other side of this abortion battle for political reasons. People like Justices Alito and Thomas would have surely been denounced if they voted against the pro-choice side but the fact that they voted for the pro-choice side has a lot of pro-choicers angry and thinking there is a political conspiracy at play. Both sides these days seem to not want to accept yes for an answer and would rather be angry about a court decision or a jury verdict than respecting the process.

These were some of the bigger stories of the week. Some of the other news involved Trump visiting the Capitol Hill area for the first time since he incited an attempted insurrection in early 2021. Needless to say, and to my great disappointment, almost all of the federal elected class of Republicans, including those who appeared ready to turn on Trump three years ago, are now completely behind him. Regardless of their true thoughts of him, he is the undisputed leader of the party, and they are falling in line. At least Senators like Mitt Romney and a couple of others were smart enough to not show up. Behind closed doors, reports leaked that Trump ranted and rambled about a myriad of odd topics and grievances. However, when the cameras were on, and in small interview settings, Trump seemed surprisingly subdued. He seemed to compare Hunter Biden's addiction battle to one he has seen in his own family (presumably his older brother Fred's) and also all but endorsed the Maryland Senate candidacy of anti-Trump former GOP Governor Larry Hogan. Previously, allies of Trump had given signals that they opposed Hogan. By voicing support for Hogan, it probably put the Republican in a very confusing position. Hogan pointed out he did not support Trump the previous times he ran for President and is not supporting him this time (ie, my kind of Republican.) Was Trump trying to screw Hogan by "endorsing" him or was he trying to place nice to the party and give a call for unity? In any event, Hogan basically had no choice but to reject the endorsement. I am glad he did.

One month from today, Republicans will gather in Milwaukee to nominate Trump. At the closed door meetings with Congressional Republicans, the soon to be official nominee was reported to call Milwaukee a "horrible city." As a Chicago sports fan, I would endorse that notion, and add Green Bay to the mix too, but I do not think that was Trump's perspective.. Despite the fact that this comment leaked, many of the Republican officials in the room denied he said it or tried to explain he was only talking about crime. It is pretty odd though for a candidate to denounce the host city that is soon to host his coronation and Democrats in Wisconsin are trying to make a great deal of hay (or cheese) over this. It makes sense in a way though for Trump to attack Milwaukee in an attempt to appeal to the  suburban and rural Wisconsinites he will need to reclaim the state he won in 2016 but lost in 2020.

The biggest news out of the Milwaukee convention is likely to be the rollout of Trump's next running-mate. Numerous contenders are being very non-subtle in lobbying for the gig. A short-list has been released in terms of those who are currently being "vetted." Three of the contenders are African-Americans but if I guess, I think Trump will still pick a white man. If I were a part of a Fox News "Candidates' Casino" panel, I would put most of my chips down on Doug Burgum. One never can really be sure what Trump,who turned 78 yesterday, might really be thinking.

As a final note, I would like to make note that this past week marked what would have been the 100th birthday of President George Herbert Walker Bush, a true American patriot, throughout his entire life. In 1992, faced with poor polling numbers, he finished second in a three way race, while seeking reelection. These days, Americans of various political stripes likely wish that someone like him was still around as an option to cast a vote.