Sunday, July 30, 2006

Alabama Governor Race

Race of the Day

Alabama Governor

July 30, 2006

100 Days Until Election Day

Status: Republican Incumbent
2004 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Likely Republican

The race for Governor of Alabama is a prime example of how quickly political fortunes can turn around for the better.

Through the first couple years of his term, Republican Governor Bob Riley was seen as somebody who was extremely politically endangered and many speculated he would not even seek reelection due in large part to a tax structuring position he took that angered many in his own party.

Nonetheless, Riley has been able to bounce back since then for a variety of reasons, including what was seen as strong leadership in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and the Governor was able to easily dispatch what once looked like an extremely tough primary opponent in former State Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore, a hero of many social and religious conservatives. The Riley vs. Moore primary battle was once much hyped, but in the end was fairly anti-climactic.

The same can be said to some degree about the victory of Riley’s general election opponent in the Democrat primary. Lt. Governor Lucy Baxley comfortably defeated former Governor Don Siegelman without the need of a runoff, even though some polls had shown a very close race between the two of them before the June primary. Siegelman, who was narrowly defeated by Riley in 2002, was hampered by having to campaign while at the same time sitting on trial on federal corruption charges, of which he has since been convicted.

Polls currently show Riley’s job approval ratings continuing to move upwards and Democrats who were once extremely bullish about the possibility of winning back this office now concede that the race is clearly Riley’s to lose.

The likeable and charismatic Baxley is definitely a candidate to take seriously, but the knock on her is that she might be more about personality and smiles (and capitalizing one the last name of her former husband, a crusading Alabama Attorney General who was very popular with African-Americans) and that she is less about substance and new ideas.

Polls taken before the primary had shown Governor Riley starting to build a solid lead, but since the general election match-up has been set, every poll has shown him moving even further ahead with a significant lead in the double digits over Baxley in this reliably conservative state.

When all is said and done, it now appears that Riley is likely to win a second term, ending a streak of several Alabama Governors being defeated for reelection, and will probably approach the 60 percent mark in the popular vote. All of which would have been hard to believe back when it looked like Bob Riley did not stand a chance of even making it to a general election in 2006.

As will be customary, I welcome the input of Alabamians or anybody else on this race.

Riley campaign link:

2006 Gubernatorial races predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Predicted totals for 2007 thus far: 8 D, 7 R

Feasting on Cardinal

I promised that this would not be the kind of blog where I do a lot of commentary on current events, but since this is new, I have to direct this to a couple of people in particular, who will surely know who they are.....

So, what about that Cubs sweep of the Cardinals?

We just own you this year! The Cardinals cannot in Chiacgo this year, even if they played the minor league Kane County Cougars .

Even going back to last year, the Cubs just have the number of St. Louis in a big way.

So, when you are playing in October, just be very grateful that you will not have to deal with the one National League team that you cannot beat... the mighty Chicago Cubs!

This was the first four game sweep of the Cardinals by the Cubs since July of 1972. Back then, the Democrats were still intent on following the political direction and philosophy of George McGovern.

I guess the more things change, the more they stay the same..............

Holdover U.S. Senators

Here is the list of the 2/3rds of the U.S. Senate who can afford to go on lengthy vacations and if they listen to Robert Wexler, might even be free to engage in cocaine and prostitutes, since they are not going to be facing the voters this year:

AL- Richard Shelby- R
AL -Jeff Sessions- R
AK- Ted Stevens-R
AK- Lisa Murkowski- R
AZ-John McCain-R
AR- Blanche Lincoln- D
AR- Mark Pryor- D
CA- Barbara Boxer- D
CO- Wayne Allard- R
CO- Ken Salazar- D
CT- Christopher Dodd- D
DE- Joe Biden- D
FL- Mel Martinez- R
GA- Saxby Chambliss- R
GA- Johnny Isakson- R
HI- Daniel Inoyue- D
ID- Larry Craig- R
ID- Michael Crapo- D
IL - Dick Durbin- D
IL - Barack Obama-D
IN- Evan Bayh- D
IA- Charles Grassley- R
IA- Tom Harkin- D
KS- Sam Brownback- R
KS- Pat Roberts- R
KY- Mitch McConnell- R
KY- Jim Bunning- R
LA- Mary Landrieu- D
LA- David Vitter- R
ME- Susan Collins- R
MD- Barbara Mikulksi- D
MA- John Kerry- D
MI- Carl Levin-D
MN- Norm Coleman- R
MS- Thad Cochran- R
MO- Christopher Bond- R
MT- Max Baucus- D
NE- Chuck Hagel- R
NV- Harry Reid- D
NH- Judd Gregg- R
NH- John Sununu- R
NJ- Frank Lautenberg- D
NM- Pete Domenici- R
NY- Chuck Schumer- D
NC- Elizabeth Dole- R
NC- Richard Burr- R
ND- Byron Dorgan- D
OH- George Voinovich- R
OK- Jim Inhofe- R
OK- Tom Coburn- R
OR- Ron Wyden- D
OR- Gordon Smith- R
PA- Arlen Specter- R
RI- Jack Reed- D
SC- Lindsey Graham-R
SC- Jim DeMint- R
SD- Tim Johnson- D
SD- John Thune- R
TN-Lamar Alexander- R
TX- John Cornyn- R
UT- Robert Bennett- R
VT- Patrick Leahy- D
VA- John Warner- R
WA- Patty Murray- D
WV- John Rockefeller-D
WI- Russ Feingold- D
WY- Mike Enzi- R

Hopefully, this list is complete and accurate. In case their was any confusion, there is no need for any of these Senators to pack up their office this year that we can think of.

So, when you liberals turn on CNN on Election Night, and Keith Olberman's and Chris Matthews' famlilies turn on MSNBC, and the rest of America turn on Fox News, the beginning balance of power will be:

40 Republicans
27 Democrats

That figure alone demonstrates that it will be pretty difficult for Democrats to win the majority in the U.S. Senate. Just on the basis of holdovers, the Republicans are just one vote away from being able to sustain a filibuster, and Trent Lott has not even been declared the winner in Mississippi yet.

Holdover Governors

A little later tonight, I will get started by posting on the Alabama Gubernatorial race, but as I do these races day by day, I will be keeping a running tally of my predictions for the balance of power of the Governorships (which really do not mean too much in the grand scheme of things) and in the U.S. Senate (where it most certainly does matter.)

So, just to get this out of the way, here is a list of the Governors in states that are not having those elections in 2006, and thus will automatically be included in the running tally from this point forward.

DE- Ruth Ann Minner- D
IN- Mitch Daniels- R
KY- Ernie Fletcher- R
LA- Kathleen Blanco-D
MS- Haley Barbour- R
MO- Matt Blunt- R
MT- Brian Schweitzer- D
NJ- Jon Corzine-D
NC- Michael Easley- D
ND- John Hoeven- R
UT- Jon Huntsman- R
VA- Tim Kaine- D
WA- Christine Gregoire- D
WV- Joe Manchin- D

So, assuming nothing unforeseen happens to these guys and gals for 2007, the opening tally will be:

8 Democrats
6 Republicans

And a heck of a lot of states electing Chiefs Executive this year.

I don't know.... Anybody have any wacky stories about these 14?

Should I bother with Haloscan?

Ok, I signed up for Haloscan and it looks sort of complicated. Maybe one day, one of you internet geeks out there can help guide me, but for now, I think the comment section could work in this format. All you have to do if you do not have a blogger account is to sign a name to your post. You can even do it as anonymous, as long as you stay on topic.


An Introduction

Hello from the Land of Lincoln!

Well, it looks like I have finally done it.

I have actually joined the Legion of Losers who have their own blog.

Wow, this is a proud moment.

Rest assured though, that I will be taking this blog somewhat less seriously than others.

Many of you who come across this may know me from my stellar posting in the comments section of Ron Gunzburger's Politics1. com, a worthwhile and informative site (in spite of becoming increasingly caustic and left-wing) that I have been visiting since 1997.

I have decided to create this waste of space on the internet because there are now officially 100 days left to go before the 2006 midterm elections, and I want to have a centralized place to store a little something I will call the "Race of the Day."

In this feature, I will go through the states, purely in alphabetical order, and write (hopefully brief) comments on the races on those states for Governor and United States Senate. Once I finish with that about 69 days from now, I will then start with all 435 House races by state in alphabetical order, probably several states at a time. And no, don't worry my fellow political junkies, I will not be discussing *every* one of those 435 races in detail.

This blog, at least at this time, is not a place for discussion of the news of the day, etc, it is purely a place for people to read my analysis of the various 2006 races and to weigh in with their own comments. There are lots of other places to look on the internet for updated political news, but that is not my intention. Some of these races discussed will be occurring after party primaries have determined the candidates (such as Alabama), others (such as Alaska) will be discussed in advance of a primary. That is just a factor to consider, but I am doing this purely in alphabetical order.

I will also be posting these every day (hopefully) in the comment section of I will do the best I can to have these posts be as accurate as possible in terms of spelling, grammar, punctuation, and lack of typos, but perfection is hard to achieve, especially as I try to find the time to keep up with all of this in the midst of a fairly busy day-day to life.

Everybody is human, and if I happen to make any sort of factual error (remember disagreeing with me does not count as an "error" on my part), please help me correct the record by leaving a comment in that section or by sending me an email.

As I continue to ramble here, let me point out the obvious.....

These posts will be what I see happening in these states and in these races. Not necessarily today or tomorrow, but on Election Day, 100 days from today.

I write these with the full understanding that as a proud, partisan, and unyielding Republican, who literally bleeds GOP Red, I cannot help but be less than impartial. I want Republicans to win every single one of these races. I am rooting for that to happen, but as someone who has been really into politics for the past 18 years, and who happens to have a degree in the field, I realize that will not happen.

So, hopefully, I will be able to reach that balance where it appears clear that while I want Republicans to win everything, I will tell it like I see it, in the various analyses.

If you agree or disagree with how I see things, I welcome your input either at Politics1 or at the comments here. I have to figure out if I am tech savvy enough to install haloscan for comments now. I am amazed I got this far.

Well, thanks for your attention and hopefully I will not get sick of this in just a couple days.....