White House Race- June 22, 2004

This week felt like there was a lot going on in the news, but an event next week will dominate everything else.

It might be too late for either to pull out now, so it looks like Joe Biden and Donald Trump are going to meet in a CNN studio in Atlanta to be asked questions without an audience present, by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash (cue the Jews run the media conspiracy theories.) It appears this CNN event will also be aired live by other cable news networks and the major broadcast networks. Independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. has not qualified to make the debate stage. He is of course blaming that on the CIA and all sorts of other conspiracies. The man is a true nutcase, and still people will vote for him because he is a Kennedy and because is not Trump nor Biden. In some ways this is karma for Democrats worshiping the Kennedys and excusing all of them of many sins, public and private, for decades. It cannot be denied that Democrats are being far more active in trying to keep Kennedy off of ballots than Republicans are. Kennedy is posing a greater risk to Biden than Trump. It is also worth nothing that Kennedy's overall fundraising is said to be abysmal. He picked that wealthy tech executive as his running-mate seemingly just so she could help finance the whole thing. On that front, it should also concern Democrats that Trump out raised Biden recently, after his criminal conviction, and the expected huge cash advantage that the party was counting on having over Republicans may not exist.

As we all know, having a debate this early, before party conventions have been held, and even before one candidate selects a running-mate, is unheard of. There is truly much at stake, perhaps more so than any Presidential debate in history. Will Trump or Biden exceed expectations, live up to them, or fall short? Both of them have the potential to cause more harm for their campaign than anything else, although Biden is perhaps most at risk. If he demonstrates anything to cause consternation among Democrats in regards to his age or ability to function as President, all political hell is going to break loose. On the contrary, if he exceeds what appear to be low expectations, he will have helped put his biggest negative to rest, at least temporarily.

Some folks on the right are obsessed with the concept that Biden will be dumped as the candidate and replaced by someone who would seemingly fare better against Trump. They are spooked by the concept. I firmly believe that Biden has no intention of ending his reelection campaign and should be expected to be on the ballot in November. However, this becomes a legitimate question if he "bombs" the debate. Already, it should be noted that basically every incumbent President to ever take part in a debate (with the possible exception of Bill Clinton in 1996) got negative reviews at least in their first reelection cycle debate. Neither candidate has taken part in a debate since the weird Covid dominated face-offs against each other in 2020. Back then, snap polls showed that Biden had "won" but that was mostly about just how horrified most Americans were by Trump's performance and behavior. As I recall, Biden did not exactly rise to the occasion either those nights.

This time, the microphones will be cut off if someone tries to speak over the allotted time. Will that help or hurt Trump? For one thing, I find it hard to believe he will not keep speaking or interrupting whether he has a microphone on or not, but if he is disciplined enough to resist the temptation, he could surprise people in a positive way. It is being said that while Trump is not holding mock debates, unlike Biden who is basically holed up at Camp David rehearsing for several days, he is honing up on issues and will try to come across as substantive. He sure does not seem that way at his rallies though. Trump raised some eyebrows this past week when he said that he would allow immigrants who graduate from American universities or even junior colleges, to automatically receive green cards. I want to know does that also hold for those who were brought to America illegally by their parents when they were children? If so, that is basically endorsing the "Dreamers", and much of Trump's populist base would have to hate that idea. Of course, people who vote for Trump are willing to overlook a lot. Perhaps in a future week, we can talk some more about the party's sudden and awkward embrace of the Ten Commandments required to be displayed in public school classrooms.

Political observers seem to have a basic idea of how Trump will come across in the debate. Some people will hate it and some will love it. The fact-checkers will have to work overtime just to itemize every untruthful thing he says. Biden will also say untruthful things, but nowhere near the same level that Trump will. So, how will Biden look and sound and come across? Again, if it goes badly, there will have to be serious conversations about it being early enough to swap him out as the nominee. I think it probably will not come to that, but too many Democrats, and apparently people within Biden's inner circle are in denial about just how big of a problem this is for them. Trump, also an elderly man, whom like Biden has filter issues, might also possibly get some basic facts or names wrong or lose his train of thought or say something that makes him seem senile. That will create all sorts of uncomfortable questions for that campaign. Sadly though, as a once proud Republican, I see no scenario where the party/cult would somehow dump Trump as the nominee.

'

One way or another, next week will mark the start of a new stage of the campaign. The Trump people are trying to have things both ways. For years now, they are saying, fairly openly, that Biden has dementia and is getting worse. Now, they are trying to raise expectations for their opponent a bit. They are already pre-rebutting that Biden will be "jacked up" on some sort of drug, (sometimes they say cocaine) and that will make him have a strong debate performance. Gee, does it work that way? The most ardent of MAGA acolytes might even believe such a ridiculous assertion, but I do not know if many Americans overall are going to believe that Biden doing well is because he was on performance enhancing drugs or look kindly on that accusation being made after the fact as an excuse. If anything, they would probably want Biden to take whatever he is taking if it helps him be a better President.

 

There was a lot of talk last week about "cheapfake" videos in which actual images of Biden are shown out of context or an incomplete way. The White House started to take greater umbrage to them and I cannot say I blame them. Still though, perception becomes reality in politics, and Democrats do not have clean hands in this matter, going back decades now. What the MAGA machine is doing though is beyond dishonest in claiming that since Joe Biden is a old, often awkward, white man (who does seem to have slowed down physically since taking office), that he has dementia, or "can't find his way off a stage" or needs to be led around by handlers or is "pooping himself" at public events. 

The debate is Thursday night and next Saturday, it will probably be the main focus of a lengthy blog entry. Eventually, we can maybe talk more about the role of world affairs in the campaign, the ever approaching national party conventions, whom Trump will pick as his running-mate, or will Trump stay in Milwaukee or at his own Chicago hotel during the Milwaukee convention, but all of that seems secondary as we await what could be a seminal, and perhaps quite ugly, event in American history.

Lord help us all..