Connecticut U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

Connecticut U.S. Senate

98 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Safe Democrat

The contest in Connecticut is not likely to receive much attention this year. A Republican has not been elected to the Senate from the Nutmeg State since 1980. Early in the last decade, the party put up a wealthy, prominent businesswoman, but her Senate campaigns fell a good deal short.

 

The second of those defeats of WWE honcho Linda McMahon came in 2012, when Congressman Chris Murphy won a double digit victory. Six years earlier, Murphy won an upset over a longtime female Republican incumbent, as Connecticut moved closer politically to Massachusetts in its voting habits. In 2018, the incumbent won reelection by more than 20 points, over Matthew Corey, a pro-Trump Republican businessman and bar owner.

Six years later, Corey (no relation) is back for another Senate run, having also failed in other political campaigns. However, he is unlikely to win a primary two weeks from today against the endorsed candidate of the Connecticut Republican Party. It is true that in 2022, the party backed establishment choice was defeated in a primary, but that came after a late Donald Trump endorsement for the eventual primary winner. It is unlikely that Trump will involve himself in this race, this year.

The candidate Republicans have endorsed is Gerry Smith, an insurance agent, who serves as the elected First Selectman of the small town of Beacon Falls. If Mr. Smith were to go from Beacon Falls to Washington, it would really sound like a Frank Capra movie, but such a plot appears very unlikely. Smith, who has not openly embraced Trump. is considered a credible candidate, but still looks like a sacrificial lamb in this race. Smith's status as a black Republican perhaps makes him an appealing choice for party leaders looking to highlight diversity. However, a fundraising email reportedly went out under his name a few months back in which he rhetorically claimed that Democrats were "burning crosses in my front yard." If Smith really approved such a message, it was an extremely inappropriate decision.

Republicans will likely nominate a candidate who might come a bit closer than the 20 percent margin that Corey lost by against Senator Murphy in the last election, but it probably will not be a whole lot closer than that. Murphy, who has been very vocal on foreign policy issues, has already been talked about as a potential future Presidential candidate and he may harbor higher ambitions, if he thinks Democrats might ever again turn to a white guy from New England.

 

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

3 D  (2 Safe, 1 Tossup)

0 R

Total with predicted thus far:

31 Democrats (28 Holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Tossup)

38 Republicans (38 Holdover)