U.S. House Outlook- Volume 3

October 23, 2006
15 Days Until Election Day

Indiana

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

1. Peter Visclosky D (Kerry 55 %)- Safe D
2. Chris Chocola R (GWB 56 %)- Tossup (D)
3. Mark Souder R (GWB 68 %)- Safe R
4. Steve Buyer R (GWB 69 %)- Safe R
5. Dan Burton R (GWB 71 %)- Safe R
6. Mike Pence R (GWB 64 %)- Safe R
7. Julia Carson D (Kerry 58 %)- Leans D
8. John Hostettler R (GWB 62%)- Tossup (D)
9. Mike Sodrel R (GWB 59 %)- Tossup (R)

IN current: 2 D, 7 R
IN predicted: 4 D, 5 R

Current thus far: 72 D, 84 R
Predicted:
76 D (64 Safe, 3 Likely, 4 Leans, 5 Tossup)
80 R (60 Safe, 12 Likely, 4 Leans, 4 Tossup)
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Iowa

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

1. Open (Jim Nussle R)- (Kerry 53 %)- Leans D
2. Jim Leach R (Kerry 55 %)- Likely R
3. Leonard Boswell D (GWB 50%)- Leans D
4. Tom Latham R (GWB 51 %)- Safe R
5. Steve King R (GWB 60 %)- Safe R

IA current: 1 D, 4 R
IA predicted: 2 D, 3 R

Current thus far: 73 D, 88 R
Predicted:
78 D (64 Safe, 3 Likely, 6 Leans, 5 Tossup)
83 R (62 Safe, 13 Likely, 4 Leans, 4 Tossup)
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Kansas

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

1. Jerry Moran R (GWB 72 %)- Safe R
2. Jim Ryun R (GWB 59 %)- Likely R
3. Dennis Moore D (GWB 55 %)- Likely D
4. Todd Tiahrt R (GWB 64 %)- Safe R

KS current: 1 D, 3 R
KS predicted: 1 D, 3 R

Current thus far: 74 D, 91 R
Predicted:
79 D (64 Safe 4 Likely, 6 Leans, 5 Tossup)
86 R (64 Safe, 14 Likely, 4 Leans, 4 Tossup)
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Kentucky

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

1. Edward Whitfield R (GWB 63 %)- Safe R
2. Ron Lewis R (GWB 65 %)- Likely R
3. Anne Northup R (Kerry 51 %)- Leans R
4. Geoff Davis R (GWB 63 %)- Leans R
5. Harold Rogers R (GWB 61 %)- Safe R
6. Ben Chandler D (GWB 58 %)- Safe D

KY current: 1 D, 5 R
KY predicted: 1 D, 5 R

Current thus far: 75 D, 96 R
Predicted:
80 D (65 Safe, 4 Likely, 6 Leans, 5 Tossup)
91 R (66 Safe, 15 Likely, 6 Leans, 4 Tossup)
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Louisiana

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

1. Bobby Jindal R (GWB 70 %)- Safe R
2. William Jefferson D (Kerry 75 %)- Likely D
3. Charlie Melancon D (GWB 58 %)- Leans D
4. Jim McCrery R (GWB 59 %)- Safe R
5. Rodney Alexander R (GWB 62 %)- Safe R
6. Richard Baker R (GWB 59 %)- Safe R
7. Charles Boustany R (GWB 60 %)- Safe R

LA current: 2 D, 5 R
LA predicted: 2 D, 5 R

Current thus far: 77 D, 101 R
Predicted:
82 D (65 Safe, 5 Likely, 7 Leans, 5 Tossup)
96 R (71 Safe, 15 Likely, 6 Leans, 4 Tossup)
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Maine

2004 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

1. Tom Allen D (Kerry 55%)- Safe D
2. Michael Michaud D (Kerry 52 %)- Safe D

ME current; 2 D, 0 R
ME predicted: 2 D, 0 R

Current thus far: 79 D, 101 R
Predicted:
84 D (67 Safe, 5 Likely, 7 Leans, 5 Tossup)
96 R (71 Safe, 15 Likely, 6 Leans, 4 Tossup)