Nebraska U.S. Senate A- Race of the Day

 Nebraska U.S. Senate A

78 Days Until Election Day

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

Outlook: Likely Republican

It seems like every recent cycle has a state that has both Senate seats on the ballot. This year, it is Nebraska's turn, and first, we will look at the regularly scheduled election for the six year term of the seat currently held by Republican Deb Fischer. This is a pretty unique race on this year's Senate map. Based on the statewide politics of Nebraska, it should not really be competitive, and in fact, Democrats are not even formally fielding a candidate. This very well may not be remotely competitive, but some limited polling data has suggested otherwise.

In 2012, Fischer, a State Senator was the surprise primary winner over more well-known male Republican candidates, who had targeted each other. She then easily won the general election over a former Governor and U.S. Senator, in a sure sign that Nebraska had moved solidly to the GOP. In seeking reelection, Fischer received the same 58 percent vote total she had gotten in her first election. The Senator does not make many headlines on Capitol Hill, but has been a reliable vote for her party and has remained supportive of Donald Trump. After initially pledging she would serve no more than two terms, Fischer is now running for a third. In the May primary, she won with 80 percent against little known farmer Arron Kowalski. While that was of course a landslide victory, Fischer's showings in both of her reelection primaries show that there are some Republicans in her state who may not really know a lot about her and are voting for someone else.

Democrats do not seem to have any candidate capable of winning a statewide election in today's Nebraska. Interestingly enough, they opted not to run one in this particular race. Instead, it appeared they would get behind the Independent candidacy of industrial mechanic and labor leader Dan Osborn. Party leaders claimed that they had an arrangement with Osborn where they would not field a candidate and that he would effectively work with them in this election. Perhaps it is better to run in Nebraska as an I rather than a D. However, Osborn seemed to surprise the people that thought he was their ally by saying he would not seek the endorsement of the Nebraska Democrats but would instead run as a true independent. The head of the state party cried foul at this turn of events and suggested the party might back a write in candidate in the November election. It remains to be seen how serious they are. Doing such a thing would clearly only help reelect the Republican, but obviously Nebraska Democrats got played. The nominee of the Legalize Marijuana Now Party has withdrawn by this race, but a replacement could be named. That might be the one option left to smoke on for anti-Republicans who are pissed at Osborn.

Dan Osborn has a working class appeal and military background that might play to some Trump folks in the state. More so, I note that he has a name that is similar to that of Tom Osborne, the legendary Nebraska Cornhuskers football coach, who later went on to a Republican Congressional career in the state.Some voters might think the two are related or possibly even the same person. I will also note that Tom Osborne himself once lost a Gubernatorial primary to the incumbent and an unrelated Shane Osborn, who became State Treasurer, lost a 2014 Republican U.S. Senate primary.

On paper, a Republican incumbent should easily defeat an Independent in a one one one race in a very Republican state. I will be surprised if  that does not happen. However, the Osborn campaign recently released an internal poll showing both candidates tied at 42 percent. Some earlier polls, associated with Democrats, also showed a very close race, with a lot of undecideds. The Fischer campaign maintains they have numbers showing the incumbent with a sizeable lead.

If not for the polls done by Osborn and also previously by Democrats, I would have called this Safe Republican. It seems to me like Senator Fischer just does not have a large profile in the state and that leads to a lot of people telling pollsters they are undecided. However, when all is said and done, the R next to her name should deliver a double digit win.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

10 D  (6 Safe, 1 Likely,  2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 6 R   (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Total with predicted thus far:

38 Democrats (28 Holdover, 6 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

44 Republicans (38 Holdover, 2 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)