Saturday, November 05, 2016

Race for the White House Volume 97

3 Days Until Election Day

The Tragic Finale ... or Finally, It's About to be Over

Then again, a week from now, this could be a complete mess and the nation could be teetering on the edge of a crisis.

Anyways, what a week! Not in regards to politics. I pretty much changed the channel whenever discussion of the election has come up this week, but in terms of the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series! I am still in disbelief. This has been an amazing experience though and I hope it defines 2016 in my mind more so than this horrible election. In a few weeks, when I have some time, I intend to write an ode to the 2016 Chicago Cubs and try to give justice to what an incredible thrill their championship season has been and how it will literally never allow me to look at the world of sports the same again, after 32 years of fandom.

Today though, I have to deal with the election and some final Presidential predictions. I think I know who will win, but I have been confounded throughout this cycle. In a world where the Cubs can win the World Series, maybe anything is possible. Maybe this is the Apocalypse. In making these predictions, I probably will not do any revisions before Tuesday. In past cycles, I have gotten nearly every state correct but may just be wrong on a bunch this time. I really do not care. I am rooting against both major party nominees, but especially against Donald Trump, whom I consider to be the most toxic influence on our politics and our civic culture in my lifetime, and long before it.

I actually just got back from voting. It was something I was pretty much dreading, but as I waited in line, I was heartened to see scores of people wearing World Series Champion Chicago Cubs gear. I do not know how they voted but the Cubs can certainly bring us together and I just hope that America will somehow find a way to come together. I said "no thank you" when offered the "I Voted" sticker. I want to forget this election ever happened and just hope the next time I vote, the choices will be different.

Twenty years ago today, I had already voted absentee, but I watched in disappointment as my candidate lost in the first election I voted in. Since that 1996 election, I have never not voted for the Republican candidate for any office. Until today. There is no way in hell I could ever cast a vote for Donald Trump. If his Democrat opponent were remotely worthy of the Presidency, I would have probably voted for that opponent, but that is not true this cycle of Hillary Clinton, nor will it ever be. She will win my state handily, but not with my help. I wrote in Evan McMullin. I wonder if I will even remember his name if I became very elderly. Then, as I always do, I voted straight Republican. Almost nobody I voted for will win, but I still feel it was the right thing to do. I supported candidates who like me refuse to vote for Trump, to those who avoid the question, to those who probably support him openly. They will all have to live with their choice but I still will hold out hope that the Republican Party can be reformed into a principled, conservative party of opportunity and inclusion. If that hope is but a pipedream, and Democrats continue down the road they have been going for decades, I imagine I will be writing in more names in my voting future. For now, I hope the down-ballot damage to Republicans across the country is as minimal as possible.

There is so much speculation and spin surrounding this election on the media. Trump backers believe that their guy is close or even ahead and point to polls showing that possibility. I remain unconvinced he has any chance to win, but really, I cannot claim to be a political expert this year. The fact is though that Hillary Clinton is truly a horrific candidate for Democrats, and members of that party should be lamenting nominating her and even putting the risk of electing Trump on the table. (I do not think Bernie Sanders was electable either.) I think Clinton will beat Trump and I actually think it will be by about eight points, surprising the poll-watchers, but with her plethora of political and ethical problems, Trump is probably the only one she could ever beat for the Presidency. Conversely, she might wind up being the only one that Trump could ever possibly beat in a general election. The more one candidate is in the news over the other, the worse that candidate suffers politically. After the election, in theory at least, only the winner, is going to wind up being in the news. That's a pretty bad omen for either one of them. Whomever becomes President is going to be rightfully unpopular.

There's really not much else to say about this election. This was a golden opportunity for the Republican Party, and they blew it. Democrats, win or lose, are going to have some widening divisions themselves, but a Republican Civil War looks imminent too.

Politics in 2016 truly sucked but I can always look back with relief at the Chicago Cubs.

So, here are my Electoral Predictions. I think the national popular vote will wind up something like 50-42, which will be a surprise to many. Every vote cast for Hillary Clinton I will find wrong on an intellectual, policy, and ethical plane. Every vote cast for Donald Trump I will find wrong for all the same reasons, plus a far deeper moral one.

First the "Safe" states

AL- Trump
AR- Trump
CA- Clinton
CT- Clinton
DC- Clinton
DE- Clinton
IL- Clinton
HI- Clinton
KY- Trump
LA- Trump
MD- Clinton
MA- Clinton
MS- Trump
NE statewide Trump (plus Districts 1 and 3)
NJ- Clinton
NY- Clinton
ND- Trump
OK- Trump
OR- Clinton
RI- Clinton
SD- Trump
TN- Trump
VT- Clinton
WA- Clinton
WV- Trump
WY- Trump

182 Clinton, 73 Trump

Now adding the Likely states

ID- Trump
KS- Trump
ME -Clinton (plus District 1)
MN- Clinton
MO- Trump
MT- Trump
NM- Clinton

200 Clinton, 96 Trump

Adding Leans

AK- Trump
CO- Clinton
FL- Clinton
IN- Trump
ME 2- Clinton
MI- Clinton
NE 3- Trump
NV- Clinton
NH- Clinton
NC- Clinton
PA- Clinton
SC- Trump
TX- Trump
VA- Clinton
WI- Clinton

Clinton 323, Trump 158

Adding Tossups

AZ- Trump
GA- Trump
IA- Clinton
OH- Clinton
UT- Trump


Hillary Clinton & Tim Kaine 347
Donald Trump & Mike Pence 191

A few weeks ago, I would have had Clinton with a bunch more

America is in for a rough ride. I do not at all want Hillary Clinton to be President, which is why I could not vote for her, but her opponent is even worse. No doubt in my mind. Her Presidency will be the awful side-effect of the chemotherapy that will hopefully kill the political cancer of Donald Trump in the Republican Party and America itself. I just hope it works and that health will be restored for the 2020 election.

No matter who wins, I will pray for the country and that the President has the judgment (and in Trump's case the loyalty to America itself) to lead America to better times or at least not to destruction.

At least the next President will have, like me, grown up a Cubs' fan, unless that's something else she has lied about.