2024 Election Recap: U.S. Senate

Next, I will briefly look back at the historic and perhaps tragic 2024 election and my predictions for U.S. Senate.

 

There were just two races that I called incorrectly and that I had classified as Tossups. Both were won by Republicans, leading to a four seat pick-up for the party that is about to control the White House, Senate, and U.S. House. In spite of that, Democrats should recognize it could have been worse, and had Joe Biden stayed in the race, as he seems to wish he would have, it would have been worse. Democrats did manage to win races I had called Tossups in Michigan and Wisconsin as well as two contests that I had as Leans Democrat, but went down to the wire in Arizona and Nevada. With Biden at the top of the ticket, Donald Trump's party would have won those four races and all but assured at least a four year run controlling the Senate. Even as things stand now, I think there might not be much party turnover as it relates to the Senate in 2026.

 

As I always do, I will speak about the races that I predicted incorrectly.

 

Ohio-

 

Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown was always going to have to win a lot of ticket splitters to hold on in what has become a pretty red state and while he got many Trump voters to split their tickets, it was not enough. Eighteen years ago, Brown joined colleagues Jon Tester and Bob Casey in defeating Republican incumbents and leading to Democrats taking over the U.S. Senate. Brown and Casey won that year in landslides. Now, they are all gone, having lost bids for fourth terms.  

Now, former Senator Brown seems to be making some noise that he may attempt a quick comeback and seek Ohio's other Senate seat in 2026, which has just been vacated by JD Vance. Perhaps, the dynamics of a midterm election for a Republican Administration may work in his favor, but this would still be an uphill climb in the Buckeye State. It is very clear that Democrats have huge systemic problems in places like Ohio and the soon to be Republican Senator appointed by Governor Mike DeWine, will likely not have the political baggage that Bernie Moreno, the candidate who beat Brown in 2024 had.

Pennsylvania-

The Keystone State has not become as red as Ohio, and in many cases, may actually be very light blue, but the problems Democrats faced nationwide carried over enough in Pennsylvania to cost Bob Casey his seat as he went down to defeat by Republican Dave McCormick. Earlier on in the cycle, I thought this race would be Leans D, but it had become apparent in the final month that it was  Tossup and there were not a whole lot of ticket splitters as Trump defeated Kamala Harris by a narrow margin.

This Senate race was even closer, and as votes from the Philadelphia area continued to be counted, Casey refused to concede, even after it had probably become clear that there would not be enough to make up the difference. This was highly remarked upon as Republicans called hypocrisy on "accepting election results." Nonetheless, Casey eventually did concede. After a landslide win in 2006 and two fairly easy reelections, he probably did not see this result coming. Now, Democrats in Pennsylvania, such as senior Senator John Fetterman, who went down to Mar-A-Lago today, are going to have to learn how to survive in the age of Trump.

I feel like I have no choice but to bring up the theory that if Kamala Harris had chosen Josh Shapiro, the relatively popular Governor of Pennsylvania for her Vice Presidential running-mate, this Senate race probably would have tipped to Casey. Perhaps three or four other House races in Pennsylvania may have as well, leading to Democrats keeping control of that body. It might be too much to assume that Harris-Shapiro would have won the election nationally, but they probably would have at least taken Pennsylvania and saved this Senate seat for their party.

2024 U.S. Senate Results: 32-2 (94%)

Past Results:

 

2006: 31-2 (94%)
2008: 34-1 (97%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 28-5 (85%)
2014: 36-0 (100%)
2016: 31-3 (91%)

2018: 33-2 (94%) 

2020: 33-2 (94%) 

2022: 33-2 (94%)