Minnesota U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

Minnesota U.S. Senate

85 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (Midwest)

Outlook: Safe Democrat

A statewide race in Minnesota is not supposed to be classified as "Safe", and perhaps there could be a rationale in the future to change it to "Likely Democrat" before all is said and done. Right now though, this is an off the radar race, with a very messy situation for Republicans, ahead of tomorrow's primary.

It would be interesting to hear the true inner thoughts of Senator Amy Klobuchar these days as it relates to sudden rise of her state's DFL Governor Tim Walz to presumptive Vice Presidential nominee, and his growing status as a bit of a "rock star" in the party. Being eclipsed nationally by Walz is probably not something she had been expecting. Klobuchar was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2000 winning 58 percent of the vote and has since been reelected twice, never falling below 60 percent, as Republicans have taken a pass on any sort of serious challenge to her. In the 2020 cycle, Klobuchar embarked on a bid for President, in a crowded primary field, that featured a handful of her female Senate colleagues. 

The former prosecutor failed to gain much traction in her Presidential bid through 2019 but as the voting got closer, she started to impress people with her debate skills.and looked like she could emerge as a serious contender as the party looked for a candidate that could not be painted as so far to the left that they could be deemed un-electable, such as the narrative that began to surround Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Joe Biden's campaign was struggling and he looked politically dead in the water in the two earliest contest, as Klobuchar fought for positioning with Pete Buttigieg, in which she demonstrated fairly sharp elbows. While publicly, she usually comes across as "Minnesota nice", there have been stories that the Senator can be quite different, especially to staff, when cameras are not around. Klobuchar finished in third place in New Hampshire and may have been on the path to the nomination, if not for African-American South Carolina primary voters rescuing Biden. Soon, the party began to coalesce around the former Vice President and the Minnesota Senator endorsed him. Some thought she might make a great Vice Presidential running-mate for Biden, but it later became clear that Biden thought there would be more to gain by picking a woman of color, and thus Klobuchar was out of luck again. She also was not picked for a Cabinet slot, although it is unknown if she truly wanted one.

Now, Klobuchar is the second most famous Minnesota Democrat in office (possibly third behind Ilhan Omar), and has likely missed her best chance to ever be on a national ticket. She can content herself by gaining seniority in the Senate and should have little trouble this year. Tomorrow, she will easily defeat four other Democrats who range from unknown to perennial gadfly.

The real story will be on the Republican side of the primary ballot where there will be no fewer than eight names on the ballot, none of whom has ever been elected to any office. The contest will come down to a more establishment type Republican who finds himself in the position of hoping to beat a very controversial and unorthodox candidate who happens to have the official state party endorsement.

The establishment candidate is Joe Fraser, a banker, who served many years in the United States Navy. This Joe was not exactly politically "smokin'" though because in May, conservative convention goers delivered the party endorsement to Royce White, a 33 year old African-American MAGA champion and conspiracy theorist. White was a basketball star growing up in Minnesota who had some brushes with the law around the way. The 16th overall pick of the 2012 NBA Draft by the Houston Rockets, White did not make it to the NBA until a very brief stint with the Sacramento Kings in 2014, that was cut short due to some mental health issues and an apparent fear of flying. He played a total of three minutes in the NBA and never scored or put up any other statistic, outside of committing a bunch of fouls. With his NBA career over, White has played basketball at some lower levels, and also embarked on a mixed martial arts career, where he went 0-2. During his more recent sporting events, he has been known to write political messages on the side of his bald skull.

White also became more politically active and in 2020 attracted the attention of far-right figure Steve Bannon, during the aftermath of the George Floyd murder and protests in Minnesota. He fell short in a 2022 Congressional primary bid in the Minneapolis district and did not bother to vote for himself.  However, he must have impressed the right people at the Republican State Convention in 2024, who delivered him the party endorsement for U.S. Senate, winning easily on the first ballot. Perhaps, Trump fans like the narrative of an unconventional, heavily tattooed black candidate who speaks out against the Federal Reserve Board and has espoused other conspiracy theories popular with the online aspect of the alt-right. White also portrays himself as a devout Catholic while also being delinquent on child support payments. It appears that every former professional athlete Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in recent years has child support issues. Furthermore, White has ranted on his podcast about the "Jewish lobby" and once described himself in an online profile as an "anti-Semite", though he now rejects the label. He sounds like quite the candidate. In addition to Steve Bannon, White has been endorsed by Matt Gaetz, Kari Lake, and famous Minnesotan Mike "My Pillow" Lindell.. Even Donald Trump and presumably General Flynn have stayed away from this one.

I hope that semi-sanity will prevail tomorrow and Fraser will defeat this Royce White nutjob. The former is trying to push the electability issue to primary voters and there is probably little doubt that if White does emerge as the nominee, that many voters who might otherwise vote Republican, will stay home or vote for a third party candidate this fall. Others, of course will vote for Klobuchar. Fraser would be a better overall representative of the party, but if he wins the primary, the MAGA die-hards may not unite around him out of spite. In any event, both candidates have virtually no money to spend on this race and the national party will not be of any assistance. Thus, Klobuchar is looking pretty safe.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

10 D  (6 Safe, 1 Likely,  2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 2 R   (1 Safe, 1 Leans)

 

Total with predicted thus far:

38 Democrats (28 Holdover, 6 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

40 Republicans (1 Safe, 1 Leans, 38 Holdover)