Monday, October 08, 2012

U.S. House Predictions-Part VII

29 Days Until Election Day

Indiana-Maine

Indiana

1. Peter Visclosky D vs. Joel Phelps R (Obama 63%)- Safe D
2. Brendan Mullen D vs. Jackie Walorski R (Obama 50%)- Likely R
3. Kevin Boyd D vs. Marlin Stutzman R (McCain 56%)- Safe R
4. Tara Nelson D vs. Todd Rokita R (McCain 54%)- Safe R
5. Scott Reske D vs. Susan Brooks R (McCain 53%)- Likely R
6. Brad Bookout D vs. Luke Messer R (McCain 55%)- Likely R
7. Andre Carson D vs. Carlos May R (Obama 66%)- Safe D
8. Dave Crooks D vs. Larry Bucshon R (McCain 51%)- Leans R
9. Shelli Yoder D vs. Todd Young R (McCain 53%)- Likely R

IN current: 3 D, 6 R
IN predicted: 2 D, 7 R

Current total: 72 D, 84 R
Predicted:
74 D (47 Safe, 14 Likely, 11 Leans, 2 Tossup)
85 R (47 Safe, 20 Likely, 9 Leans, 9 Tossup)
___________________________________________________________________________

Iowa

1. Bruce Braley D vs. Ben Lange R (Obama 58%)- Likely D
2. Dave Loebsack D vs. John Archer R (Obama 57%)- Leans D
3. Leonard Boswell D vs. Tom Latham R (Obama 52%)- Tossup (R)
4. Christine Vilsack D vs. Steve King R (McCain 50%)- Tossup (R)

IA current: 3 D, 2 R
IA predicted: 2 D, 2 R

Current total: 75 D, 86 R
Predicted:
76 D (47 Safe, 15 Likely, 12 Leans, 2 Tossup)
87 R (47 Safe, 20 Likely, 9 Leans, 11 Tossup)
________________________________________________________________________________

Kansas

1. Tim Heulskamp R (McCain 67%)- Safe R
2. Tobias Schlingensiepen D vs. Lynn Jenkins R (McCain 53%)- Safe R
3. Kevin Yoder R (McCain 50%)- Safe R
4. Robert Tillman D vs. Mike Pompeo R (McCain 59%)- Safe R

KS current: 0 D, 4 R
KS predicted: 0 D, 4 R

Current total: 75 D, 90 R

Predicted:
76 D (47 Safe, 15 Likely, 12 Leans, 2 Tossup)
91 R (51 Safe, 20 Likely, 9 Leans, 11 Tossup)
____________________________________________________________________________

Kentucky

1. Charles Hatchett D vs. Ed Whitfield R (McCain 62%)- Safe R
2. David Williams D vs. Brett Guthrie R (McCain 61%)- Safe R
3. John Yarmuth D vs. Brooks Wicker R (Obama 56%)- Likely D
4. Bill Adkins D vs. Thomas Massie R (McCain 61%)- Likely R (both regular and special)
5. Ken Stepp D vs. Harold Rogers R (McCain 67%)- Safe R
6. Ben Chandler III D vs. Andy Barr R (McCain 54%)- Leans D

KY current: 2 D, 4 R
KY predicted: 2 D, 4 R

Current total: 77 D, 94 R

Predicted:
78 D (47 Safe, 16 Likely, 13 Leans, 2 Tossup)
95 R (54 Safe, 21 Likely, 9 Leans, 11 Tossup)
____________________________________________________________________________

Louisiana

1. Vinny Mendoza D vs. Gary King R vs. Steve Scalise R (McCain 73%)- Safe R/Safe Scalise
2. Cedric Richmond D vs. Gary Landrieu D vs. Josue Larose R vs. Dwayne Bailey R (Obama 73%)- Safe D/Likely Richmond
3. Ron Richard D vs. Bryan Barrilleaux R vs. Charles Boustany R vs. Jeff Landry R (McCain 64%)- Safe R/Leans Boustany
4. John Fleming R (McCain 59%)- Safe R
5. Rodney Alexander R (McCain 62%)- Safe R
6. Bill Cassidy R (McCain 67%)- Safe R

LA current: 1 D, 6 R
LA predicted: 1 D, 5 R

Current total: 78 D, 100 R
Predicted: 
79 D (48 Safe, 16 Likely, 13 Leans, 2 Tossup)
100 R (59 Safe, 21 Likely, 9 Leans, 11 Tossup)
_______________________________________________________________________________

Maine

1. Chellie Pingree D vs. Jon Courtney R (Obama 61%)- Likely D
2. Mike Michaud D vs. Kevin Raye R (Obama 55%)- Likely D

ME current: 2 D, 0 R
ME predicted: 2 D, 0 R

Current total: 80 D, 100 R
Predicted:
81 D (48 Safe, 18 Likely, 13 Leans, 2 Tossup
100 R (59 Safe, 21 Likely, 9 Leans, 11 Tossup)