Kansas U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 75 Days Until Election Day

Kansas U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican 

 

The last time a Democrat was elected to the U.S. Senate from Kansas, Herbert Hoover was President. These days, Donald Trump is said to be concerned about comparisons to that particular predecessor, but it looks like the current White House occupant's approval numbers are indeed quite low. If there is to be a result in this state not seen since 1932, it would indicate one of the biggest midterm tsunamis of all time. Polls are currently showing a truly competitive race, but for now at least, I will still be surprised if the unthinkable happens.

 

This is actually the third straight cycle this Senate seat has been looked at as competitive. In 2014, a longtime incumbent had lost his political luster at home and was facing an Independent opponent, who did not have the baggage of being on the ballot in Kansas as a Democrat. People thought they race might be close, and even as a Democrat flipped the Governorship that year, the Senate seat stayed Republican by a double digit. Six years later, the seat was open, Republicans had a crowded primary and Democrats nominated a woman who had recently been a moderate Republican. This was a nearly 12 point win for the party that always wins Kansas Senate election.

 

That is how Roger Marshall, a physician also known as "Doc" joined the Senate. In 2016, he had been elected to Congress from the "Big First" Congressional district, which seems to always promote its Member statewide to the Senate. Marshall had been considered a mainstream Republican during his House tenure, but since becoming a Senator, he has seemingly moved more towards the MAGA wing of the party and has been far more of a lightning rod than Kansas's Senators have typically been. He was a strong advocate of overturning the results of the 2020 Presidential election and espoused conspiracy theories related to the Covid pandemic. Last year, while holding a Town Hall meeting in rural Kansas, he was confronted with questions from angry voters about Trump Administration policies. Marshall then proceeded to cut the meeting short and abruptly walked out to surprised reactions and boos. Democrats vowed they would have the final say on Election Day, but Republicans nationally have tended to not be too concerned about what might happen in Kansas.

 

Not long ago, Marshall was on CNN and claimed that it would be acceptable for Iran to keep some weapons because other countries also have them. What exactly was he suggesting? That it would be ok for Iran to fire weapons against Israel and or the United States? Since then though, any sort of "deal" with Iran that Trump has touted over and over again continues to fall apart. The bottom line to all this is that Marshall is seen as someone who will defend or make excuses for Trump at any turn. In the primary on August 4, the Senator took 80 percent against an unknown opponent who claimed to have always been a Republican, but bragged about being a "RINO" and taking policy positions in opposition to what Marshall and Republicans have supported. If nothing else, it shows that there are at least some Kansas Republicans who might not be satisfied with the incumbent.

 

Democrats had a very crowded primary. Term limited Governor Laura Kelly was urged by some to run, but she took a pass. So did the state's lone Democrat in the U.S. House, Sharice Davids, even after she seemed to be considering the idea. All told, 11 candidates ran in the primary. A wealthy businesswoman took only six percent and finished in seventh place. A State Senator and former Congressional nominee only received a few hundred votes more.

 

The candidates who finished in double digits were an Afghan War veteran  and counterintelligence specialist named Noah Taylor who took about 14 percent and Christy Davis, a former USDA official for Kansas who finished second, also with 14 percent. The winner of the primary with 35 was a late surging candidate who got into the race relatively late but has a very interesting profile. 

The pastor of a large Methodist group of churches in the Kansas City area, the Reverend Adam Hamilton originally considered challenging Marshall as an Independent, but eventually decided to run as a Democrat. As some other states have nominated far left candidates for federal offices this year, enough Kansas Democrats felt comfortable picking a white pastor as their nominee. (A pastor of a large black church in Georgia has of course been elected as a Democrat in that swing state.) Hamilton (no relation apparently to the original Treasury Secretary and Broadway sensation) is someone who might have cross-party appeal. He has made a point of saying that he has been the pastor of many Republicans over the years and continues to do so and that he believes in the concept of people coming together over common principles. Such a thing is important in America,but a lot of people on both sides of the partisan divide these days have become more inclined to resist that spirit of unity.

Of course as he runs as a Democrat, it would be nearly impossible for Hamilton to depart on party orthodoxy on such issues as abortion and he has taken a pro-choice stance that likely differs from many of his parishioners and other Christians in the state. On the broad spectrum of issues though, he presents himself as "leading from the center." Needless to say, Marshall and his Republican allies nationwide will spend much time and money portraying Hamilton as a radical leftist or worst.

 

Since the primary, the buzz has been increasing that the Democrat might be just the kind of candidate who could win this year in Kansas and this race is getting more notice than the open Gubernatorial office which has been held for two terms by a relatively moderate Democrat. There has not been any real independent polling yet on this race but a couple of surveys by Democrat firms are showing a statistical tie between Marshall and Hamilton. Interestingly enough, no Republican internal polls have been released to confirm a larger lead for the incumbent. The usual issues of the economy, cost of living, and foreign policy are at play, but in a state that relies heavily on agricultural exports, the Trump tariffs also get extra attention.

 

This seat is in play because Democrats have nominated a strong, non-traditional candidate, who might be running even stronger if he were on the ballot as an Independent in a one on one race. It is also competitive because the Republican seems to be less of an appealing personality than would be optimal for someone seeking reelection. However, a streak of 94 years is a long time. This can all be revisited down the homestretch but the advantage has to point for now to anybody running for statewide federal office in Kansas as a Republican. 

 

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

5 D (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

6 R (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

39 D (34 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

37 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)