74 Days Until Election Day
Kentucky U.S Senate
Status: Republican Open
2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)
Outlook: Likely Republican
Mitch McConnell has served seven terms in the U.S. Senate rising to become one of the most influential Senate leaders in American history. Now, the Republican is not seeking to continue the career in Washington D.C. that began over 40 years ago. He is 83 years old and has been riddled with health issues over the past few years. I definitely have criticism of McConnell, especially over how he handled Donald Trump at some points over the past decade, but I cannot help but have enormous respect for what he accomplished in his life and in government. Anybody, even those who are Never Trump, who wanted conservative judges on the federal bench owes a lot to McConnell, even as I think recognize the complete hypocrisy he demonstrated in regards to Supreme Court nominations in Presidential years, depending on which party was in the White House.
The fact though that the left and MAGA both seem to hate McConnell means he has done something worthwhile in my view. Most of the story about him over the past several weeks has been his absence from the Senate after a severe medical incident in his home, He is said to be recovering back there currently, after spending many weeks hospitalized and frankly I think the whole thing has gotten too much coverage. McConnell is a back bench Senator at this point in his career. He is no longer the Republican Leader, and most importantly, he is not running for reelection. As long as he is alive (ridiculous conspiracy theories aside), he does not really owe anything to anyone. His staff is handling business and he does not hold an executive position or a decision making responsibility. Yes, he has missed votes, but the only people who really have a right to complain about that are the Republican Senators who needed his vote (assuming he would give it to him, as he has shown a bit more independence the past couple years. The main thing though is that McConnell is not seeking another term. He literally has months left in the job. If he were running again, of course it would be absurd, considering his health, but he is not. The Senator has never been one to rush to show his face to cameras. He has always preferred to work behind the scenes. Yes, his constituents deserve to know basic information. He is an old man, who deals with the aftermath of having polio as a child which led to lifelong mobility issues, McConnell is a proud person and it is probably extremely difficult for him to face his current physical reality and the end of his long career. Clearly, he does not want to dwell on these matters publicly. Let him be.
Of course, this election is about the future and who will be Kentucky's new Senator. Democrats, who love to pile on McConnell, will likely find more at fault with the voting record of his replacement than with the outgoing Senator. Despite having a Democrat as Governor (who with his own 2028 ambitions has been trying to involve himself in the issue of McConnell's absence), Kentucky is a very Republican state and barring an earthquake of tremendous political magnitude, will send another one to the Senate next year.
All sorts of Republican candidates were on the May primary ballot including some guy named George Washington. There were really three major candidates though. All of them had ties to McConnell and were even proteges of him in some cases, but all rejected that association as the Senator is quite unpopular in MAGA circles because Trump hates him. For a while, it looked possible that the outsider campaign of businessman Nate Morris could break through. A former McConnell fundraiser, Morris ran as a very MAGA candidate who had many negative things to say about the current Senator. He also seemed to appeal to the fans of Rand Paul, Kentucky's other Senator, whom Morris also had supported, including for President. Adding to his wealth is his marriage to a member of the Mosbacher family, of establishment Republican days of lore. Many figures on the political right endorsed Morris, but Donald Trump went with a different candidate. There was somewhat of a fear that if Morris had been nominated, the seat would be less certain. Trump apparently worked out an agreement in which Morris withdrew from the race and endorsed Trump's choice for the seat, while being publicly mentioned as someone who was soon to receive a federal appointment. Morris has since been nominated to be Ambassador to Colombia. In pre-Trump days since a naked political quid pro quo in which a person was promised a government job in exchange for exiting a political race would be seen as highly illegal, but under this Administration, it seems like anything goes. Ironically enough, the Trump White House may now also want Morris to challenge Rand Paul in a 2028 Senate primary.
His exit left two major candidates, not long before the primary. The Trump endorsement went to Congressman Andy Barr who in 2012 defeated a Democrat incumbent in a battleground race, and avenged a loss for that seat two years earlier. In 2018, Barr won a competitive reelection by three points against Democrat Amy McGrath, but has won with ease in all other cycles. During his time in the House, Barr's wife passed away suddenly at age 39 due to a heart issue. About three years later, the Congressman remarried. (Trump has raised concerns about widowed Republicans getting remarried quickly as it relates to others, including a different Kentucky Congressman, but of course has had no issue with Barr. Seen as a mainstream Republican at one point, Barr inched closer to Trump as he harbored statewide ambitions, and with the endorsement, it seemed to pay off.
First though, Barr had to get past Daniel Cameron, who had served one term as Kentucky's Attorney General, before losing as the Republican Gubernatorial nominee in 2023. In that year's primary, Cameron ran with Trump's endorsement, but his loss in Kentucky to a Democrat, after Trump had campaigned for him in the general election, likely soured that relationship. Cameron is a genuine McConnell political protege who worked for the Senator and was seen perhaps as the person he would have liked to see succeed him one day. As a prominent black conservative, Cameron was heavily featured at the 2020 Republican National Convention. It was probably not a great idea though to try to launch a political comeback so soon after losing the race for Governor. Without Trump's support, he found it difficult to make much headway and Barr won the primary 61-31. Cameron has now suffered two major political defeats by the age of 40.
With a relatively standard issue Republican like Barr as the nominee, and with their strongest possible candidate Governor Andy Beshear thinking about a Presidential run and not willing to try a Senate bid, Democrats did not really have much of a chance of flipping this seat, but their primary result definitely would not help matters. Other Kentucky Democrats decided to sit it out to focus on next year's race for Governor. Several Democrats did run though including an African-American female State Representative who finished a very distant third with just six percent of the vote.
The primary was a battle between two past Senate nominees. The winner, by a somewhat surprising 47-36 margin was Charles Booker, a now 41 year old former State Representative. The African-American Democrat from Louisville first ran for the Senate in 2020, shortly before the end of his brief two year term in Frankfort. In that primary, he lost 45-43 to Amy McGrath, whom we have already mentioned, and will get to again in a moment. Two years later, Booker easily won the party's nomination for the right to take on Rand Paul for the Senate. The Republican won 62-38. Booker ran again in the 2026 cycle despite clear evidence that he is probably too far to the left to be competitive in a general election.
Booker was acceptable enough though to Kentucky's primary voters in his party this year as he avenged his loss to McGrath six years earlier for the same seat. After her competitive 2018 House defeat to Barr, McGrath, the first female Marine to fly a combat mission took on McConnell in a race that many thought could be interesting. She definitely had a strong biography as a fighter pilot and and she stressed political moderation. Despite McConnell's overall low job approval numbers, the Senate Majority Leader defeated McGrath by 20 points, showing just how thoroughly Republican Kentucky really was, especially in federal races.
In an open seat race in a midterm election that could be bad for Republicans, the well-funded McGrath might have at least made some noise, theoretically the most against a divisive first time candidate like Nate Morris, back when it seemed he could win a Republican primary. Kentucky Democrats though, now largely dominated less by rural folks, and more by African-Americans and urban liberals in Louisville went with Booker this time. After three losses, this one in a primary, McGrath is probably done with politics for a while, and after a third loss this year, Booker might be also, (along with Republican Daniel Cameron.) In all this talk about people who have lost Kentucky elections, it is worth nothing that McConnell will be retiring undefeated.
Booker is too far to the left to have any sort of realistic chance of beating Barr, but there has not been any polling yet that I can find leading me to cautiously classify this as Likely Republican instead of "Safe." If nothing else, when the returns come in on Election Night, from Kentucky, the first state to report that will have a statewide federal election, we could look at the margins in some counties and get a hint of what the evening might have in store nationally.
Senate races predicted thus far:
5 D (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)
7 R (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)
Senate total predicted thus far:
39 D (34 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)
38 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)
