Tennessee U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

30 Days Until Election Day

Tennessee U.S. Senate

Status: Republican Incumbent 

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Safe Republican

 

Republicans are playing defense in all sorts of states this year that are electing Senators. Tennessee does not seem to be one of them.

 

Most of the early drama was if first term Senator Bill Hagerty would seek reelection. A one time establishment Republican from the business world who used to have a close relationship with Mitt Romney, he would join him in the Senate Republican Conference but only after sharply shifting away from his former friend and becoming a staunch ally and supporter of Donald Trump, under who he had served as Ambassador to Japan. Hagerty gave some consideration to running for Governor, with many believing he was not exactly loving life in the Senate, but he deferred to his senior Senator colleague Marsha Blackburn and launched a race for a second term. Hagerty was unopposed in the August Republican primary. Apparently, there was just one write in vote counted against him.

 

Now, the Senator faces a rematch with the Democrat he defeated to take his seat six years ago. That year, he defeated Marquita Bradshaw 62-35. An environmental activist from Memphis and considered tn the left wing of her party, she won a plurality of the vote among Democrats in 2020 and became the first African-American woman nominated statewide in Tennessee. In 2024, Bradshaw ran for the Senate again, but lost in a primary 70-22 against a more well-known white female State Representative. Running for the third straight Senate election in the Volunteer State, Bradshaw took 55 percent this time against four little known primary opponents. A former state party official, who is a white woman took 18 percent and an African-American male pastor won 10 percent. 

 

As is common in Tennessee, a bunch of Independent candidates are also on the ballot but they do not seem to have generated much if any attention, as far as I can tell. This race should probably conclude with just about the same margin as the Hagerty vs. Bradshaw contest of 2020 did. There may be a lot of motivation this midterm cycle on the part of Democrats and others to vote against allies of Donald Trump. but even that will not nearly be enough to help a very liberal candidate running a conservative state.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

14 D (7 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

17 R (4 Safe, 4 Likely, 6 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

48 D (34 holdover, 7 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

48 R (31 holdover, 4 Safe, 4 Likely, 6 Leans, 3 Tossup)