Colorado U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 91 Days Until Election Day

 

Colorado U.S. Senate

 

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

 

Outlook: Safe Democrat

 

This year, Colorado primary voters went hard left in one party's primaries and hard right in another's. The two nominees for U.S. Senate are not seen as out of the mainstream, but the polarization of the state's politics, mirroring much of what is going on in the nation, tells part of the story of a fairly uncompetitive race. Colorado used to be a true battleground, now despite some pockets of conservatism, it is very reliable statewide for Democrats.

 

Incumbent Democrat John Hickenlooper is seeking a second term. He used to be a bigger political deal than he is now. The brewpub entrepreneur went from Mayor of Denver to Governor of Colorado, where he served two terms. After he left office, he sought his party's nomination for President in 2020. Without being considered a candidate on the left  and blocked out by others considered more pragmatic, such as Joe Biden, there was not really any opportunity for Hickenlooper in that race. Ironically enough, neither was there for Michael Bennet, his one time Mayoral Chief of Staff, who also ran for President that year. In 2009, Colorado's then Governor picked Bennet, who had moved on to another post by then, over Hickenlooper to fill an open U.S. Senate seat, which surprised many. Hickenlooper went on to his tenure as Governor and then when his Presidential campaign ended, was recruited to run for the U.S. Senate. He had turned down a previous push to run in Colorado that year but eventually gave in, and managed to defeat an incumbent Republican by nearly 10 points.

 

It seems like Hickenlooper does not go out of his way to get much media coverage nationally, A few years back, the now 72 year old Senator and his second wife welcomed a baby via surrogacy. Initially, many probably doubted that he would run for reelection but he announced he would and few thought he would have too much difficulty. This June, Hickenlooper's Senate colleague, Michael Bennet was upset solidly in a primary for Governor, while Hickenlooper won re-nomination, but not by anywhere near the margin he might have been expected to.

 

The energy among Democrats in Colorado this primary season was on the left and Hickenlooper felt the effect. The incumbent held off State Senator Julie Gonzales by a margin of 53-47. A 43 year old Latina, who was born on an Indian reservation in Arizona, she had been the winner of a state party convention vote while Hickenlooper petitioned his way onto the ballot. A member of the Democratic Socialists of America, Gonzales ran to her opponent's left and tagged herself as an "insurgent progressive." She attacked Hickenlooper for having voted to confirm any of Donald Trump's Cabinet nominees and for refusing to debate her. Clearly, Colorado Democrats were far from satisfied with both of their U.S. Senators, although the value of incumbency was enough to deliver the win to Hickenlooper. Gonzales conceded the primary election, but does not appear to have formally endorsed the Senator.

 

With all these divisions among Colorado Democrats, it might appear that Republicans could have a chance of victory. In theory they should, and if they were running against the socialist Gonzales they might, but the reality is that they do not have a candidate who is going to pose big of a threat. If there is some polling data down the road, I suppose I could move this race to Likely Democrat, but for now, Hickenlooper has a massive financial and organizational advantage over his Republican opponent.

 

State Senator Mark Baisley,who started off the cycle running for Governor, sensed a better opportunity and got into the Senate race instead. With a background as a software engineer, he was first elected to the Colorado House in 2018 and the Colorado Senate in 2022. At the state party gathering, Baisley was the only candidate to receive over 30 percent of the vote and advanced to the primary ballot where he would be uncontested. 

 

Colorado progressives may have voted in strong numbers against Hickenlooper, once considered somewhat of a hero of the left in Denver, but in a general election, they will likely agree to support him against a Donald Trump aligned Republican. Hickenlooper will return to the upper chamber but find himself still the junior Senator to his old employee Michael Bennet

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

2 D (1 Safe, 1 Tossup), 2 R (2 Safe)

Senate total predicted thus far:

36 D (34 holdover, 1 Safe, 1 Tossup) 33 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe)