Oregon U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

40 Days Until Election Day

 

Oregon U.S. Senate

 

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

 

Outlook: Safe Democrat

 

Any competitiveness that might exist in Oregon's Gubernatorial contest is not expected to carryover to the Senate. This particular Senate race will be one of the least covered in the country on Election Night. One can hardly blame the Republican challenger for trying to focus on state issues rather than federal ones during this midterm election in a blue state.

 

In 2008, Democrat Jeff Merkley unseated moderate Republican Gordon Smith to win election to the U.S. Senate. Six years later, he seemed to be in a competitive race against a physician during a much better cycle for Republicans. Issues surrounding that candidate's personal life though, back when voters seemed to care more about those things, cost her campaign and Merkely was reelected by a large margin. Six years later, Merkely won by nearly the same margin against another female candidate, who was known as a supporter of the QAnon conspiracy theory. Clearly, Oregon has voters who will vote for a Republican no matter whom it is, but just not nearly enough to win statewide.

 

The incumbent, who hopes to take over as Senate Budget Committee Chairman is a pretty left-wing lawmaker who does not seem to do a lot of national media. Merkely seems content with a long career in the Senate and no longer harbors any Presidential ambition, as some used to think. In the May primary, he took 93 percent.

 

Republicans had a seven way primary which might not have been that high-profile, even in the state. Four candidates received double digits. Whatever exists of the Republican establishment in Oregon managed to at least not nominate a particular candidate they did not want to have to deal with again. Jo Rae Perkins, the former Chair of the Linn County Republican Party, has run for office several times and is the QAnon lady who lost to Merkley in 2020 when she received 39 percent of the vote. She was also the Republican nominee against Oregon's other Senate in 2022, when after winning a primary narrowly, she took 41 percent in November. There would be no three-peat of general election failure for Perkins this year though. She lost the primary 30-27 to State Senator David Brock Smith. Commercial real estate broker Brent Barker was third with 23 percent.

 

With a background in the restaurant business and having held local office, Smith, no apparent relation to the former Senator whom Merkely defeated, is a more credible nominee for his party. Still, he is going to be vastly overspent and likely ignored by the incumbent. He can expect to get around 39 percent of the vote, but not much more than that.

 

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

13 D (6 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

14 R (3 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

47 D (34 holdover, 6 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

45 R (31 holdover, 3 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)