Georgia U.S. Senate- Race of the Day
These days, most states are solidly blue or red and candidates of just one party win the big races. Over the past decade though, Georgia has continued to elect Republican Governors while alternating between the parties in the Presidential vote, mirroring the national result. Republicans should have the edge in the Senate elections, but Democrats currently hold both seats and have won three straight elections. This year, it looks like Jon Ossoff is a favorite to make it four in a row for his party, and then he will be a person of even great speculation in regards to 2028.
Ossoff grew up in an upscale suburb of Atlanta, a growing political demographic that is making the state more favorable to Democrats just like it once made it more favorable to Republicans a couple of generations ago. Long active in politics and a documentary filmmaker, he ran for Congress in a special election in 2017 at age 30. Ossoff lost the expensive race by four points, but came much closer in the district that a Democrat had been expected to. He was noted for how much he seemed to have studied the cadence and hand gestures of Barack Obama.
Passing on another try for the U.S. House, Ossoff set his sights on the Senate in 2020. With significant establishment support, including from many African-Americans, he easily captured his party's nomination against several opponents. Then, he went up against incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue in a race he started off as an underdog. Ossoff hammered his opponent on ethical issues and that race along with a special Senate election taking place at the same time both became quite nasty and competitive. In November, Perdue finished first by just under two percent over Ossoff, but with the Libertarian nominee taking two percent, the race went to a January 5, 2021 runoff. The special election for the other seat also went to a runoff. With Joe Biden having defeated Donald Trump at this point, and with control of the U.S. Senate at stake, it looked like Republicans would follow past precedent and win these seats for the incumbents. However, Donald Trump spent the time in between howling about his loss in Georgia and claiming fraud, and according to many greatly depressing the Republican runoff vote. Both seats flipped to blue, with the Senate switching along with it. Ossoff beat Perdue 51-49 and immediately became Georgia's senior Senator.
Many viewed Ossoff and his colleague Raphael Warnock as somewhat of political flukes, but Warnock won reelection in 2022 in a runoff over a poor Republican candidate who had been backed by Trump. Ossoff has spent most of his time in the Senate avoiding a lot of national interviews, (in contrast to Warnock) but has lately increased his visibility. While he is currently in the middle of a competitive race for another six year term, many are talking about Ossoff as a potential 2028 Presidential candidate. He is telegenic and a strong communicator to be certain. There will be ample time to talk about the 2028 Presidential race, but in this context, I just wonder how Ossoff will be able to compete at the same time as Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who is also up for reelection this year, and seems pretty obvious to run for President. If Ossoff were to run, it is hard to see how he and Shapiro (another politician who often mimics Obama) could do anything but hurt each other's chances. For one thing, both candidates are Jewish (and there are also going to be two Jewish Chicagoans running for President as Democrats) and that is of itself an "issue" for many on the left. Some claim that Ossoff does not come across as explicitly Jewish as Shapiro, and many may not even know that he is. He has tried to take a middle ground stance on Israel in recent months, but if he were to become a national candidate, Ossoff will certainly have to take a more defined stance on that relationship. I happen to think that in theory Shapiro and Ossoff would make a strong national ticket, but there is zero chance of that happening. You can even forget that both are Jewish-Americans which of course makes the possibility completely impossible. Both are white males. That is not going to happen for Democrats in 2028.
In any event, Ossoff did not face a primary challenge this year. Republicans once again nominated a Donald Trump endorsed candidate who is probably far from the most electable in the state. The recent history in Georgia is that Trump endorsed candidates win Senate nominations while losing general elections, while Trump endorsed candidates have lost primaries for Governor, including this year.
Many national Republicans wanted term limited Governor Brian Kemp, who had shown independence from Trump after the 2020 election to run for Senate. Had he done so, he might be in a very strong position. Kemp would not run though, setting up a scramble among others in his party. Like the case for the open Gubernatorial race, controversial Congresswoman (at the time) Marjorie Taylor Greene also did not run. Trump claims that she clamored him to support her in a statewide bid and he told her she could not win. That may or may actually be true, but the two former allies definitely had a major falling out. John King, Georgia's Insurance Commissioner got in the race and then quickly got out to seek reelection after it became clear that he had little path to the nomination and Kemp wanted someone else.
The candidate Kemp wound up supporting was Derek Dooley a former college football coach and first time candidate. That sort of thing worked in Alabama but it was a different situation in Georgia. Dooley was a Georgia native and is the son of the late Vince Dooley, who was a very beloved coach of the Georgia Bulldogs. The candidate's mother was also a well-known radio host, but Dooley never seemed to click in the Senate race, even as he tried to appeal to the MAGA crowd.
Also running was Congressman Buddy Carter, a one-time establishment Republican from South Georgia who was first elected in 2014. In this race, he called himself a "MAGA Warrior" and tried to present himself as an unyielding ally of Trump. The guy in the White House though preferred Congressman Mike Collins, who joined the House after the 2022 election. The trucking executive is the son of the late Congressman Mac Collins who won in 1992 as Republicans started to make major gains in Georgia, but then lost a 2004 Senate primary and a 2006 U.S. House comeback attempt.
Unlike his colleague Carter, it is hard to argue that Mike Collins was not truly MAGA. He was well known for trolling (some would say humorous) posts on social media defending Trump and taking on liberals. He also faced an Ethics inquiry in the House, which some say is a positive thing these days among Republican primary voters. In May, Collins took 41 percent while Dooley was second with 30 percent, probably winning the lion's share of any Trump skeptic voters in the party. Carter took 25 percent. I noted at the time that on the Sunday before the primary, Carter was in Washington D.C. doing a Sunday morning panel on CNN (which he did poorly on) instead of campaigning at home. I think he was probably resolved to defeat by that point. Collins took the June runoff by 11 points which was hardly a surprise, but perhaps not an overwhelming show of force for a candidate who had Trump's endorsement.
The very well funded Ossoff took off against Collins for this general election with rhetorical guns blazing. He called his opponent a nepo baby, a racist, and an anti-Semite. There is certainly some examples from the Congressman's social media posts to back up the racist assertions. Furthermore, some recent revelations have shown the Collins' son in law, who was featured prominently in campaign photos, and who has worked as part of his father in law's business, is a social media influencer with well documented white supremacist views and clear antisemitic sentiments. Collins has denied he is a bigot but clearly is sensitive about these questions regarding his son-in law. Of course, candidates are not responsible for the beliefs of all their family members, but Collins seemed to have close business and personal ties to this individual and it is hard to claim he did not know how his son in law felt about Jews and other minorities. If the political shoe were on the other foot, Republicans definitely would be making these same sort of issue about a Democrat's son in law.
Georgia is a southern state with many conservatives. This race was never going to be a blowout. I do not expect the need for a runoff though (which would take place on December 1) even with the presence of a frequent Libertarian Party nominee. Ossoff seems to have an edge in this race according to the polls and has a massive financial advantage.
Herschel Walker was a poor nominee for the Senate in Georgia four years ago and Collins is a poor nominee this year. He comes across as very much a southern "Bubba" type which will play well in some parts of the state but less so with urban and suburban voters, especially African-Americans and Latinos. While Ossoff would still have an edge, I believe Dooley or even Carter would have been stronger general election candidates. Trump allegedly told MTG (accurately) that she could not win a Senate race in Georgia. Why though would he think Mike Collins can?
I think Ossoff will win this contest in the high single digits, further cementing his political resume. He will then be asked on a daily basis about 2028 and the allure of a run might be hard to resist. Perhaps he should though. After all, he only turns 40 next year.
posted by Corey @ Tuesday, August 11, 2026
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