Idaho U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 81 Days Until Election Day

Idaho U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

 

Outlook: Likely Republican

 

Idaho voters this November will chose between a Republican, a Libertarian, and two Independents in the contest for U.S. Senate. There was supposed to be a Democrat, but that candidate recently dropped out. That was by design though and now if there was ever an opportunity for Democrats to effectively pick up a U.S. Senate seat in ruby red Idaho, this would be it. Will it happen though? Yeah, probably not. Still, with the top challenger having an I next to their name, instead of a D, this cannot exactly be classified as a "Safe R" race.

 

Of course, Idaho has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1974, when a nationally prominent incumbent won a fourth term during the Watergate election. For many years now, a Democrat has been unable to win any sort of statewide election in Idaho. In a May primary, Democrats chose realtor David Roth to represent the party with 62 percent of the vote and a finish over 30 points ahead of his nearest competitor. Roth had run for office several times. In 2022 he took 29 percent as the nominee for the other U.S. Senate seat in the state, as the first openly gay statewide candidate in Idaho history. Two years later, he took 31 percent as the Democrats' nominee for one of the two Congressional districts. Needless to say, Roth was not expected to do very well in this Senate race and last month he ended his campaign, without explicitly endorsing anyone else. Idaho Democrats are not going to replace him. After all, they think that their best bet is to support a former member of their party who is running as an Independent. This tactic is being done in a couple of other red states in Senate contests this year and was also supposed to be done in neighboring Montana. However there, the Democrat refused to drop out.

 

Todd Achilles is a retired Army officer who went on to a career in business. Once a Republican, he changed his party affiliation to Democrat under somewhat specious and was appointed to the state legislature by the Republican Governor to fill a vacancy of a Democrat. He did win election to the seat not long after as a Democrat in 2024 but a few months later, announced he was now an independent and said that both parties were "fundamentally broken" (no argument from me there.) Achilles then proceeded to resign from the legislature to run for the U.S. Senate as an Independent. So now, he is the de facto nominee of a party he publicly left and may never have really been a member of to begin with. Of course being an actual Democrat is not a politically helpful thing in Idaho.

 

In this year of 2026, does incumbent Republican Jim Risch have an "Achilles Heel" problem? He probably would have been happier to face the sacrificial lamb Roth or at least have the Democrat remain on the ballot if nothing else. Risch is running for a six year term at 83 years old which raises a lot more eyebrows in this era than it might have in the past. While the Senator seems to be in good health and is respected on Capitol Hill for his intelligence and usual willingness to work across the aisle, he is a career politician in a year and indeed an era where the public seems to be very angry at the status quo.

 

Risch first became a member of the State Senate way back in 1974 and quickly became a leader in the chamber. He shockingly lost to a Democrat for reelection in 1988 and also fell short in a 1994 primary comeback attempt. He was appointed to the Senate though and began a second stint in 1996 where he joined the leadership again. He went on to twice be elected Lt. Governor and served in that office wrapped around several months where he had been elevated to the Governorship.  Risch was elected to an open U.S. Senate seat in 2008 and has been reelected twice without much of a problem in either primaries or general elections. Now, the Senator is seeking a fourth term which would keep in in Washington D.C. until he is close to age 90. In this most recent primary, Risch took two thirds of the vote against three opponents, whom I assume ran to his right.

 
The Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee has not done much to anger Idahoans but in an election where Democrats in every state are expected to be highly motivated to vote, he likely faces his toughest statewide race yet. Achilles is running as a moderate option (and a candidate for Idaho Governor is doing the same as an Independent although a Democrats has remained in that race) and many voters who would not be willing to vote for anyone who shares a partisan affiliation with some high-profile national Democrats just might be willing to vote for someone who can claim to be an Independent.

 

That is far more likely to work this year in Nebraska or still even in Montana though this year than in Idaho. If Republicans are headed for a total wipeout, this race will look competitive in October but for now, Risch still has a major edge.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

4 D (2 Safe, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 4 R (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans)

Senate total predicted thus far:

38 D (34 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup) 35 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans)