Friday, October 20, 2006

U.S. Senate Race Recaps and Updated Classifications

October 20, 2006
18 Days Until Election Day

Race of the Day recap:

AZ- Likely R
CA- Safe D
CT- Likely D
DE- Safe D
FL- Likely D
HI- Safe D
IN- Safe R
ME- Safe R
MD- Tossup (D)
MA- Safe D
MI- Leans D
MN- Tossup (D)
MS- Safe R
MO- Leans R
MT- Tossup (R)
NE- Likely D
NV- Likely R
NJ- Tossup (D)
NM- Safe D
NY- Safe D
ND- Likely D
OH- Leans R
PA- Tossup (D)
RI- Tossup (R)
TN- Leans R
TX- Safe R
UT- Safe R
VT- Likely D
VA- Leans R
WA- Leans D
WV- Likely D
WI- Safe D
WY- Safe R

A couple quick notes before I offer the updates:

- My classification of CT as Likely D should not be interpreted as leaving the open for a slight possibility of victory by the Republican nominee, but rather as a recognition that because of the unique circumstances of the race, the eventual winner is likely to be a Democrat who possibly, but unlikely, could choose to not caucus with the Democrats in 2007 and beyond. As for the election horse race itself, I classify it as Likely Lieberman.

-My classification of VT as Likely D is in recognition of the fact that a likely winner, although on the ballot as an Independent, would caucus with Democrats in the U.S. Senate.

These original results would cause a result of Democrats holding 46 seats (27 Holdovers, 7 Safe, 6 Likely, 2 Leans, 4 Tossups) in the U.S. Senate while Republicans would hold 54 seats (40 Holdovers, 6 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossups) If that would have held up, Democrats would have netted a total pickup of 1 seat.

Now, the updates:

MN- Tossup (D) to Leans D
MO- Leans R to Tossup (R)
MT- Tossup (R) to Tossup (D)
OH- Leans R to Tossup (R)
PA- Tossup (D) to Leans D

Now, I see a result of 47 Democrat U.S. Senate seats (27 Holdovers, 7 Safe, 6 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossups) and 53 Republican seats (40 Holdovers, 6 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans, 3 Tossups)

Under these revisions, the Democrats would stand to pick up 1 more seat for a net gain of 2.

Like the Gubernatorial races, it is hard to see how the GOP is currently favored to pick up any Senate seat now held by the opposition party. Such a factor would be fairly unprecedented in modern politics, only duplicated to the best of my memory by the Republicans in 1994.

Nonethess, if Democrats are to win a majority in the Senate, which would require 51 seats, to offset Republican Vice President Dick Cheney of Wyoming, holding the tie-breaking vote, they will seemingly need to win all 3 tossups that I am currently giving to them, in addition to winning all three tossups I forecast going Republican, and also win in either Tennessee or Virginia, in races I am callings Leans Republican.

Final list of predicted winners to be posted on the weekend or Monday before Election Day.

Governor Race Recaps and Updated Classifications

October 20, 2006
18 Days Until Election Day

First, let me review how I originally called all the Governor Races of the Day and after that, I will list the changes I now find prudent to make. Final predictions for the winners only in all these races will be posted on the weekend or Monday before the election.

AL- Likely R
AK- Tossup (R)
AZ- Likely D
AR- Tossup (D)
CA- Leans R
CO- Tossup (R)
CT- Safe R
FL- Leans R
GA- Likely R
HI- Likely R
ID- Safe R
IL- Tossup (R)
IA- Tossup (R)
KS- Likely D
ME- Tossup (D)
MD- Tossup (R)
MA- Leans D
MI- Tossup (R)
MN- Leans R
NE- Safe R
NV- Leans R
NH- Likely D
NM- Likely D
NY- Safe D
OH- Leans D
OK- Likely D
OR- Leans D
PA- Leans D
RI- Leans R
SC- Likely R
SD- Safe R
TN- Likely D
TX- Likely R
VT-Likely R
WI- Tossup (D)
WY- Safe D

So, based on those results, I would have a conclusion of the Democrats having 23 Governors in 2007 (8 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 6, Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup) and Republicans holding 27 Governors (6 Holdovers, 4 Safe, 6 Likely, 5 Leans, 6 Tossup). This would result in a net pickup for the Democrats of 1 Governorship.

As a Republican, I would have been very happy with that result, but as I began composing the above listings in late July and concluded this week, I have several changes that I feel necessary to make, indicating that both parties have improved their prospects in some races, and in some cases, who I think will win has also changed.

Here are the changes-

AK- Tossup (R) is now Leans R
AR- Tossup (D) is now Leans D
CA- Leans R is now Likely R
CO- Tossup (R) is now Leans D
FL- Leans R is now Likely R
HI- Likely R is now Safe R
IL - Tossup (R) is now Leans D (this one is tough for me to do. I still think the race is extremely fluid but I have become a little more pessimistic about the result in my state. I very much hope to be wrong on several races, especially this one)
IA- Tosusp (R) is now Tossup (D)
ME- Tossup (D) is now Leans D
MI- Tossup (R) is now Tossup (D)
MN- Leans R is now Tossup (R)
NH- Likely D is now Safe D
NM- Likely D is now Safe D
OH- Leans D is now Likely D
OR- Leans D is now Tossup (D)
PA- Leans D is now Likely D
TN- Likely D is now Safe D

Based on these updates, my totals now flip to 27 Democrats (8 Holdovers, 5 Safe, 5 Likely, 5 Leans, 4 Tossups) and 23 Republicans (6 Holdovers, 5 Safe, 7 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossups)

This would mean the Democrats gain 5 Govenorships. At this time, I see it as being very possible that Republicans will be unable to flip any currently held Democrat statehouse. I hope of course that some of the tossups could wind up going Republican in the end, but if not, there is always Louisiana in 2007 and Washington and other states in 2008.

NFL Week 7

1. Lions (1-5) at Jets (3-3)
2. Packers (1-4) at Dolphins (1-5)
3. Steelers (2-3) at Falcons (3-2)
4. Jaguars (3-2) at Texans (1-4)
5. Patriots (4-1) at Bills (2-4)
6. Panthers (4-2) at Bengals (3-2)
7. Chargers (4-1) at Chiefs (2-3)
8. Eagles (4-2) at Buccaneers (1-4)
9. Broncos (4-1) at Browns (1-4)
10. Vikings (3-2) at Seahawks (4-1)
11. Redskins (2-4) at Colts (5-0)
12. Cardinals (1-5) at Raiders (0-5)
13. Giants (3-2) at Cowboys (3-2)

Score thus far: 50-37 (57%)