Governor Race Recaps and Updated Classifications

October 20, 2006
18 Days Until Election Day

First, let me review how I originally called all the Governor Races of the Day and after that, I will list the changes I now find prudent to make. Final predictions for the winners only in all these races will be posted on the weekend or Monday before the election.

AL- Likely R
AK- Tossup (R)
AZ- Likely D
AR- Tossup (D)
CA- Leans R
CO- Tossup (R)
CT- Safe R
FL- Leans R
GA- Likely R
HI- Likely R
ID- Safe R
IL- Tossup (R)
IA- Tossup (R)
KS- Likely D
ME- Tossup (D)
MD- Tossup (R)
MA- Leans D
MI- Tossup (R)
MN- Leans R
NE- Safe R
NV- Leans R
NH- Likely D
NM- Likely D
NY- Safe D
OH- Leans D
OK- Likely D
OR- Leans D
PA- Leans D
RI- Leans R
SC- Likely R
SD- Safe R
TN- Likely D
TX- Likely R
VT-Likely R
WI- Tossup (D)
WY- Safe D

So, based on those results, I would have a conclusion of the Democrats having 23 Governors in 2007 (8 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 6, Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup) and Republicans holding 27 Governors (6 Holdovers, 4 Safe, 6 Likely, 5 Leans, 6 Tossup). This would result in a net pickup for the Democrats of 1 Governorship.

As a Republican, I would have been very happy with that result, but as I began composing the above listings in late July and concluded this week, I have several changes that I feel necessary to make, indicating that both parties have improved their prospects in some races, and in some cases, who I think will win has also changed.

Here are the changes-

AK- Tossup (R) is now Leans R
AR- Tossup (D) is now Leans D
CA- Leans R is now Likely R
CO- Tossup (R) is now Leans D
FL- Leans R is now Likely R
HI- Likely R is now Safe R
IL - Tossup (R) is now Leans D (this one is tough for me to do. I still think the race is extremely fluid but I have become a little more pessimistic about the result in my state. I very much hope to be wrong on several races, especially this one)
IA- Tosusp (R) is now Tossup (D)
ME- Tossup (D) is now Leans D
MI- Tossup (R) is now Tossup (D)
MN- Leans R is now Tossup (R)
NH- Likely D is now Safe D
NM- Likely D is now Safe D
OH- Leans D is now Likely D
OR- Leans D is now Tossup (D)
PA- Leans D is now Likely D
TN- Likely D is now Safe D

Based on these updates, my totals now flip to 27 Democrats (8 Holdovers, 5 Safe, 5 Likely, 5 Leans, 4 Tossups) and 23 Republicans (6 Holdovers, 5 Safe, 7 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossups)

This would mean the Democrats gain 5 Govenorships. At this time, I see it as being very possible that Republicans will be unable to flip any currently held Democrat statehouse. I hope of course that some of the tossups could wind up going Republican in the end, but if not, there is always Louisiana in 2007 and Washington and other states in 2008.