Saturday, February 16, 2013

Election 2012 Predictions Review

The time has come to get around to examining the predictions I made regarding last year's elections. It was not a great cycle for my party but I remain optimistic about future elections this year, next year, and up thru the election of a new President in 2016.

At the Presidential level, I correctly called 46 states. That is one state better than how I did in 2008, but I liked the outcome of the 2004 Presidential election better, when I just missed one state. I had hoped and predicted that Mitt Romney would have taken the tossup states of Colorado, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia, and if he had, he would have won the Electoral College. Of course, that did not happen, despite the fact that all of those states were relatively close. Let's get those states and win the White House next time, but not before we focus on the midterm cycle.

Now, on to the list of incorrect predictions and final tallies for the races I formally predict every two years.

Governors: Two incorrect Republican victory predictions

1. Rick Hill- MT
2. Ovide Lamontagne- NH

2012 total: 9-2 (82%)

2006: 35-1 (97%)
2008: 10-1 (91%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)

U.S. Senate: Five incorrect Republican predictions

1. Richard Mourdock- IN
2. Denny Rehberg- MT
3. Rick Berg- ND
4. George Allen- VA
5. Tommy Thompson- WI

2012 total: 28- 5 (85%)

2006: 31-2 (94%)
2008: 34-1 (97%)
2010 34-3 (92%)

U.S. House:

I need to make a couple brief notes to begin with. In the 35th District of California, two Democrats faced off in the general election and incumbent Joe Baca was knocked off by Gloria Negrete McLeod. I had given the edge in that matchup to Baca. However, since all of the professional pundits just keep score on whether or not the party predicted was correct or not, I will do that, and there is no reason to include that race.

Next, in the 11th District of Michigan, I correctly predicted that Republican Kerry Bentivolio would win the general election. However, I also said that he would win a Special Election the same day over Democrat Syed Taj. Call it poor research or whatever, but I totally missed the fact that Taj was not even on the ballot for the special election, and another Democrat, David Curson, won that race. Go figure. Anyways, the incredibly short Congressional career of Mr. Curson is now over,  and since that was just a special election, there is no need to include it among my 435 general election predictions.

Incorrect Republican Predictions:

1. AZ 1 Jonathan Paton
2. CA 7 Dan Lungren
3. CA 36 Mary Bono Mack
4. CA 52 Brian Bilbray
5. FL 18 Allen West
6. GA 12 Lee Anderson
7. IL 10 Robert Dold
8. IL 17 Bobby Schilling
9. MA 6 Richard Tisei
10. NV 4 Danny Tarkanian
11. NH 1 Frank Guinta
12. NH 2 Charlie Bass
13. NY 18 Nan Hayworth
14. NC 7 Dan Rouzer
15. TX 23 Quico Canseco
16. UT 4 Mia Love

Incorrect Democrat Predictions, the ones I was happy to be wrong about:

1. KY 6 Ben Chandler III
2. MI 1  Gary McDowell
3. NY 27 Kathy Hochul
4. PA 12 Mark Critz

2012 totals: 415-20 (95%)

2006: 416-19 (96%)
2008: 418-17 (96%)
2010: 414-21 (95%)

My House results are quite consistent throughout the years, and I believe pretty strong overall. I am somewhat surprised that I did not do worse than I did in 2010, when in retrospect, I was too conservative in predicting Republican wins, especially since this was the first Congressional cycle after redistricting.


Overall Results:

452- 27 (94%)

2006: 482-22 (96%)
2008: 462-19 (96%)
2010: 482-27 (95%)