U.S. House Predictions: New York- North Dakota

11 Days Until Election Day

New York

 

On June 6, I predicted a special election for NY 19 would be Tossup (R). In August though, that was not the case as Democrat Pat Ryan won in an upset over Republican Marc Molinaro. This result pumped up Democrats, at least at the time, as it was seen as a referendum on abortion. Both the winning and losing candidate are now running against different opponents in November. I did get one other New York special election correct on that day at least.

1. Bridget Fleming D vs. Nick LaLota R (Biden 50%)- Leans R

2. Jackie Gordon D vs. Andrew Garbarino R (Trump 50%)- Likely R

3. Robert Zimmerman D vs. George Santos R (Biden 54%)- Leans D

4. Laura Gillen D vs. Anthony D'Esposito R (Biden 57%)- Leans D

5. Gregory Meeks D vs. Paul King R (Biden 81%)- Safe D

6. Grace Meng D vs. Tom Zmich R (Biden 65%)- Safe D

7. Nydia Velazquez D vs. Juan Pagan R (Biden 81%)- Safe D

8. Hakeem Jeffries D vs. Yuri Dashevsky R (Biden 76%)- Safe D

9. Yvette Clarke D vs. Menachem Raitport (Conservative) (Biden 75%)- Safe D

10. Dan Goldman D vs. Benine Hamdan R (Biden 85%)- Safe D

11. Max Rose D vs. Nicole Malliotakis R (Trump 53%)- Leans R

12. Jerry Nadler D vs. Mike Zumbluskas R (Biden 85%)- Safe D

13. Adriano Espaillat D (Biden 88%)- Safe D

14. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez D vs. Tina Forte R (Biden 78%)- Safe D

15. Ritchie Torres D vs.Stylo Sapaskis R (Biden 85%)- Safe D

16. Jamaal Bowman D vs. Miriam Levitt Flisser R (Biden 71%)- Likely D

17. Sean Patrick Maloney D vs. Mike Lawler R (Biden 55%)- Tossup (D)

18. Pat Ryan D vs. Colin Schmitt R (Biden 53%)- Leans D

19. Josh Riley D vs. Marc Molinaro R (Biden 51%)- Tossup (D)

20. Paul Tonko D vs. Liz Joy R (Biden 59%)- Likely D

21. Matt Castelli D vs. Elise Stefanik R (Trump 55%)- Likely R

22. Francis Conole D vs. Brandon Williams R (Biden 53%)- Tossup (R)

23. Max Della Pia D vs. Nick Langworthy R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

24. Steve Holden D vs. Claudia Tenney R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

25. Joe Morelle D vs. La'Ron Singletary R (Biden 59%)- Likely D

26. Brian Higgins D vs. Steven Sams R (Biden 61%)- Safe D

NY current: 19 D, 8 R

NY predicted: 19 D, 7 R

Current total: 165 D, 119 R

Predicted:

154 D  (102 Safe, 25 Likely, 17 Lean, 10 Tossup)

129 R  (77 Safe, 23 Likely, 17 Lean, 12 Tossup)

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North Carolina

 

1. Don Davis D vs. Sandy Smith R (Biden 53%)- Leans D

2. Deborah Ross D vs. Christine Villaverde R (Biden 64%)- Safe D

3. Barbara Gaskins D vs. Greg Murphy R (Trump 62%)- Safe R

4. Valerie Foushee D vs. Courtney Geels R (Biden 67%)- Safe D

5. Kyle Parrish D vs. Virginia Foxx R (Trump 60%)- Safe R

6. Kathy Manning D vs. Christian Castelli R (Biden 56%)- Likely D

7. Charles Graham D vs. David Rouzer R (Trump 56%)- Likely R

8. Scott Huffman D vs. Dan Bishop R (Trump 67%)- Safe R

9. Ben Clark D vs. Richard Hudson R (Trump 53%)- Likely R

10. Pam Genant D vs. Patrick McHenry R (Trump 69%)- Safe R

11. Jasmine Beach-Ferrara D vs. Chuck Edwards R (Trump 54%)- Likely R

12. Alma Adams D vs. Tyler Lee R (Biden 64%)- Likely D

13. Wiley Nickel D vs. Bo Hines R (Biden 50%)- Tossup (R)

14. Jeff Jackson D vs. Pat Harrigan R (Biden 58%)- Leans D

NC current: 5 D, 8 R

NC predicted: 6 D, 8 R

Current total: 170 D, 127 R

Predicted:

160 D  (104 Safe, 27 Likely, 19 Lean, 10 Tossup)

137 R   (81 Safe, 26 Likely, 17 Lean, 13 Tossup)

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North Dakota

1. Cara Mund I vs .Kelly Armstrong R (Trump 66%)- Likely R

ND current: 0 D, 1 R

ND predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current total: 170 D, 128 R

Predicted:

160 D  (104 Safe, 27 Likely, 19 Lean, 10 Tossup)

138 R   (81 Safe, 27 Likely, 17 Lean, 13 Tossup)