Vermont Governor- Race of the Day

24 Days Until Election Day

Vermont Governor

Status: Republican Incumbent 

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

These days, there are not many Republicans at all that I am hoping win elections. Despite my profound disagreements with Democrats (and with the recognition that some of their nominees are completely unacceptable), my top political concern is seeing whatever needs to happen to stop the damage that Donald Trump has inflicted on America and the world, and prevent him from doing even worse. I have been Never Trump since Day 1 and will be proud of that long after all remnants of his political strength have been relegated to the ash heap of history. In this race however, the Republican nominee is pretty good. He has seemingly been on the same side as me regarding Trump from the start. It is important for our political system and our democracy to at least have some people like him elected to represent one of the two major parties .The question this year, of all years, are if the voters in a very blue state will agree,

 

I have politically understated Governor Phil Scott before. Every two years, Vermont elects a Governor, something that only neighboring New Hampshire does, and while I always think he is going to win, I am always cognizant that the Green Mountain State is extremely liberal. On the surface, it appears incredibly odd that it elects a Republican to the office of Governor (and did so two years ago for Lt. Governor separately as well.) A Republican running for federal office in Vermont stands virtually no chance.  Clearly, voters have felt that Scott has been doing a good job though as Governor and he has won reelection by some massive margins. The citizens definitely seem to realize that he is not a Trump guy as evidenced by his history of calling for Trump to resign, supporting impeachment, and for a currently elected Republican, the pretty unique example of his saying he voted for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris against Trump. At the same time, whatever support Trump does have in Vermont has seemingly stuck with the moderate Republican Governor. There seems to have been a consensus across party lines in the state that it might be good to have a Governor to at least counterbalance a very liberal legislature controlled by Democrats and their third party left-wing associates.

 

In discussing the Vermont Governorship, I am required to mention a quirk of their system. If no candidate receives at least 50 percent of the vote, the state legislature would formally elect the Governor. That body is strongly controlled by Democrats but there seems to be an informal expectation that if this situation were to ever arise, the legislature would the person who finished in first with a plurality of the vote regardless of party. To that, I say, yeah right. In these days, whomever controls the legislature would find a way to justify electing a member of their party.

 

Since the 2002 election, moderate Republicans have won almost all of the Gubernatorial contests. At times, the opposition vote has been split between a liberal nominee of the Democrats and an even more openly socialist candidate of the Progressive Party. The sides did unite to win three elections between 2008 and 2014, but in 2016 Scott won the open Governorship. A businessman and former stock car race driver, Scott had served a decade in the State Senate and then won his first term as Lt. Governor in 2010. He has been winning statewide elections every two years for a while now. He was comfortably reelected in 2018, even in a bad cycle for Republicans, and amazingly since has increased his winning margin. In 2024, Scott won by a staggering margin of 73-22. Conventional wisdom would say that such a politician, running again two years later, should probably be considered "safe."

 

This year, the Governor seemed somewhat more uncertain as if he would run again. If he had not, Democrats would stand a great chance of picking up the office, but when he announced his reelection, the incumbent automatically became a heavy favorite. He did not face a primary challenge in August. It is almost as if Donald Trump does not even know Phil Scott exists as a Republican who has been opposing him for a decade.

 

If nothing else these days, Democrats and Progressives in Vermont have realized they need to band together for a Gubernatorial election and are cross-nominating candidates. Of course, Bernie Sanders of Vermont is still one of the most prominent Democrats in the United States Senate, who is not even technically a Democrat and has never run under their banner. Besides the Lt. Governor, all other statewide officers in Vermont are Democrats and while they would have been expected to run if the election were an open one, they were not intending to take on Scott. Two women sought the nomination, both pretty left, and the more left one was nominated. Little known economist Amanda Janoo, whose father came from Malaysia, defeated the more establishment backed Aly Richards, a former Gubernatorial aide, who had recently been the head of a policy advocacy group by the narrow margin of 49-47. While clear allies, neither women seem to be members of the LGBTQ community, which had in recent cycles produced some of the nominees who faced Scott.

 

A referendum on Scott's performance as Governor will produce another win, probably by a large margin, though it is hard to see how he could improve on 73 percent. I think Scott will win this race, but at least according to some recent polls, something is going on in Vermont. It could be that the R label next to someone's name there, in this particular year, in a state that borders Canada, could be a major anchor. Scott has been walking a political tightrope as an anti-Trump Republican for some time now and has not really staggered at all, but one cannot ignore the risks for him on both sides of the political divide.

 

The polls in the state may just be way off. Perhaps MAGA folks are not wanting to admit they are going to vote for Scott again, as they must have been doing before, considering his options. A recent poll though shows Scott only ahead of Janoo 46-43, in the same survey that shows the Democrat leading the incumbent Republican Lt. Governor by an extremely large margin. If a political tsunami is coming this November, any Republican in Vermont might be washed away, and in the case of Governor Scott, that would be unfortunate.

My hunch is though is that such a concern is probably a little overblown. While Janoo might have grassroots support, the voters are likely to stick with the Governor they know and respect. There is no way he is going to win again in the 70s and almost certainly not in the 60s either. However, I think Scott will pull it off this tome by at least a few points. 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

19 D (2 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

15 R (2 Safe, 5 Likely, 6 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

25 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

23 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 6 Likely, 5 Leans, 2 Tossup)