North Carolina U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

48 Days Until Election Day

North Carolina U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

This year, when Democrats are hoping to pick up several Senate seats, the most likely one looks like it could come from a southern state that Donald Trump has won three times. The situation in North Carolina might even look better than a couple of states where the party is trying to hold on to seats they currently control.

 

The seat in the Tar Heel State is open mostly because Donald Trump dislikes Republican Senator Thom Tillis and was prepared to oppose him in a primary. Had he done so, Tillis likely would have lost, so he saw the writing on the wall and withdrew last June from what was expected to be a bid for a third term. Tilis had twice won very close races in the state, both with just 49 percent of the vote. In 2014, he defeated a Democrat incumbent. In 2020, he looked like he might go out as a one-termer himself, until a sex scandal involving his Democrat opponent broke late in the campaign and that likely gave him another six years. Republicans have won most Senate races in North Carolina over the past couple generations, and Tillis kept that streak intact. If he were the Republican nominee now, this race would probably at least be a little bit closer. The mainstream Republican's vote against Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" last year was the last straw for the the current President though and he took to Truth Social late one night to blast the Senator. Tillis would soon say he would not run again and claimed he was leaning against it beforehand anyway. With the end of his political career before him, Tillis has gone on to be one of the more critical Republican Senators in speaking out against some Trump actions, and especially those of Administration officials. He continually claims that Trump is getting "bad advice" as he seems unwilling to totally break with the the man himself, but there is definite bad blood there. Still, Tillis was recently the deciding vote in confirming Todd Blanche as Attorney General, after claiming he received some key concessions on Trump's desire for a weaponization fund and the claim that it is now dead. If someone were to ask the Senator directly, he would probably confirm that he thinks it will be unlikely a Republican will win the race to succeed him.

 

With Tillis gone from the race, the names of lots of Republicans were bandied about. One that quickly received a lot of notice was that of North Carolina native (and Florida resident) Lara Trump, the daughter in law of Donald. At the time she was the Republican National Committee Vice Chair and had been mentioned as a possible candidate for Senate in the state four years earlier as well as a Florida possibility this cycle. Many Republicans across the country breathed a sigh of relief when the unproven Lara Trump, a true nepo in-law, announced she would not run. However, Trump's quick choice for the nomination might not have been close to the strongest Republican in the state either.

 

Attorney Michael Whatley had never run for office before, but he had a long history of being around Republican politics as a staffer and campaign official. As Chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party, he became a key defender of Trump and then was rewarded in 2024 when Trump picked him to lead the RNC (with Lara Trump as the #2.) In November, the Republican won what had been considered a swing state and Trump was very pleased with Whatley's performance. That seemingly was enough for him to think that Whatley would be a strong enough candidate in his own right and that North Carolina  was red enough for him to win an open Senate seat against a far more proven Democrat opponent.

 

A few Republicans were already planning to challenge Tillis in the primary and did not leave the race. With Trump's support though, it was a given that Whatley would win the early March primary. Against six opponents, he took 65 percent, which to me seems a bit underwhelming for a candidate who had such advantages in the party. An attorney named Don Brown, who had finished fourth in a 2024 U.S. House primary, took second with 16 percent. Some right ring figures endorsed him, perhaps feeling that Whatley was too "establishment."

 

While Republicans have won most big federal races in North Carolina, Democrats have continued to have much stronger showing in state government contests, especially in races for Governor. This year, their candidate for Senate is likely the strongest possible politician his party could have put up. First elected Attorney General of North Carolina in 2000, Roy Cooper was politically cautious enough to pass up opportunities to run for Governor until he did so in 2016 and narrowly ousted in the incumbent Republican. For years later, Cooper won reelection by five points, both victories happening while Trump was carrying the state. With term limits in place, Democrats managed to win the Governorship against in 2024, by an even bigger margin. That is likely due to the fact that the Republican candidate, bombastic African-American MAGA supporter Mark Robinson, who was the surprise winner for Lt. Governor four years earlier was an incredibly weak and divisive candidate. That was the case before all sorts of internet message board stuff came to light that was shall we say extremely freaky in nature. Robinson denied he had said those things, but his candidacy was cooked and Democrat Josh Stein easily won. This matters more because it is believed that Roy Cooper was unwilling to be considered for Kamala Harris's running-mate that year because whenever he left the state, it would make Robinson the acting Governor. Many believed that Cooper would have been a strong asset to the national ticket as a somewhat moderate southerner with executive experience. With that in mind, he might have also been a strong general election Presidential candidate, but at the age of 69. that ship has largely passed. Nonetheless, Cooper, now out of elected office for the first time in 38 years, was recruited to run for Senate. Whether the former Governor truly wants to go to Washington D.C. to become a freshman Senator or if he just felt a need to do what is best for his party is perhaps open to interpretation.

 

Democrats already had an announced candidate for Senate. That was Wiley Nickel, who had won an open seat in the U.S. House in 2022. Republican state legislators (who often clashed with Cooper as Governor) withdrew the lines for 2024 though and Nickel did not have a path to reelection so instead he said he would run for Senate in 2026. He might have been a credible statewide candidate, but the appeal of Cooper was far stronger and left Nickel in a position of not being able to raise much money until a decision by the former Governor was made. When Cooper did run, Nickel had no real choice but to step aside and instead decided to run for Wake County District Attorney. He is unopposed in that race this November, and will have to consider the new job a consolation prize from what he had thought would be a longer career on Capitol Hill. In the meantime, Cooper took 92 percent in the primary for Senate against five little known opponents.

 

From the outset, polls have shown Cooper ahead of Whatley in the general election by various margins. Republicans have insisted that the conservative nature of North Carolina will cause the race to tighten and things will look better once voters "get to know" the Republican nominee. Frankly, Whatley comes across as far from any sort of dynamic or appealing political figure. He simply is a yes man for Trump, and while there are a substantial number of voters who want exactly that, there are probably not going to be anywhere near enough of them to carry the day this year. Today, Trump appeared at a campaign rally in North Carolina and promised victory for his hand-chosen candidate, but few in the party are said to actually believe Whatley can pull it out and major financial assistance is unlikely to happen.

 

This situation has Whatley and his party trying to throw whatever they can against Cooper, targeting his record as Governor, and a particular issue during the Covid pandemic early days when he released inmates from state prisons. Cooper, who left office with fairly high approval numbers, said he was ordered to do that in 2020 by a judge and that other states, and the federal government under Trump also did the same. Democrats are also playing rough, with ads claiming that Whatley promoted a child sex offender to positions within the North Carolina Republican Party. The nominee claims that individual was merely an unpaid volunteer who was already involved before Whatley became party chair.

 

Politics are polarized these days and it would be foolish to suggest that a lot of North Carolina voters are simply not going to vote for anyone who is a Democrat. This open race is unlikely to be a blowout, but Cooper has some major advantages and it would come as quite a surprise if he did not win this race that many in his party are already putting in the bank. For now, I am cautiously calling it "Leans Democrat", but this contest might just be on the edge of a double digit margin pickup for Cooper, as Thom Tillis looks forward to retirement, and what I think will be years of being even more negative publicly towards Donald Trump.

 

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

11 D (5 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 1 Tossup)

13 R (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

45 D (34 holdover, 5 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

44 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)