Sunday, November 04, 2012

Election 2012 Predictions and Preview- U.S. House

2 Days Until Election Day

Below are the changes I have made to my previously posted U.S. House predictions. Race by race, these are much harder to predict this year, because of all the new and reconfigured districts across the country. Thus, I am not going to make all that many changes.

U.S. House:


12. John Barrow D vs. Lee Anderson R (McCain 56%)- Tossup (R)- change from Leans R


11. Bill Foster D vs. Judy Biggert R (Obama 61%)- Tossup (D)- change from Tossup (R)
12. Bill Enyart D vs. Jason Plummer R (Obama 55%)- Tossup (D)- change from Tossup (R)


6. Ben Chandler III D vs. Andy Barr R (McCain 54%)- Tossup (D)- change from Leans D


6. John Tierney D vs. Richard Tisei R (Obama 57%)- Tossup (R)- change from Tossup (D)


3. Steve Pestka D vs. Justin Amash R (Obama 50%)- Leans R- change from Likely R

New York

1. Tim Bishop D vs. Randy Altschuler R (Obama 51%)- Tossup (D)- change from Leans D

Rhode Island

1. David Cicilline D vs. Brendan Doherty R (Obama 67%)- Tossup (D)- change from Leans D


1. Suzan DelBene D vs. John Koster R (Obama 56%)- Leans D-(both regular and special)- change from Tossup (D)

Current totals: 193 D, 242 R

New totals:
189 Democrats (101 Safe, 60 Likely, 17 Leans, 11 Tossup)
246 Republicans (136 Safe, 72 Likely, 22 Leans, 16 Tossup)

Republican net gain of 4

There will not be major changes in the U.S. House this cycle. Redistricting and reapportionment tended to help Republicans across the country, with the exception of my state of Illinois. While it was always a long-shot for Democrats to regain a House majority in 2012, they have to be at least somewhat disappointed with many of these individual races and the missed opportunities to gain more seats, or to simply gain seats at all.

When all the Tossups are taken into consideration, the best the Democrats can hope for is probably a 12 seat pickup, while it is possible the Republicans could have a very good night at the House level and gain as many as 15 seats.

For a matter of background on my U.S. House predictions in the last three cycles:

2006: 416-19 (96%)
2008: 418-17 (96%)
2010:  414-21 (95%)