Monday, November 07, 2011

2011 Gubernatorial Races- Final Predictions

2011 Gubernatorial Races- Final Predictions

There is not a whole lot to say in this post. Election Day 2010 was action packed, as will be Election Day 2012.

Election Day 2011, which will occur tomorrow, is of course a far smaller deal, and even the two remaining Gubernatorial contests continue to not have much in the way of suspense. Already within the past month, as I correctly predicted, sitting Governors in Louisiana and West Virginia defeated challengers.


No changes whatsoever in the Bluegrass State over the past few months. This race has never developed into anything competitive, despite the massive advantage that Republicans tend to have in statewide federal races.

Democrat Steve Beshear will easily win a second term over Republican opponent David Williams. The GOP will probably be content if they manage to hang on to the one statewide down ballot office they currently hold.

Prediction: Safe Democrat

Williams campaign link:


Late polling indicates that both major party Gubernatorial nominees in the state are reasonably popular, but ultimately, it will be the conservative makeup of the electorate, along with the popularity of outgoing GOP Governor Haley Barbour that is likely to elect Lt. Governor Phil Bryant over his opponent, Democrat Johnny DuPree.

Barbour was believed to be behind another GOP candidate in the primary, but is now working to elect Bryant as his successor. Turnout might be unpredictable and the state's African-American population may turn out in high numbers for DuPree, the state's first black candidate for Governor in modern times, so there is an outside chance that Bryant's win, though substantial, will not be an all out blowout. In a mirror image of Kentucky, Mississippi Democrats will be happy to hang to the one statewide down ballot office they currently hold.

Prediction: Likely Republican

Bryant campaign link: