Iowa Governor- Race of the Day

75 Days Until Election Day

Iowa Governor

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

Outlook: Likely Republican

Iowa has historically been a swing political state. It was once considered very Republican. Then, it was largely looked at as being pro-Democrat. After all, it was one of the few states carried by Michael Dukakis in 1988. At times, it has looked extremely competitive, but now, Iowa is seen as conservative and heavily inclined towards the GOP. It is also interesting to realize that in Gubernatorial elections, Democrats have only won three times since 1964, composed of a winning streak between 1998 and 2006.

In determining how to classify this race, I was very close to saying "Safe Republican", but for now, the conservative option is to say Likely. There was still a competitive race four years ago and it is hard to envision a complete blowout in the Hawkeye State, but it very well may happen.

Republican Kim Reynolds is seeking her second full term. Iowa Governors have held the office for a long time before, such as the two stints that Terry Branstad was the Chief Executive. When he became Ambassador to China in 2017, Reynolds moved up from Lt. Governor to the top job. It was quite an accomplishment for the woman who did not officially graduate college until she was Lt. Governor. Before getting involved in local politics, she raised her children and held part time jobs such as  supermarket cashier. Reynolds said a turning point in her life happened in 2000, when she received her second DUI in less than a year. That prompted her to enter treatment and in office she has promoted efforts to help ex-felons re-acclimate to society, including voting rights.

Seeking a full term as Governor in 2018, Reynolds was behind in some polls headed into the election but won 50-48. Since then, she has been able to put more of a stamp on her Governorship and is considered a heavy favorite for reelection. Like many Governors, especially Republicans, she was met with resistance though on both sides during the Covid outbreak, with some thinking her efforts were either too strict or too lax. As the months went on, she started to side more with conservatives on the issue and in 2022 was chosen to deliver the Republican Response to Joe Biden's State of the Union Address.

After some electoral setbacks and a mess surrounding the botched 2020 Iowa Caucuses, which threaten its longtime status as First in the Nation, Iowa Democrats are going through some tough times. While Reynolds was running unopposed for Republicans, only two Democrats, not considered in the top-tier of the opposition party stepped forward to oppose her. One would drop out leaving the nomination uncontested for marketing consultant Deidre DeJear. She is seeking to become Iowa's first African-American statewide official. In 2018, she narrowly won a primary for Secretary of State, and then had a reasonably respectful outcome, holding the incumbent Republican to an eight point win. Running for Governor after losing a downballot race in a politician's last attempt typically does not work out however.

In Iowa, candidates name their running-mates after the primary. There was no suspense that Reynolds would be running again with Lt. Governor Adam Gregg, whom she attempted to appoint to the post in 2017, but apparently did not officially hold the job until after the 2018 election. When Reynolds become Iowa's first woman Governor, there was some balance in the fact that Gregg is the first man to  hold the post of Lt. Governor since 1987. He is just 39 years old and is likely a contender to try to move up to higher office in the future. DeJear found it somewhat difficult to find someone to run an uphill race. She selected Eric Van Lacker as her pick for Lt. Governor. The Clinton County Auditor had just lost in a landslide the week earlier in a primary for Secretary of State. I wonder how the winner of that Secretary of State primary felt about the development.

Polls show Reynolds ahead of DeJear by a solid margin and there should not be much drama at all about the eventual outcome. If Democrats are motivated to come out to vote for Governor, the U.S Senate race, and three (out of four) very competitive House races, this contest could at least tighten up somewhat towards the end.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

6 D (4 Likely. 2 Leans) 

7 R (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

12 D (6 Holdovers, 4 Likely, 2 Leans)

15 R (8 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans)