Oklahoma U.S. Senate B- Race of the Day

45 Days Until Election Day

Oklahoma U.S. Senate- B

Status: Republican Open

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Likely Republican

Oklahoma has two nationally ranked College Football programs this season and also has two U.S. Senate races on the ballot. This race is a special election. The winner will serve for four years before running again during the seat's regularly scheduled cycle. This is necessary because Republican Jim Inhofe is resigning when the new Congress comes into office. Soon to be 88 years old, the Senator was recently reelected in 2020. He had said it would be his final term but later made the announcement that he will be leaving much sooner, though he is not known to have any major health issues. The cantankerous conservative first ran for office in 1966, when Oklahoma Republicans were much rarer. In 1974, he was essentially a sacrificial lamb as the party's nominee for Governor. Inhofe had a few other political ups and downs before being elected to Congress in 1986. In 1994, he won the seat held by a Democrat, also in a special election, which seems more common for Oklahoma Senate seats than anywhere else, and a Sooner Democrat has not been able to return to the Senate since.

As soon as Inhofe announced his intentions, he endorsed a successor,  and at first, it was thought this would be a big boost for the Senator's Chief of Staff Luke Holland. However, Inhofe's endorsement would wind up holding no great sway for the young first time candidate as many other Oklahoma Republicans also had their eye on the office. State Senator Nathan Dahm, who was mounting a pro-MAGA primary challenge to Senator James Lankford switched his campaign to seek the open seat instead. The field also included, surprisingly, Scott Pruitt, who had went from being Oklahoma's Attorney General to Donald Trump's EPA Administrator, before resigning the federal post in 2018 while under numerous ethical clouds. Pruitt did not seem to run an extremely active Senate campaign after getting into the race.

With several other candidates also running, it was clear that the top two Republican finishers in the June primary would have to wait until a late August run-off to settle things. Dahm, Holland, and Pruitt were out of the running after the first round, receiving 12, 11, and five percent of the vote respectively.

While the race would be heading to a run-off it was clear that first place finisher, Congressman Markwayne Mullin would be the heavy favorite over former State House Speaker T.W. Shannon. After all, Mullin already won 44 percent in the initial voting, while Shannon took 18 percent. With the writing on the wall apparent, Trump issued his endorsement of Mullin.

Mullin is a member of the Cherokee Nation, as are other Oklahoma political figures, including the current Governor. He would be the only Native American in the U.S. Senate if he is elected this fall. At a young age, Mullin took over his family's plumbing company and became known as sort of a plumbing and home improvement expert in the state through a radio program he hosted. In 2012, the plumber ran as a pro-Tea Party outsider for a Congressional seat, prevailed over a more politically experienced and older opponent in a runoff and was off to Congress to replace a departing Congressman who was then the last remaining Democrat in the delegation. In the House Mullin, a competitive mixed martial artist, was known for his extensive fitness routine and for being very conservative. During the January 6th attack on the Capitol, the Congressman helped barricade the doors of the House, and claimed to have tried to reason with his fellow pro-Trump folks, apparently to no avail, before he Members of the House were moved to a secure location.

 

This was Shannon's second run for the Senate. Like his opponent Mullin, he is also in his early 40s. Shannon is the son of a Chickasaw Native American father and an African-American mother. In 2014, he was highly touted by many national Republicans and Tea Party figures alike, after stepping down as Speaker to run for an open seat. Then Congressman James Lankford had better political connections in the state however and to the surprise of some, won 57 percent to avoid a runoff, while Shannon was far behind with 34 percent. 

In his 2022 political comeback attempt, there was not much in the way of issues that separated Mullin and Shannon. The one issue where there was any difference appeared to be American support for Ukraine, which Shannon said he opposed and criticized the Congressman for having voted in favor of aid to the nation after Russia had invaded. Mullin won the runoff by 30 points and Shannon congratulated his opponent and offered his full support.

Unlike the other Senate seat up this year, Oklahoma Democrats did not have an active primary for this one. They would however, nominate two women with the last name Horn, for both seats. The candidates are not related and former Congresswoman Kendra Horn probably would have preferred to not have to be a running-mate of sorts of cybersecurity professional Madison Horn, who is less well known and a bigger underdog, in the regular election against Lankford. Leading up to the primary and runoff, Kendra Horn frequently had to remind voters that her name would not appear on those ballots, but that they needed to remember to vote for her in November.

In 2018, Kendra Horn won perhaps the biggest U.S. House upset of the cycle, when she defeated a freshman Republican incumbent. While the Oklahoma City based district was considered the best for Democrats in the state, it was still pretty GOP leaning. An attorney, consultant, and former Congressional staffer, Horn had narrowly won the district for her party for the first time in 44 years. She was immediately a top target of Republicans in 2020, especially after she cast a vote in favor of Nancy Pelosi to be Speaker of the House. While Congresswoman Horn stressed her moderate credentials, she could not overcome the larger Presidential turnout, and she was unseated by a female Republican opponent, by four points. 

Horn is very much an underdog in running for the U.S. Senate two years after losing her first attempt to be reelected to the House, but the bench for Oklahoma Democrats is pretty weak to begin with. This race should be somewhat closer than the one for the other seat though. Kendra Horn should have the ability to appeal to some suburban moderate voters while Mullin is seen as more ideologically strident and polarizing than the reelection seeking Lankford, even though they are both very conservative.

There should be some ticket splitting at play in the Senate races. A recent poll has Mullin ahead by 12, which probably justifies classifying this race as "Likely Republican" instead of "Safe Republican", but the difference is close and it could wind up being a landslide. Even if the former Congresswoman makes a respectable showing here, Oklahoma Republicans are pretty assured of putting two Horns up on the proverbial campaign trophy wall.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

11 D (6 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup)

16 R (8 Safe, 4 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far:

47 D (36 Holdover, 6 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

45 R (29 Holdover, 8 Safe. 4 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)