Michigan U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 Michigan U.S. Senate

86 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Open

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (Midwest)

Outlook: Leans Democrat

The Senate balance of power may come down this year to Michigan. The is expected to be hotly contested in the Presidential race all the way to end and there probably will not be many ticket splitters. However, it is worth noting that both Senate nominees, formally chosen last Tuesday, are considered to be less polarizing, and have demonstrated a history of being able to receive cross-over votes, than the people at the top of the ticket have not.

Democrat Debbie Stabenow is retiring after serving four terms in the upper chamber, and four a previous four years in the U.S. House. Before that, Stabenow had a long career in local and state government. Had she run again, she would have been favored as the incumbent, but did see her margins come down a bit in 2018, in a state that Donald Trump had won two years earlier, and which has seen some traditional working class voters move away from Democrats and towards Republicans.

For good reason, many in the party were concerned about this seat when Stabenow decided to step away and all sorts of Democrats looked at running. One of them may have been the ambitious U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, a one-time Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, who has since moved to his husband's home state of Michigan, in a move which many believe he considered as a better base for a future statewide political run for office than the Hoosier State.

Buttigieg did not run however nor did many other prominent Democrats. A couple of African-American female candidates entered the field, and upon not receiving sufficient support dropped out. An Arab-American businessman and activist was eventually disqualified from the ballot over petition issues which is becoming more common in Michigan primaries. This candidate, Nasser Beydoun, had been a staunch critic of Israel and stepped up his rhetoric in regards to the Israeli response to the October 7, 20023 terrorist attacks within the country. Michigan is home to a sizable number of Muslim-Americans and there has been much talk about how issues in the Middle East could play in the state both in regards to Democrat primaries and the general election.

This left a two person field in which the frontrunner was always Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin, who happens to be Jewish. With experience in the CIA and the Department of Defense, she first won her House seat in 2018 narrowly over a Republican incumbent, in a traditionally GOP district. Slotkin then won two competitive battles for reelection. In the latter, she received an endorsement and campaign appearance by then Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney of Wyoming.

Slotkin was challenged by first time candidate Hill Harper. An African-American actor, Harper, the son of two doctors, has best been known for playing doctors on television series. Most recently, he had a regular role on the ABC series, "The Good Doctor." Harper ran significantly to the left of Slotkin, and tried to play up his support for a "ceasefire" in Gaza. He also claimed that party leaders had promised him campaign contributions if he instead dropped out of the Senate race and challenged controversial House Member Rashida Tlaib in a primary. Despite beliefs that Michigan Democrats could oppose Slotkin over her support for Israel, the Congresswoman easily won last week's primary by a 76-24 margin, including significant support among African-Americans.

The Republican primary process was even more interesting. A large field would start to emerge including candidates who were very pro-MAGA. For a while, it looked like the front-runner could be James Craig, an African-American former police chief of Detroit. He had been seen as a potentially strong Gubernatorial candidate in 2022 but was disqualified from the primary ballot. Craig would drop out of the race and endorse former Congressman Mike Rogers. An Army veteran and former FBI agent, Rogers had served in the Michigan Legislature and then in the U.S. House from 2001-2015. In the years after, he would both be interviewed by Donald Trump to be Director of the FBI, and as emerged as a Trump critic, especially over foreign policy. For a time, Rogers openly considered the possibility of running for President against Trump. He had refused to endorse Trump in both 2016 and 2020 but after entering the Senate primary this cycle, re-emerged as a Trump backer. This would pay off when Trump endorsed his primary candidacy, upon the urging of national Republicans who saw Rogers as the best bet of winning the seat. For this race, Rogers has also had to re-establish a Michigan residency after having moved to Florida.

A couple of other former Republican Congressmen, with checked relationships with Trump were also in this race. Freshman Congressman Peter Meijer, the namesake of a famous Michigan business, was seen as a rising star in the Republican Party, but he voted to impeach Donald Trump after January 6, and was targeted and defeated in a 2022 Republican primary. Instead of perhaps trying to reclaim his House seat against the Democrat who beat the Trump-backed Republican in the last general election, Meijer ran for Senate and by now was back to saying he would support Trump for President again. He never got back on the right side of primary voters though and Meijer dropped out in April. There was also the candidacy of Justin Amash, a long-time iconoclastic isolationist who served as a Republican Congressman after being elected in 2010. In 2019, he left the Republican Party, and voted for the first impeachment of Donald Trump, the only non-Democrat to do so. By the next year, he joined the Libertarian Party, becoming its first ever Congressional Member, and was unsuccessful in trying to become the Presidential nominee of that party, withdrawing from that race before the vote. He did not seek reelection to Congress that year. In 2024, Amash re-joined the Republican Party in order to run for this Senate seat, but did not change his tune on Trump. His views on foreign policy matters have consistently been in contrast with traditional Republicans.

Amash received at least one newspaper endorsement for being a non-Trump supporting option, but Rogers had gathered the vast bulk of party support. Not long before the primary, wealth businessman Sandy Pensler, who had also lost a 2018 primary bid for Senate, ended his more strident pro-Trump 2024 candidacy and endorsed Rogers, whom had already received Trump's endorsement in a move of party unity. On Primary Day, Rogers won with 63 percent with Amash taking 16 percent. Physician Sherry O'Donnell, an even more Pro-Trump Republican received 12 percent and Pensler, whose name remained on the ballot received nine percent. Basically, there was no viable option besides Rogers for a Republican who wanted to oppose Trump on traditional conservative issues.

The general election now comes down to two candidates from the same basic suburban Detroit area of the state. Both Slotkin and Rogers were elected to Congress from competitive districts, although Rogers had an easier district in which to win reelection. Both candidates have significant experience in national security matters. In many ways, this should be a high-minded, substantive debate and campaign. However, there is so much on the line in Michigan and much national money will flow into this race.

Before Joe Biden dropped out, I would have definitely classified this race as a Tossup, and perhaps even with a slight edge to Rogers. There was much talk about how progressive voters, including African-Americans, and Arab-Americans in Michigan, were prepared to sit at home rather than show up to vote for Biden. With Kamala Harris now leading the ticket, that conventional wisdom seems to have shifted. Some will continue to say that Slotkin risks a lack of enthusiasm on the let because of her Jewish identity and association with the CIA. However, many who will be drawn to the polls to vote against Trump, are very likely to vote for the Democrat for Senate also. Rogers will absolutely win the lion's share of Trump fans. The Republican Presidential nominee's endorsement proved useful in winning a Senate primary, but could be a double-edged sword in the general election for swing voters.

This particular race may very well become a Tossup again. The polls have tended to show a narrow lead for Slotkin since even before Biden dropped out. Michigan Republicans have fallen short of victory in a Senate contest since last winning in 1994, and Democrats did very well in the state in the 2022 midterms. With all that in mind, and with the new momentum behind Harris nationally, my sense is that this race has begun to lean in the direction of Democrat Slotkin.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

9 D  (5 Safe, 1 Likely,  2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

2 R  (1 Safe, 1 Leans)

 

Total with predicted thus far:

37 Democrats (28 Holdover, 5 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

40 Republicans (1 Safe, 1 Leans, 38 Holdover)