West Virginia Governor- Race of the Day

 West Virginia Governor

32 Days Until Election Day

Status: Republican Open

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Likely Republican

Over the past few decades, the Mountaineer State has gone from being among the most Democrat states in the country to one of the most Republican. Even 16 years ago, Democrats had the edge in most major statewide and Congressional elections. The Obama years changed that though and mostly white and largely downscale West Virginia has proven to be especially receptive to Donald Trump's brand of populism.

The state will very likely elect a Republican Governor next month, but polling has been scarce, and the party's nominee is perhaps a fairly weak candidate. There will be an automatic advantage though just by nature of the R next to his name. The last time a Democrat won the Governorship was eight years ago when Jim Justice continued a long streak for that party. However, the very wealthy Justice, who had numerous questions regarding his business dealings and potential violations of the law, ran as basically a pro-Trump Democrat. While Trump was cruising in the state in 2016, Justice won the Governorship by 7 points and a 49 percent plurality. In many ways, his political appeal mirrored that of Trump. Upon becoming Governor though, Justice had a contentious relationship with the legislature, and with Trump by his side, switched to the Republican Party a few months into his term. In fact, Justice had once been a Republican, but ran for Governor as a Democrat, because that is the party that won Gubernatorial elections. By 2020 though,. Justice had little difficulty winning another term, this time as a formal Republican. Now term-limited, Justice, 73 years old and unable to stand for long periods of time, is the overwhelming favorite to switch a U.S. Senate seat and perhaps deliver the majority to Republicans.

In May, six Republicans appeared on the ballot attempting to succeed Justice as Governor. Before that, the State Auditor had ended his own Gubernatorial campaign to run instead for Attorney General. The current Attorney General was running for Governor. Patrick Morrisey had won that office three times. Before that, the East Coast native had run for Congress in New Jersey in 2000 and had finished in last place in a Republican primary. He found statewide political success quickly after moving to West Virginia and became the first Republican Attorney General in generations. During that tenure, Morrisey ran for the U.S. Senate in 2018 and won an extremely competitive and nasty Republican primary over a Congressman and former Democrat. Donald Trump campaigned for Morrisey in his race against Democrat incumbent Joe Manchin, a former Governor. While the state had already begun turning on Democrats, Morrisey was not a strong candidate on the stump and did not seem to have the personal appeal that Manchin held. The incumbent held on to win with just under 50 percent, as compared to 46 for Morrsey, with the Libertarian candidate perhaps acting as spoiler. This may prove to be the last time a Democrat wins a Senate seat in West Virginia for a very long time.

While Morrisey easily won a third term as Attorney General in 2020, other Republicans were not willing to concede the Gubernatorial nomination to him. Governor Justice and many in the Republican establishment announced their support for Moore Capito, a 41 year old candidate who was just ending a stint in the State House of Delegates in order to focus on this statewide bid. These endorsements also included that of his mother, United States Senator Shelley Moore Capito. His late grandfather Arch Moore, also served three terms as a Republican Governor of West Virginia. In between the second and third term, Moore had beaten a federal indictment but later was convinced on other charges and served prison time after his final term as Governor. Adding to the family dynamic, Riley Moore, the West Virginia Treasurer, and cousin of Moore Capito, was running for U.S. Congress this year. He won the primary and is likely headed to Washington D.C. to join his aunt in representing the state.

The Republican primary for Governor also included among others, Chris Miller, an auto dealer, known for wacky, often politically themed television commercials, who is the son of Congresswoman Carol Miller, as well as Secretary of State Mac Warner. All of the candidates pledged their loyalty to Donald Trump in a state where he has remained very popular. Moore Capito though was perhaps hampered by sharing a name with his mother Shelley Moore Capito who is seen as a fairly moderate Republican by West Virginia standards. He had also recently been divorced and re-married (to this sister of cable news anchor Leland Vittert.)  Some national conservative activists and organizations put their backing behind Morrisey who wound up raising the most money, and the Attorney General defeated Capito 33 percent to 28 percent. Miller took 20 percent and Warner took 16 percent.

Despite not having had the endorsement of the outgoing Republican Governor, who had cruised to a primary win for U.S. Senate, Patrick Morrisey was once again a nominee for a high profile office, and looked to be an overwhelming favorite to win in November. The only real hope of Democrats had been, as had been speculated in at least one past cycle, that Joe Manchin would run again for his old job as Governor. Manchin, who has fallen significantly out of favor with national Democrats over his voting record and moderate positioning would not run for the job. In fact, he officially became an Independent and declined to seek reelection to the Senate, in what was definitely another major set-back for his (former) party. Democrats seemingly have a credible candidate though in Steve Williams, who has been Mayor of Huntington, the state's second largest city for over a decade. Williams was unopposed in the primary. Still though, after Morrisey upset Capito to become the Republican candidate, some Democrats reportedly went seeking out Manchin again to see if he would be agreeable to being a replacement nominee in place of Williams. Had this scenario somehow come to pass, or if Manchin entered as an Independent in what would become a race between three major candidates, the shape of this particular election might be different. The 77 year old outgoing Senator, who has also flirted in a couple of different ways over the past year with running for President, did not jump into a run for Governor, and has endorsed the Democrat Williams.

Polling in this race has been scarce. A survey from late August has the Republican ahead 49-35. With that in mind, I have to classify this race as Likely Republican instead of Safe Republican. Morrisey is just not a very telegenic politician (not that Jim Justice would be confused with a male model) and perhaps could be struggling to put this race away in a way that the young Capito or other Republicans could have. Williams, who was once a college football player for the Marshall Thundering Herd, seems like he would have once been the kind of Democrat who would have great success in West Virginia. In this era of Trump though, those days for his party are very much gone.

 

 

Governor races predicted:

 

3 D (1 Likely, 2 Leans)

8 R (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total predicted:

23 Democrats (1 Likely, 2 Leans, 20 Holdover)

27 Republicans (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup, 19 Holdover)

 

No net change

 

(updated Gubernatorial predictions and classifications will be posted in a few days)