White House Race- July 21, 2024

Each week has felt like a decade during this recent trip on the road to the White House. Everything that might occur on one day and feels crucial to cover here then seems far less important the next day, and so on and so on.

 

I waited until Sunday to make it a full week since my last post, and sure enough, today was the day that a quite major event happened. Just about a day and a half after my long-standing deadline prediction of a July 19, Joe Biden withdrew from his reelection effort today. In doing so, he joins Democrats Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson to be the only eligible Presidents, under the 22nd Amendment to not seek to continue in office. In both of those years, Democrats would meet in Chicago to nominate their replacement, as will be the case next month. In both of those years, 1948 and 1968, Republicans went on to capture the White House. This year, with an unprecedented stepping down of a candidate after clinching the nomination via primary votes, his party certainly hopes history will not repeat itself.

Let me begin by offering my sincere thanks to President Biden for reaching this decision. I can understand it was not easy. He has not been a President that I felt has done a good job in most (but not all) areas, but I respect his commitment to public service. The decision was in the best interest of the country, and more personally for many others besides me, for his political party. As a once proud Republican, who know believes, especially after the past week, that the Grand Ole' Party as I once knew it is all but dead, I simply want there to be someone who can defeat Donald Trump. Joe Biden was not going to be that person. Now, as it appears Vice President Kamala Harris will be nominated to oppose Trump, she has no guarantee of victory to be sure, but will at least provide a far better opportunity for voters who want to not see Trump elected. Moreover, and of course related, as it was a major campaign obstacle, it had become clear to see that Mr. Biden would not have been physically up to four additional years as President, and for a party or a campaign to have claimed otherwise, would have been fundamentally dishonest.

There are so many unanswered questions, and I expect a very difficult and awkward week or so for Democrats, but at least they now have somewhat of a clean break and a path forward as we approach 100 days until the general election. Republicans, who have been riding high on the prospects of what was looking like a significant chance of victory are now somewhat reeling. They have preparing for years to run against Joe Biden specifically, and while they will still mount a campaign and try to tie his replacement to the unpopular incumbent, they will still have to do some major adjusting of their own.

On the one hand, Republicans will claim that since the primaries had been held, it is too late to swap Biden out for Harris or anyone else. This claim is factually and legally ridiculous. The convention has not been held, nominations have not been formally offered nor accepted, and the Democrats do not have nominees for President and Vice President. Then, at the same time, they will say this move means that Biden is so unhealthy that he must resign at once. This argument sort of weakens their already weak first argument. Indeed, if there is actually a medical reason to show that Biden should not finish his final six months as an elected official, then he should leave. However, I do not think the American people see the situation as that dire. They will live with Biden being President until January, and perhaps be relieved he will only be focusing on the duties of the job and not a difficult campaign, but they would not have wanted him to remain President much more than than these final six months.

Again, so many things happened this week. Right now, the Republican National Convention, featuring a third nomination of Donald Trump, just days after he survived an assassination attempt, almost seems like old news. Republicans felt like they had a strong week, at least for most of it. It is both ironic and mystifying to me that the party I devoted so many years to, now resembles nothing like the one I was proud of, and yet appears or at least appeared to be on the verge of the biggest Presidential victory since I really started following politics. The nomination of J.D. Vance, the junior Ohio Senator, and a man literally half of Trump's age, as Vice President is a sign that this is a MAGA Party and no longer the GOP. Win or lose in 2024, it may be a long time before Republicans, if ever, become the Party of Lincoln or the Party of Reagan again. Right now, it is almost a religious cult, under Trump. only magnified by recent events, and someone like Vance, who is new to the national stage, will likely keep those populist flames burning at the extent of conservatism. It is funny that Trump's new running-mate's last name is only the first two letters off from the previous one he had.

In many ways, Vance is a fascinating character. He has quite a backstory, which he wrote a memoir about which later was a Ron Howard directed movie. His hardscabble youth, background as a Marine,  extreme lack of experience, facial hair, and Indian-American wife all add to a lot of historic or unusual circumstances surrounding his nomination. There is no doubt that Vance is highly intelligent. He may also be the  least principled person in politics today.

I first heard of Vance right around the time Trump won the 2016 election when his book "Hillbilly Elegy" was seen as some sort of guidepost that Democrats and other elites missed out on in explaining why Trump won, by taking voters that used to be heavily Democrat. The way he was talked about in the media, I first assumed Vance identified as a Democrat and was warning his party about why they were suffering politically. As it turns out though, Vance, was, like myself, a Never Trump conservative, who voted for Evan McMullin for President. Likely myself, he spoke openly about not trusting Trump and believing he was bad for conservatism and America. He probably went further than I did, by referring to Trump as "America's Hitler." With his new found fame, Vance either underwent a major conversion or just decided that he really wanted to be elected to office. By the time he ran for the U.S. Senate, in 2022, he was an ardent Trump apologist who claims he was simply wrong about the things he said about Trump. He was running a distant third in the Republican Primary, when Trump endorsed him and he catapulted to the nomination. Trump likely had many questions, but it seems like Vance might have been able to convince him that "America's Hitler" was at some level a compliment. We know Trump admires dictators. Less than two years ago, Vance won the Ohio Senate seat, but at a margin well below what was received by other Buckeye State Republicans. Ohio will go red this year but it is hard to see what political benefit Vance really offers to Trump. It seems like he was picked because Trump was feeling extremely confident about victory.

In his acceptance speech, Vance sounded a whole lot like a class-warring John Edwards type from 2024. His views on the economy and foreign policy and national security are very different than what the Republican Party used to stand for and are indeed far more in line with what Democrats typically advocated.  Vance came out to an anti-George W. Bush song about Iraq and left to "Don't Stop" which was literally the theme of the 1992 Clinton campaign, and anathema to people like me who were supporting Republicans in our youth back then. Democrats will claim, with some accuracy, that Vance is a hard right figure on issues like abortion and advocates a kind of Christian Nationalism over the typical American creeds that someone like Reagan used to hold sacred. It is also true that the Republican Platform has gone out of its way to remove its previous Pro-Life position on abortion. All three legs of the Reagan "stool" in regards to conservatism are no longer operable under Trump-Vance.

The party was very united behind Trump and that cannot be ignored. Eight years ago, at the last Republican in person convention, Ted Cruz was nearly booed off the stage for refusing to endorse Trump at the time and telling listeners to "vote their conscience." One of the people leading the booing was then New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Now, the roles are reversed. Cruz, now much heftier, is now a captain in Trump's Army of Grievance, and Christie (still hefty) was nowhere near Milwaukee this past week. He has abandoned Trump and made clear he cannot vote for him. He is not alone as former Vice President Mike Pence also is gone from the Trump orbit. Indeed, not a single living person who had ever been a Republican nominee for President or Vice President, besides Trump, attended the convention. In fairness, I believe Sarah Palin supports him, but the Quayles, Bushes, Cheneys, Romneys, and Ryans, joined Pence in their absence and in most cases, a clear signal that they will not vote for Trump.  At the same time, former Trump rivals such as Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley appeared, and gave awkward speeches, as a somewhat subdued and ear-bandaged Trump looked down on them with a bit of a smirk, as they offered their endorsements. They clearly have 2028 on their minds, but now have to deal with JD Vance as a further obstacle in the next election. He could even be an incumbent President by then. I will note here that Haley's hypocrisy and duplicity is especially pathetic.

So, what about Trump? All week, we were told that he was profoundly affected by the near miss on his life. That can be understood. Many said he was finding religion for the first time and would be a changed man all about unity. As I said last week, I had my doubts. I am glad the man was not killed, but he cannot change who he is. Of course, separate from all this are the ongoing questions about the Pennsylvania gunman and his motivation. There is much to be learned still, but it seems like he was a troubled and disturbed individual, who like so many other mass shooters, wanted to become famous by doing something so heinous.It does not seem like he wanted to kill Trump simply because he disliked Trump's policies or was watching MSNBC or following The Lincoln Project on Twitter. He picked the rally as a place of opportunity. There are legitimate questions for the Secret Service in how he got to be where he was and why Trump was ever allowed to stage or to remain on stage when such a threat was known. A man lost his life because of that and it may very well be appropriate that the current Director of the Secret Service be relieved from her duties. As can be expected, nutcases on both the left and right are full of conspiracy theories about the entire incident.

Anyways, Trump started off his speech, reading from the teleprompter some words about unity, in what seemed to be a bit of a half-hearted way. He talked about the details of the shooting for the first time ever, and likely exaggerated some key components, but one can be charitable perhaps and forgive him for that. Then, he went off script and off script he did. It was in my view easily the worst and most unworthy Presidential acceptance speech in history. I cannot see how it did Trump any favor with persuadable voters. It just sounded crazy, the more he ranted and rambled and spoke words and went into themes he was not supposed to do. To quote George W. Bush, it was "some weird shit." While it is true that he pretty much did his usual rally shtick, I do not thin the greater audience watching on television were really expecting or wanting to see Trump that way. The people in the hall were behind him, but they became bored and troubled by the length and disjointed nature of the remarks. It was not the kind of raucous rally crowd he usually gets when he goes into his bits about "Crazy Nancy Pelosi" and "the late, great Hannibal Lecter." So, I consider it huge missed opportunity for Trump. Things had been going so well for him as of late (and I will not even get into the Miami Federal Judge he had once appointed dismissing the classified documents case) that he could have given a fairly brief and gracious speech and seen a genuine rise in the polls. However, a lot of voters just already assume that Trump will say outrageous things and just tune him out, even as they decide to vote for him. By now though, it is clear that there is no "new Trump." For better or worse, and most Americans think he is kind of bad, he is the same person he has been for the past nine years.

Many of those people were voting for him because they simply wanted to vote against Joe Biden and that was their binary choice. Now, things have changed.  When the week began, it looked like Biden might stick around after all in the wake of the assassination attempt on Trump, even as Democrats bemoaned that they might be conceding the race to Trump. Then, day by day, things changed behind the scenes, and we will likely one day see it all portrayed in an HBO movie or something like that. Democrats saw data or heard concerns or stories told about Biden's recent behavior that convinced them he must go. Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi and former President Barack Obama were said to be working very hard to get Biden out, as as predicted, things got ugly, and Biden was said to be furious with them.

Previously, Biden said that only the Lord Almighty could get him to step down. On Wednesday afternoon, he said in an interview that perhaps a health concern could get him to change his mind. Reports were already swirling that he was more receptive to reality but publicly his campaign insisted there was no way he would be getting out. By Wednesday though, even before shaking hands with voters in Las Vegas, the President was not feeling well. By early evening, America learned he had tested positive for Covid, and his big speech for that night was cancelled as well as all other events, as he returned to his Delaware beach house to isolate. We can all hope and assume that Mr. Biden only had mild symptoms and will fully recover, but the images of him struggling to get up and down the stairs of Air Force One (while maskless but sick with the virus) were stark. It is never a good time for an 81 year old man to get Covid, but this was the worst timing ever for Biden, especially when compared to the "split screen" of Trump pumping his first while bloodied by a would be assassin.

The virtual end of Joe Biden's 50 year plus political ambitions must have been brutal for him this past weekend, as he continued to recover from the virus and apparently saw data or heard about fundraising problems that would indeed make it impossible for him to remain in the campaign. It is sad, but he really has no one to blame but himself. Of course he bombed the debate horribly, but he never should have run for a second term. He spent weeks after the debate delaying the inevitable, until today. I said years ago that he should perhaps consider resigning as President on January 21, 2023, in order to allow Harris the opportunity to maybe win two terms as an incumbent and perhaps serve just about 10 years as President. Of course, Biden and his family would never have considered that, and what we now know of his physical and political decline in recent months makes clear that this party would have been better off if he "passed the torch" back then.

Again, I salute Mr. Biden for putting country first today. If Donald Trump is indeed the threat to America, that so many of us believe him to be, this was no time to engage in a losing, vanity campaign. I doubt Biden will attend next month's Chicago convention. I hope he just focuses on completing his job and watching over his health in the days he has left in office. Later this week, we are told that Biden will address cameras to offer a more formal statement. There has not been any video or still photos of him in days now. That can be understandable because he is probably feeling and sounding lousy physically and his ego might be hurting far more than that.

Quickly after an official written announcement today, Biden took to his campaign account and quickly endorsed Kamala Harris to replace him as nominee. There has been so much speculation over how Democrats would handle this hypothetical that is now real. There are gigantic doubts about Harris at the top of the ticket, but the political realities of the party are that there is no way they could have passed over a black/Asian woman who was already Vice President in favor of a white person. So, for better or worse, most of the party has rallied hard today around Harris. There are so many historical factors that would be at play with her election as President, even though many also occurred when she became Veep. For one thing, she would be the first President with a Jewish spouse. Sadly, a lot of Democrats (and people also on the far right) might find that troubling.

I do not see any sort of major figure challenging Harris for the nomination and am a bit surprised to hear any chatter at all that West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin might be considering taking her on. Do not get me wrong, I would much prefer him, but he is 74 years old and already left the party a few months back. He said in an interview this morning, it was time for a new generation to take over.  Democrats believe it is in their interest to have the appearance of an "open process" and not an insider type coronation for Harris, but that is basically what it is going to be.

 

So, most of the speculation will about whom Harris might pick for Vice President. I will go into more detail about that next week, and the possible choices, but for all we know, she might might signal a preference for someone by then. It is going to be another crazy unpredictable week in American politics. Maybe she will go completely old school and leave the choice up to the convention delegates on the floor, but probably not. We can be certain that between now and then, there will he a focus on Kamala Harris, unlikely anything she has ever seen before. Her party is hoping she will rise to the occasion, once she appears publicly as a Presidential candidate.

I have written a lot and could have written easily four times as much to cover the past seven days, but this must be wrapped up. There will be many twists and turns over the final 106 days of the campaign, and I am personally still left with the realization that I cannot be for either party these days, but simply against Trumpism, above all else.

Back in the primaries and long before she broke her pledge to not "kiss the ring" Republican candidate Nikki Haley made the prediction.that the first party to retire their 80 year old candidate would win the White House. She may turn out to be very right.